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MLB
Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies
Rockies
New York Mets
Mets
New York Mets
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +47.2% EV EARLY VALUE
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies 2.2
"Rockies +2.2: Omega pick'em vs -2.2 market, MC 71% cover (+14.5 EV), models fade juiced Mets"
EV / $100
+14.5
Win Prob
50%
Edge
-0.5%
Size
1.0u
MONEYLINE Colorado Rockies None
62%
TOTAL over 8.0
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 15.8% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1666402 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (90% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 227 trades Kalshi: 735 trades Largest: $489828
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +2.2
Total
24.0
Edge: +16.0
Win Prob
29.6%
ML
238 / -238

Player Props Engine

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Colorado Rockies

New York Mets

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -194 / 159 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -185 / 165 -
Value Line - -210 / 160 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (230) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (117) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.5 (-115)
De-Vigged Fair Value 124 / -124 -176 / 176 O/U -108 / 108
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Colorado Rockies

K
Kyle Freeland
(SP) 15-day IL — Freeland (shoulder) is scheduled to throw a bullpen session Saturday, Kevin Henry of The Denver Gazette reports.
15-Day-IL
W
Willi Castro
(LF) day-to-day — Castro (knee) is not in the lineup for Friday's game against the Mets.
Day-To-Day
R
Ryan Feltner
(SP) 15-day IL — The Rockies placed Feltner on the 15-day injured list Friday with right ulnar nerve inflammation.
15-Day-IL
J
Jimmy Herget
(RP) Paternity — The Rockies will deploy Herget as an opener Tuesday against the Padres, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
paternity
J
Jeff Criswell
(RP) 60-day IL — Criswell (elbow) will face live hitters over the weekend and begin a rehab assignment shortly thereafter, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
M
McCade Brown
(SP) 60-day IL — The Rockies placed Brown (shoulder) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
R
RJ Petit
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies transferred Petit (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Thursday, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Pierson Ohl
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies placed Ohl (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
C
Case Williams
(SP) day-to-day — Williams is currently slowed by a stress reaction in his right triceps, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
B
Brayan Castillo
(RP) day-to-day — The Rockies announced Monday that Castillo is dealing with right lat tightness and has been shut down from throwing while undergoing treatment for the injury, TheDNVR.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jared Thomas
(CF) day-to-day — The Rockies announced Monday that Thomas hasn't been participating in spring training while he recovers from offseason surgery to address a fractured hamate bone in his right wrist, TheDNVR.com reports.
Day-To-Day
K
Kris Bryant
(DH) 60-day IL — Bryant said Tuesday that the ongoing pain in his back continues to prevent him from participating in baseball activities, though he's still consulting with doctors and trainers for potential rehab options, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL

New York Mets

F
Francisco Lindor
(SS) 10-day IL — Lindor (calf) will wear a boot for the next week and remain shut down for at least three weeks, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jorge Polanco
(2B) 10-day IL — Manager Carlos Mendoza said Friday that the Mets are awaiting the results of an MRI on Polanco's right wrist as the veteran infielder remains sidelined due to a sore Achilles, Max Goodman of NJ.com reports.
10-Day-IL
K
Kevin Herget
(RP) day-to-day — Herget signed a minor league contract that includes an invitation to spring training with the Mets on Thursday, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jared Young
(LF) 10-day IL — The Mets placed Young on the 10-day injured list Wednesday, retroactive to Monday, due to a meniscus tear in his left knee.
10-Day-IL
J
Joey Gerber
(RP) 15-day IL — Gerber struck out five and gave up two hits and a walk over two scoreless innings of relief in Monday's loss to the Dodgers.
15-Day-IL
A
A.J. Minter
(RP) 15-day IL — Minter (lat) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A St. Lucie on Thursday, Michael Mayer of MetsmerizedOnline.com reports.
15-Day-IL
M
Mike Tauchman
(RF) out — Tauchman underwent surgery Thursday to repair the torn meniscus in his left knee, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
Out
N
Nate Lavender
(RP) day-to-day — Lavender (elbow) cleared outright waivers Wednesday and was returned to the Mets.
Day-To-Day
J
Justin Hagenman
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture.
60-Day-IL
R
Robert Stock
(RP) out — Stock experienced shoulder discomfort while playing with Team Israel in the World Baseball Classic and will undergo testing, Laura Albanese of Newsday reports.
Out
G
Grae Kessinger
(3B) out — Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said that Kessinger will get imaging done after suffering a left knee injury in Friday's Grapefruit League game against the Cardinals, SNY Mets reports.
Out
D
Dedniel Nunez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets transferred Nunez (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.
60-Day-IL
T
Tylor Megill
(SP) 60-day IL — The Mets and Megill (elbow) avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $2.5 million contract Thursday, Ari Alexander of 7 News Boston reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Reed Garrett
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Garrett (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Colorado Rockies @ New York Mets
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (230)
Total Over 7.5
Key Injuries
Kyle Freeland 15-Day-IL
Willi Castro Day-To-Day
Francisco Lindor 10-Day-IL
Jorge Polanco 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Colorado Rockies @ New York Mets

+14.5 EV
per $100 wagered
Colorado Rockies 65% Sharp Lean Calibrated
"Rockies +2.2: Omega pick'em vs -2.2 market, MC 71% cover (+14.5 EV), models fade juiced Mets"
50% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 50%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -0.5%
Line Movement
Current Mets -2.2 / Rockies +2.2 | O/U 8.0 | ML Mets -194 / Rockies +165
Movement No significant line movement detected
Net injury edge to Rockies (-2.3%) No starting pitchers (degraded data)
+31.2 EV on Rockies ML at +165 (model 49.5% win prob vs 37.7% breakeven); spread EV +14.5 at 60% cover prob
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega spread at 0 vs market Mets -2.2 creates 2.2 pt edge to Rockies +2.2, MC sims 49.5% Rockies win / 71% cover +2.2 (margin +0.4, std 4.8). Bayesian posterior 52.8% Mets win vs 66% implied but VERY_LOW model agreement and whale extreme Mets volume (-4 conf) cap upside. Injuries net -2.3% to Mets; no pitchers degrade total model (21 projected vs 8 market) to lean over only. CLV early +2 pts boosts but sharp split (ML away, spread home).
Recommended Sizing
1.0u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Colorado Rockies 2.2
+14.5 EV 65% 1.0u
MONEYLINE Colorado Rockies None
+31.2 EV 62% 0.5u
TOTAL over 8.0
+2.1 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 62%
Colorado Rockies 165
  • MC 49.5% Rockies win vs market implied 37.7% breakeven; exceeds by 11.8%
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
Colorado Rockies 2.2
  • Omega spread pick'em (0.0) vs market Mets -2.2; MC projects Rockies margin +0.4 (71% cover +2.2, std 4.8)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
OVER 8.0
  • MC projected 21.0 total (10.3-10.7); 22.7% over 24 but crushes market 8.0
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Rockies +2.2 & ML +185: omega 0.0 spread + MC 50.2% win = +2.2 pts / +43 EV vs -220 juice despite whales
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