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MLB
Texas Rangers
Texas Rangers
Rangers
New York Yankees
Yankees
New York Yankees
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +44.3% EV
57% Lean
57% Lean
SPREAD
Texas Rangers Texas Rangers 1.5
"TEX +1.5 +EV 12.4 (fair 55% cover vs mkt 34%) + over 8.5 65% posterior (MC 20.3 total) vs low 8.5 line"
EV / $100
+12.4
Win Prob
65%
Edge
+14.9%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Texas Rangers None
55%
TOTAL over 8.5
62%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 16.2% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1013295 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: away Polymarket: 496 trades Kalshi: 133 trades Largest: $41400
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +193.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.0
Win Prob
44.0%
ML
127 / -127

Player Props Engine

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Texas Rangers

New York Yankees

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -212 / 172 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -201 / 179 -
Value Line - -210 / 165 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (200) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (102) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.5 (-118)
De-Vigged Fair Value 108 / -108 -191 / 191 O/U -110 / 110
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Texas Rangers

J
Josh Smith
(2B) 10-day IL — Smith is out of the lineup for Friday's game versus the Tigers.
10-Day-IL
B
Brandon Nimmo
(RF) day-to-day — Nimmo (hamstring) is out of the lineup for Tuesday's game against the Yankees.
Day-To-Day
W
Wyatt Langford
(LF) 10-day IL — Langford (forearm) rejoined the Rangers in Detroit on Saturday and will rest for a full week before being reevaluated by the team, Shawn McFarland of The Dallas Morning News reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Chris Martin
(RP) 15-day IL — Rangers manager Skip Schumaker said Friday that Martin (biceps) "took the next step" in his recovery and will throw a bullpen soon, Shawn McFarland of The Dallas Morning News reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Carter Baumler
(RP) 15-day IL — Baumler (intercostal) allowed one run on two hits over one inning in a rehab appearance at Triple-A Round Rock last Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
C
Cody Bradford
(SP) 60-day IL — Bradford (elbow) experienced a setback in his throwing program and will be shut down for at least a few days, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Robert Garcia
(RP) 15-day IL — The Rangers placed Garcia on the 15-day injured list Thursday with left shoulder inflammation.
15-Day-IL
L
Luis Curvelo
(RP) 15-day IL — The Rangers placed Curvelo on the 15-day injured list Wednesday with a right shoulder impingement, Kennedi Landry of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Cody Freeman
(3B) 10-day IL — Freeman (back) has resumed baseball activities, Shawn McFarland of the Dallas Morning News reports.
10-Day-IL
S
Sebastian Walcott
(SS) day-to-day — Rangers GM Ross Fenstermaker said Tuesday that Walcott could be ready for game action in August, "if all things according to plan" in his rehab from the internal brace procedure he underwent on his right elbow, Shawn McFarland of The Dallas Morning News reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jordan Montgomery
(SP) 60-day IL — Montgomery (elbow) will throw his fifth bullpen session Tuesday, Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News reports.
60-Day-IL
N
Nabil Crismatt
(SP) out — Crismatt will undergo surgery to repair a torn UCL in his right elbow, Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News reports.
Out
D
Declan Cronin
(RP) out — Cronin (elbow) signed a two-year, minor-league contract with the Rangers on Tuesday, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports.
Out

New York Yankees

G
Gerrit Cole
(SP) 15-day IL — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said that Cole (elbow), who is making a rehab start Tuesday with High-A Hudson Valley, is still a "little ways away" from making his season debut with the Yankees, Chris Kirschner of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
B
Ben Rice
(1B) day-to-day — Rice (hand) is out of the lineup for Tuesday's game against the Rangers.
Day-To-Day
C
Carlos Rodon
(SP) 15-day IL — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Friday that Rodon's (elbow) next rehab start Tuesday with Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre could be his last, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
15-Day-IL
G
Giancarlo Stanton
(DH) 10-day IL — Stanton (calf) has not been cleared to resume running, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
10-Day-IL
A
Angel Chivilli
(RP) 15-day IL — Manager Aaron Boone said Tuesday that Chivilli (shoulder) will be shut down from throwing for roughly three weeks, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
B
Ben Hess
(SP) day-to-day — Double-A Somerset placed Hess on its 7-day injured list April 18 due to an unspecified injury.
Day-To-Day
C
Clarke Schmidt
(SP) 60-day IL — Schmidt (elbow) threw a bullpen session Friday, Pete Caldera of The Bergen Record reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Travis MacGregor
(SP) day-to-day — MacGregor signed a minor-league contract with the Angels on Monday.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
Texas Rangers @ New York Yankees
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (200)
Total Over 8.5
Key Injuries
Josh Smith 10-Day-IL
Brandon Nimmo Day-To-Day
Gerrit Cole 15-Day-IL
Ben Rice Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Texas Rangers @ New York Yankees

+12.4 EV
per $100 wagered
Texas Rangers 57% Lean
"TEX +1.5 +EV 12.4 (fair 55% cover vs mkt 34%) + over 8.5 65% posterior (MC 20.3 total) vs low 8.5 line"
65% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 65%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +14.9%
Line Movement
Current NYY -1.5 -193 / TEX +1.5 +160
Movement No significant line movement detected
Slight negative EV on home ML due to juice exceeding calibrated; value elsewhere
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega even spread/ML clashes with -193 NYY juice (bayesian 64.9% home < implied); massive total edge as MC 20.3/MC over 22.5 69% under but posterior 65% over 8.5. Whales extreme on TEX ($1M vol 50% conf split but institutional), +EV spread away 45% vs fair 55% TEX cover. Injuries net even (Cole/Rodon out hurts NYY more), deGrom Schlittler duel projects regression to high scoring.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Texas Rangers 1.5
+12.4 EV 57% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Texas Rangers None
+1.2 EV 55% 0.5u
TOTAL over 8.5
+22.1 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Texas Rangers 159
  • Extreme whale volume on away ($1M+, institutional) + sharp ML away (1.4% edge) vs Bayesian 35.1% posterior
SPREAD PICK
○ 57%
Texas Rangers 1.5
  • +EV analysis shows 55.3% fair prob TEX covers vs market-implied 34.1%; omega even spread vs -1.5 juice
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 62%
OVER 8.5
  • Posterior 65.2% over 8.5 (15.2pp edge) with MC avg total 20.3, omega 22.5 vs market 8.5
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Yankees 60.5% model ML (-153) vs $663k extreme whales on Rangers -- minimal +0.1 EV home with contrarian risk
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