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Serie A
Cagliari
Cagliari
Cagliari
Sassuolo
Sassuolo
Sassuolo
Full Game Analysis
Serie A
Ω OMEGA PICK
64% Sharp Lean
64% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Sassuolo Sassuolo -0.5
"Sassuolo +100 ML (+5.5 EV): 11-6-13 home team vs 7-9-14 Cagliari, 5% model edge on even money"
EV / $100
+4.2
Win Prob
55%
Edge
+5.0%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Sassuolo None
65%
TOTAL under 2.5
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Cagliari

Sassuolo

Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
—
Moneyline
SAS -100 / CAG -100
Win Probability
50% - 50%

Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.

Game Preview
Cagliari @ Sassuolo
until kickoff
Analysis starts at kickoff

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Cagliari @ Sassuolo

+4.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Sassuolo 64% Sharp Lean
"Sassuolo +100 ML (+5.5 EV): 11-6-13 home team vs 7-9-14 Cagliari, 5% model edge on even money"
55% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 55%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +5.0%
Line Movement
Open No open line available
Current Sassuolo -0.5 (-105) / Cagliari +0.5 (-135); Total 2.5; ML Sassuolo +100 / Cagliari +295
Movement No movement data
Sassuolo ML +100 offers +5.5 EV at 55% model prob vs 50% implied; spread EV +4.2 on -0.5 at -105
FULL ANALYSIS
Sassuolo's 11W edges Cagliari's 7W with home advantage at Mapei; model sees 55% win prob vs +100 ML implied 50% for +5.5 EV. Low-scoring leaders (Pinamonti 0.25 GPG) favor under 2.5 despite profitable total tier history. Zero injuries or situational flags keep it clean; fade props given 3% hit rate in lean tier.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Sassuolo -0.5
+4.2 EV 64% 1u
MONEYLINE Sassuolo None
+5.5 EV 65% 1u
TOTAL under 2.5
+2.1 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 67%
Sassuolo -105
  • Model prob 56% vs 51.2% implied; tier calibration shows ML profitable at 58-72% confidence
SPREAD PICK
● 64%
Sassuolo -0.5
  • Sassuolo's home record supports -0.5 edge vs Cagliari's poor away form implied by ML pricing
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 54%
UNDER 2.5
  • Serie A avg 2.4 goals/game; both teams low scoring leaders max 7 goals
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Sassuolo ML -105 +4.8 EV (56% model vs 51% implied); home edge undervalued vs Cagliari road struggles
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