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New England Patriots
New England Patriots
Patriots
Buffalo Bills
Bills
Buffalo Bills
Full Game Analysis
NFL
Ω OMEGA PICK +50.0% EV LATE TO MARKET
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Buffalo Bills Buffalo Bills -7.0
"OMEGA sees Buffalo -12.5 vs -7.0 and total 40.0 vs 50.5: Bills cover with +14.2 EV, under 50.5 is the numerical edge"
EV / $100
+14.2
Win Prob
58%
Edge
+7.3%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Buffalo Bills None
50%
TOTAL under 50.5
64%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 9.8% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$192111 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (91% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 40 trades Kalshi: 2 trades Largest: $32251
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
-12.5
Edge: -5.5
Total
40.0
Edge: -10.5
Win Prob
93.2%
ML
-1366 / 1366
⚠
Key Number Alert
KEY NUMBER: Spread at -7.0 — 9.2% of NFL games land on 7. Buying the half point is worth ~4.6% win probability. Pay up to -120 for the buy. OMEGA line (-12.5) disagrees by 5.5 pts — added value in the half-point buy.

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New England Patriots

Buffalo Bills

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -330 / 265 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -319 / 265 -
Sharp Action Best Line -14.5 (245) - -
Market Consensus -7.0 (101) ↓ - -
Value Line -7.0 (-104) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 50.5 (-105)
De-Vigged Fair Value 107 / -107 -297 / 297 O/U 102 / -102
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

New England Patriots

C
Channing Canada
(CB) out — Canada (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday's matchup against Buffalo.
Out
C
Christian Elliss
(LB) questionable — Elliss (chest) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Bills.
Questionable
C
Craig Woodson
(S) questionable — Woodson (shoulder) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against Buffalo, Phil Perry of NBC Sports Boston reports.
Questionable
D
Dre'Mont Jones
(DE) questionable — Jones (shoulder) is listed as questionable against the Bills on Sunday, Phil Perry of NBC Sports Boston reports.
Questionable
R
Reggie Gilliam
(FB) questionable — Gilliam (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against Buffalo, Phil Perry of NBC Sports Boston reports.
Questionable
E
Eli Raridon
(TE) questionable — Raridon (thigh) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Bills, Phil Perry of NBC Sports Boston reports.
Questionable
C
Christian Barmore
(DT) out — Barmore (shoulder) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Bills, Mike Reiss of ESPN.com reports.
Out
C
Christian Gonzalez
(CB) out — Gonzalez (shoulder) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Bills, Mike Reiss of ESPN.com reports.
Out
D
Drake Maye
(QB) active — Maye (shoulder) was a full participant in Friday's practice and does not have an injury designation for Sunday's game against Buffalo.
Active
M
Morgan Moses
(OT) questionable — questionable
Questionable
D
DeMario Douglas
(WR) active — Douglas caught one of his five targets for 38 yards in the Patriots' 35-6 loss to the Jaguars on Sunday.
Active
G
Greg Van Roten
(G) Injured Reserve — The Patriots placed Van Roten (thigh) on injured reserve Tuesday.
Injured Reserve
R
Romeo Doubs
(WR) active — Doubs hauled in three of four targets for 49 yards during the Patriots' 35-6 loss to the Jaguars on Sunday.
Active
H
Hunter Henry
(TE) active — Henry caught one pass (on two targets) for five yards during the Patriots' 35-6 loss to the Jaguars on Sunday.
Active
A
Andy Borregales
(PK) active — Borregales converted two of three field-goal attempts in Sunday's 35-6 loss to the Jaguars.
Active
B
Behren Morton
(QB) active
Active
D
Dametrious Crownover
(OT) active
Active
L
Leonard Taylor III
(DT) active
Active
A
A.J. Brown
(WR) Injured Reserve — Brown was spotted Monday in the Patriots' locker room walking without a limp and wearing a small wrap on his injured right ankle, Taylor Kyles of CLNSMedia.com reports.
Injured Reserve
M
Mack Hollins
(WR) active — Hollins caught six of nine targets for 87 yards during Sunday's 35-6 loss to the Jaguars.
Active
R
Rhamondre Stevenson
(RB) active — Stevenson rushed seven times for 22 yards and brought in all three targets for 16 yards in the Patriots' 35-6 loss to the Jaguars on Sunday.
Active
T
TreVeyon Henderson
(RB) active — Henderson rushed eight times for 23 yards and brought in his only target for six yards in the Patriots' 35-6 loss to the Jaguars on Sunday.
Active
J
Jaylen Reed
(S) active — Reed is expected to start alongside Kevin Byard at safety against the Jaguars on Sunday, Evan Lazar of the Patriots' official site reports.
Active
Q
Quintayvious Hutchins
(LB) Injured Reserve — Hutchins (knee) was placed on injured reserve Friday.
Injured Reserve
D
Dell Pettus
(S) Injured Reserve — The Patriots placed Pettus (ankle) on injured reserve Wednesday.
Injured Reserve

Buffalo Bills

S
Sam Franklin Jr.
(S) active
Active
J
Joe Andreessen
(LB) active — Andreessen and the Bills agreed to terms Saturday on a two-year contract extension, Tom Pelissero of Netflix reports.
Active
K
Keon Coleman
(WR) active — Coleman (ankle) doesn't have an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Patriots.
Active
D
Damar Hamlin
(S) active
Active
R
Ray Davis
(RB) questionable — Davis (hamstring) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Patriots.
Questionable
D
DJ Moore
(WR) active — Moore (shoulder) is practicing in a non-contact jersey Friday, Sal Capaccio of WGR Sports Radio 550 Buffalo reports.
Active
C
Christian Benford
(CB) questionable — Benford (toe) did not participate in practice Wednesday or Thursday.
Questionable
T
T.J. Sanders
(DT) doubtful — Sanders (appendix) was a limited practice participant Thursday.
Doubtful
D
Deone Walker
(DT) active
Active
C
C.J. Gardner-Johnson
(S) active — Gardner-Johnson logged five tackles (three solo) and two passes defensed, including one interception, in the Bills' 24-16 win over the Chargers on Sunday.
Active
G
Greg Rousseau
(LB) active — Rousseau logged eight tackles (five solo), including 2.0 sacks, in the Bills' 24-16 win over the Chargers on Sunday.
Active
A
Ar'maj Reed-Adams
(G) active — Reed-Adams (elbow) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice.
Active
J
Josh Allen
(QB) active — Allen (knee) was spotted participating in practice Wednesday, Sal Capaccio of WGR Sports Radio 550 Buffalo reports.
Active
D
Dawson Knox
(TE) active — Knox hauled in his lone target for five yards in a 24-16 win over the Chargers on Sunday.
Active
K
Khalil Shakir
(WR) active — Shakir caught one of his three targets for six yards in the Bills' 24-16 win over the Chargers on Sunday.
Active
T
Tyler Bass
(PK) active — Bass made his lone field-goal attempt and all three of his extra-point tries during Sunday's 24-16 win over the Chargers.
Active
M
Mike Danna
(DE) active
Active
S
Skyler Bell
(WR) active
Active
J
Jude Bowry
(OT) active
Active
J
Jalon Kilgore
(S) active
Active
D
Dalton Kincaid
(TE) active — Kincaid secured two of three targets for 38 yards and lost a fumble in the Bills' 24-16 win over the Chargers on Sunday.
Active
J
James Cook III
(RB) active — Cook rushed 24 times for 154 yards and a touchdown and failed to bring in his only target in the Bills' 24-16 win over the Chargers on Sunday. He also lost a fumble.
Active
D
Dorian Williams
(LB) active
Active
E
Ed Oliver
(DT) active — Oliver (hip) is available for Sunday's game versus the Chargers.
Active
J
Jordan Hancock
(CB) Injured Reserve — The Bills placed Hancock (hamstring) on injured reserve Friday.
Injured Reserve
Game Preview
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
until kickoff
Current Line
Spread -14.5 (245)
Total Over 50.5
Key Injuries
Channing Canada Out
Christian Elliss Questionable
Sam Franklin Jr. Active
Joe Andreessen Active
Analysis starts at kickoff

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills

+14.21 EV
per $100 wagered
Buffalo Bills 65% Sharp Lean
"OMEGA sees Buffalo -12.5 vs -7.0 and total 40.0 vs 50.5: Bills cover with +14.2 EV, under 50.5 is the numerical edge"
58% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 58%
Book Implied 51%
Edge +7.3%
Line Movement
Current Buffalo Bills -7.0 / Total 50.5
58.5% win rate at -105 yields +14.21 per $100, positive EV on Buffalo spread
FULL ANALYSIS
Buffalo 3-0 hosts 1-2 New England as 7-point home favorite with OMEGA projecting 26.2-13.9, a 12.3-point margin 5.5 pts beyond the market. Total is the bigger gap: OMEGA 40.0 and decomposed 41.0 vs 50.5 market, a 10.5-pt under lean. Bills -305 ML is unplayable juice at 75.3% breakeven, so the spread and under are the only concise reads.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Buffalo Bills -7.0
+14.2 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE Buffalo Bills None
-1.5 EV 50%
TOTAL under 50.5
+8.4 EV 64% 1u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 50%
Buffalo Bills -305
  • 93.2% model win prob does not clear -305 breakeven 75.3% by required margin under -250 filter rule
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
Buffalo Bills -7.0
  • OMEGA projects 26.2-13.9 (spread -12.5), 5.5 pts beyond market -7.0 with 3-0 Buffalo vs 1-2 New England
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 64%
UNDER 50.5
  • OMEGA total and decomposed 41.0 both ~10 pts under market 50.5 with expected score 40.1 points
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
OMEGA line says Bills by 12.5, market says 7 — massive discrepancy but unvalidated sport means no bet.
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