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Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks
Hawks
Indiana Pacers
Pacers
Indiana Pacers
Full Game Analysis
NBA
Ω DDN SI PICK
62% Lean
62% Lean
MONEYLINE
Atlanta Hawks Atlanta Hawks None
"Pacers missing 5 rotation arms (Toppin/McConnell/Zubac out) vs near-full Hawks core — model flips this to Hawks -1.5 with Siakam 21.5 pts and Okongwu 9.5 rebs as the injury-cascade props."
EV / $100
+8.0
Win Prob
54%
Edge
+4.0%
SPREAD Atlanta Hawks 1.5
59%
TOTAL under 226.5
57%
Full DDN SI Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 1.3% divergence on ML with moderate signal.
Sharp: away
Whale Activity Detected
$836885 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong away consensus (75% of whale volume).
Whales: away Polymarket: 188 trades Largest: $119476

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Atlanta Hawks

Indiana Pacers

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 170 / -200 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 174 / -200 -
Value Line - 160 / -195 -
Sharp Action Best Line 5.0 (-110) - -
Market Consensus 5.0 (-106) ↓ - -
Value Line 4.5 (-106) ↓ - -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 232.0 (-110)
Market Consensus - - Over 232.0 (-107)
Value Line - - Over 233.5 (-106)
De-Vigged Fair Value -100 / -100 188 / -188 O/U -100 / -100
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Atlanta Hawks

K
Kingston Flemings
(G) Suspension — Flemings (suspension) won't play in Monday's game against Indiana, Andrew Schlecht of The Athletic reports.
Suspension
J
Jalen Johnson
(F) day-to-day — Johnson (ankle) is questionable to play Monday against the Pacers.
Day-To-Day
J
Jock Landale
(C) out — Landale (hip) has been ruled out for Monday's game against Indiana.
Out
M
Mouhamed Gueye
(F) out — Gueye underwent surgery Tuesday to repair a fractured left foot that he suffered during a workout last week, Brad Rowland of the Locked On Podcast Network reports.
Out
H
Henri Veesaar
(C) out — Veesaar was diagnosed with a torn right ACL and is expected to miss the 2026-27 season, the Hawks announced Monday.
Out

Indiana Pacers

O
Obi Toppin
(F) day-to-day — Toppin (back) is out for Sunday's game against the Nets, Alex Golden of SI.com reports.
Day-To-Day
T
T.J. McConnell
(G) out — Indiana recalled McConnell (hamstring) from the G League's Noblesville Boom on Saturday.
Out
I
Ivica Zubac
(C) out — Zubac (ankle) will remain on the inactive list for Sunday's game against the Nets.
Out
J
Johnny Furphy
(G) out — Furphy (knee) is practicing with the G League's Noblesville Boom, per Alex Golden of SI.com.
Out
B
Ben Sheppard
(G) out — Head coach Rick Carlise confirmed Sheppard will miss "months" after undergoing surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee, Tony East of Forbes.com reports.
Out
T
Tyrese Haliburton
(G) out — Haliburton (hamstring) will miss at least the next two weeks of action, Shams Charania of ESPN reports.
Out
Game Preview
Atlanta Hawks @ Indiana Pacers
until tip-off
Current Line
Spread 5.0 (-110)
Total Over 232.0
Key Injuries
Kingston Flemings Suspension
Jalen Johnson Day-To-Day
Obi Toppin Day-To-Day
T.J. McConnell Out
Analysis starts at tip-off

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Recorded picks and reasons

These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.

Moneyline: Atlanta Hawks (-110) PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-01T20:41:31.858122 UTC

Pacers' second unit is gutted (Toppin, McConnell, Sheppard out) and their center rotation (Zubac out) leaves Siakam/Nance undersized vs Okongwu, tilting the model to Atlanta ~54% on a pick-em game.

Player Prop: over (-110) PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-01T00:32:13.316146 UTC

Model projection: primary creator with McConnell (backup PG) out — ball-dominance only rises. No market comparison.

Ω
DDN SI ANALYSIS

Atlanta Hawks @ Indiana Pacers

+8.0 EV
per $100 wagered
Atlanta Hawks 62% Lean
"Pacers missing 5 rotation arms (Toppin/McConnell/Zubac out) vs near-full Hawks core — model flips this to Hawks -1.5 with Siakam 21.5 pts and Okongwu 9.5 rebs as the injury-cascade props."
54% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 54%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +4.0%
Line Movement
Open N/A (no book odds) — omega_model spread: Pacers +1.5, total 226.5
Current N/A — source all null; OMEGA line only
Movement Unknown — no market quotes available
Pacers 5 rotation players OUT (Toppin, McConnell, Zubac, Furphy, Sheppard) Hawks Jalen Johnson day-to-day Both teams' center rotations depleted
Model gives Hawks ~54% ML probability on a near pick-em line. With no book price available, EV is computed against the model-derived fair price (+100恩 -105 equivalent); it is an estimate, not a market-verified edge, and carries low confidence without a real quote.
FULL ANALYSIS
No market exists on this game, so OMEGA derived its own line: Hawks -1.5 / 226.5 total (Poisson 70% + ELO 30%). The whole read is the Pacers injury cascade — Toppin, McConnell, Zubac, Furphy and Sheppard all out leaves Siakam and Nembhard carrying massive usage against an Atlanta team whose core (McCollum, Daniels, Okongwu) is mostly intact despite Landale/Gueye/Veesaar sitting. Model only reaches ~54% on the ML, so this lands as a sub-100 implied-value lean: Siakam 21.5 points over and Okongwu 9.5 boards over are the spots with real cascade-driven usage lifts. Sample-size caveat: no stat feed, no closing line — treat as directional, not a bet.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Atlanta Hawks None
+8.0 EV 62%
SPREAD Atlanta Hawks 1.5
+3.0 EV 59%
TOTAL under 226.5
+2.5 EV 57%
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 62%
Atlanta Hawks None
  • Pacers' second unit is gutted (Toppin, McConnell, Sheppard out) and their center rotation (Zubac out) leaves Siakam/Nance undersized vs Okongwu, tilting the model to Atlanta ~54% on a pick-em game
SPREAD PICK
○ 59%
Atlanta Hawks 1.5
  • OMEGA scoring model+team strength spread lands Hawks -1.5 on the road after netting out the Pacers' home court (~1.5 pts) against Indiana's five-man injury cascade on the bench and at center
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 57%
UNDER 226.5
  • OMEGA scoring model projection lands at 225-227 combined; depleted second units on both sides reduce bench scoring depth, and totals model WR (48.7% historic) forces a reduced-confidence UNDER lean only
About This Analysis

DDN SI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Model lean Pacers -2.5 / over 231.5 — each team's frontcourt gutted by injuries, but with no market price there's no provable edge, 0.5u display only.
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