Home › MLB › Detroit Tigers @ New York Mets
MLB
Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers
Tigers
New York Mets
Mets
New York Mets
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +52.4% EV
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
New York Mets New York Mets -1.5
"Mets -1.5 lean: 15% sharp edge + extreme whales ($744k) on home despite 0% model edge"
EV / $100
+1.2
Win Prob
60%
Edge
+9.8%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE New York Mets None
60%
TOTAL under 8.0
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 15.0% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$744739 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 107 trades Kalshi: 1562 trades Largest: $21750

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

Detroit Tigers

New York Mets

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -149 / 125 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -143 / 129 -
Value Line - -157 / 125 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (295) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (148) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.0 (101)
De-Vigged Fair Value 159 / -159 -136 / 136 O/U 108 / -108
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Detroit Tigers

C
Connor Seabold
(RP) 15-day IL — Seabold (ankle) struck out two and gave up one hit and no walks over a scoreless inning in his rehab appearance Friday with Single-A Lakeland.
15-Day-IL
J
Justin Verlander
(SP) 60-day IL — The Tigers transferred Verlander to the 60-day injured list Sunday.
60-Day-IL
K
Kerry Carpenter
(RF) 10-day IL — The Tigers placed Carpenter on the 10-day injured list Sunday due to an AC joint sprain in his left shoulder.
10-Day-IL
C
Casey Mize
(SP) 15-day IL — Mize (adductor) threw a bullpen session Friday, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
W
Will Vest
(RP) 15-day IL — Vest (forearm) received a cortisone injection Friday, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
B
Beau Brieske
(RP) 60-day IL — Brieske (adductor) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A Lakeland on Tuesday, Jason Beck of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Trey Sweeney
(SS) 60-day IL — The Tigers transferred Sweeney (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Saturday.
60-Day-IL
T
Tarik Skubal
(SP) 15-day IL — Skubal could return in as little as 4-to-6 weeks following surgery Wednesday to remove a loose body from his left elbow, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
15-Day-IL
R
Reese Olson
(SP) 60-day IL — The Tigers placed Olson on the 60-day injured list Tuesday after he underwent a right shoulder labral repair Feb. 2 that will result in him missing the 2026 season.
60-Day-IL
T
Troy Melton
(RP) 60-day IL — Melton (elbow) yielded two runs (one earned) on two hits and no walks while striking out two batters over 1.2 innings in his rehab start Sunday with Single-A Lakeland.
60-Day-IL
P
Parker Meadows
(CF) 60-day IL — Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said that Meadows underwent surgery Tuesday to repair a left radius fracture and will be sidelined "multiple months," Jason Beck of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
F
Framber Valdez
(SP) Suspension — Valdez's six-game suspension was reduced to five games Wednesday, Jason Beck of MLB.com reports.
suspension
B
Bailey Horn
(RP) 60-day IL — The Tigers transferred Horn (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
D
Dugan Darnell
(RP) day-to-day — The Tigers announced Sunday that Darnell (hip) has been playing catch five times a week and is also taking part in a running progression, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Javier Baez
(SS) 10-day IL — The Tigers placed Baez on the 10-day injured list Wednesday with a right ankle sprain.
10-Day-IL

New York Mets

M
Mike Tauchman
(RF) out — Tauchman (knee) is still rehabbing at the Mets' spring training complex and has yet to resume baseball activities, Tim Britton of The Athletic reports.
Out
A
A.J. Minter
(RP) 15-day IL — Minter (hip/lat) completed a bullpen session Saturday, Laura Albanese of Newsday reports.
15-Day-IL
K
Kodai Senga
(SP) 15-day IL — Senga (back) completed a bullpen session Sunday, Laura Albanese of Newsday reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jorge Polanco
(1B) 10-day IL — Polanco's bruised right wrist has recovered nicely, but he's dealing with a flareup of the bursitis in his left Achilles, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports.
10-Day-IL
L
Luis Robert Jr.
(CF) 10-day IL — Robert (back) has yet to resume baseball activities since landing on the 10-day injured list in late April, Laura Albanese of Newsday reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Joe Jacques
(RP) day-to-day — The Mets signed Jacques to a minor-league contract Wednesday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Reed Garrett
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Garrett (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
G
Grae Kessinger
(3B) out — Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said Sunday that Kessinger sustained "a pretty significant injury" to his left hamstring and will need at least 8-12 weeks to recover, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports.
Out
K
Kevin Herget
(RP) day-to-day — Herget signed a minor league contract that includes an invitation to spring training with the Mets on Thursday, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
N
Nick Burdi
(RP) day-to-day — The Red Sox reinstated Burdi (hip) from the injured list Saturday and optioned him to Triple-A Worcester.
Day-To-Day
J
Jared Young
(1B) 10-day IL — The Mets placed Young on the 10-day injured list Wednesday, retroactive to Monday, due to a meniscus tear in his left knee.
10-Day-IL
D
Dedniel Nunez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Nunez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday.
60-Day-IL
J
Justin Hagenman
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture.
60-Day-IL
R
Ronny Mauricio
(SS) 10-day IL — The Mets placed Mauricio (thumb) on the 10-day injured list Sunday.
10-Day-IL
J
Jose Rojas
(3B) day-to-day — Triple-A Salt Lake placed Rojas on its COVID-19 injured list Sunday, Jeff Fletcher of The Orange County Register reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Tylor Megill
(SP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Megill (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Robert Stock
(RP) out — Stock (shoulder) said Sunday that he'll require surgery to address thoracic outlet syndrome and could be sidelined for the remainder of the season, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
Out
F
Francisco Lindor
(SS) 10-day IL — Lindor (calf) will wear a boot for the next week and remain shut down for at least three weeks, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
Game Preview
Detroit Tigers @ New York Mets
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (295)
Total Over 8.0
Key Injuries
Connor Seabold 15-Day-IL
Justin Verlander 60-Day-IL
Mike Tauchman Out
A.J. Minter 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

Get Daily Picks

AI picks delivered to your inbox every morning.

You're in!

Already subscribed!

Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Detroit Tigers @ New York Mets

+1.2 EV
per $100 wagered
New York Mets 60% Lean
"Mets -1.5 lean: 15% sharp edge + extreme whales ($744k) on home despite 0% model edge"
60% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 60%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +9.8%
Line Movement
Current Mets -1.5 -149 / Tigers +1.5 +124 (est), ML Mets -149 / Tigers +123, Total 8.0
Movement No significant movement detected
FULL ANALYSIS
Flat 59.8% Mets ML posterior finds no quant edge but extreme $744k whale volume (institutional) + 15% sharp spread home signal create contrarian lean vs Pinnacle fair value. Injuries net -5.1% away edge (poor quality) but no pitchers/weather caps conviction. Degraded data (no MC/Poisson) forces LEAN tier across board.
SHARP MONEY
Strong sharp edge 15% on home spread + extreme whale volume $744k institutional tier on home ML; overrides ML sharp away minor signal
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD New York Mets -1.5
+1.2 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE New York Mets None
60% 0.5u
TOTAL under 8.0
+0.5 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 60%
New York Mets -149
  • Extreme whale volume $744k (22 profitable wallets) on home despite 0% Bayesian edge
SPREAD PICK
○ 60%
New York Mets -1.5
  • Strong sharp divergence 15% favors home run line cover vs retail pricing
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 8.0
  • Pinnacle fair value under 51.9% with totals historically losing (reduce conf 5pts)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Tigers ML +11.2pp model edge vs Kalshi (55% posterior) + Mets injury hit (-16%) = +4.8 EV
Partner Spotlight

Want to reach bettors who use data?

partnerships@degendailynews.com

21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-522-4700

SIGNAL · LIVE