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New York Yankees
New York Yankees
Yankees
Boston Red Sox
Sox
Boston Red Sox
Full Game Analysis
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OMEGA ANALYZING

Full analysis generates as game time approaches.

Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 14.0% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1012642 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (91% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 214 trades Kalshi: 47 trades Largest: $50496

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New York Yankees

Boston Red Sox

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -128 / 107 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -121 / 112 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (350) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (176) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.5 (-100)
De-Vigged Fair Value 188 / -188 -117 / 117 O/U 106 / -106
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

New York Yankees

G
Gerrit Cole
(SP) 15-day IL — Cole (elbow) will make his next rehab start Thursday with High-A Hudson Valley, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Carlos Rodon
(SP) 15-day IL — Rodon (elbow/hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with High-A Hudson Valley on Friday, Greg Joyce of the New York Post reports.
15-Day-IL
A
Anthony Volpe
(SS) 10-day IL — The Yankees transferred Volpe's (shoulder) rehab assignment from Double-A Somerset to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre on Tuesday.
10-Day-IL
C
Clarke Schmidt
(SP) 60-day IL — Schmidt (elbow) threw a bullpen session Friday, Pete Caldera of The Bergen Record reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Rafael Montero
(RP) out — Montero continues to have visa issues and hasn't yet arrived at Yankees camp, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
Out
T
Travis MacGregor
(SP) day-to-day — MacGregor signed a minor-league contract with the Angels on Monday.
Day-To-Day

Boston Red Sox

K
Kutter Crawford
(SP) 15-day IL — Crawford has been diagnosed with inflammation in his right elbow following an MRI, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
15-Day-IL
S
Sonny Gray
(SP) 15-day IL — The Red Sox placed Gray on the 15-day injured list Tuesday with a right hamstring strain.
15-Day-IL
P
Patrick Sandoval
(SP) 15-day IL — Red Sox manager Alex Cora said Monday that Sandoval isn't expected to require further imaging on his left biceps and will likely resume throwing after a few days of rest, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Justin Slaten
(RP) 15-day IL — Red Sox manager Alex Cora told reporters that Slaten (oblique) played catch Friday and Saturday, Gabrielle Starr of the Boston Herald reports.
15-Day-IL
T
Triston Casas
(1B) 10-day IL — Casas (knee) was diagnosed with an abdominal strain Tuesday, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Johan Oviedo
(SP) 60-day IL — The Red Sox transferred Oviedo (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brendan Rodgers
(2B) out — Rodgers (shoulder) re-signed Friday with the Red Sox on a two-year, minor-league contract, Chris Hatfield of SoxProspects.com reports.
Out
H
Hobie Harris
(RP) day-to-day — Red Sox manager Alex Cora said Monday that Harris has been shut down due to forearm tightness, Mac Cerullo of the Boston Herald reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Romy Gonzalez
(1B) 60-day IL — Gonzalez will have his left shoulder injury evaluated Tuesday to determine whether he needs to undergo surgery, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Tanner Houck
(SP) 60-day IL — Houck (elbow) began a throwing program Monday with 25 throws from 45 feet, Ian Browne of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (350)
Total Over 8.5
Key Injuries
Gerrit Cole 15-Day-IL
Carlos Rodon 15-Day-IL
Kutter Crawford 15-Day-IL
Sonny Gray 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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OMEGA ANALYSIS

Crunching the numbers

Full EV analysis, situational factors, and model predictions generate as game time approaches.

Game Analysis

The New York Yankees hold a slight edge over the Boston Red Sox based on superior ELO rating (1555 vs 1513) and better record (10-8 vs 8-9), despite the heated rivalry and mutual injuries. ELO projects a 56% Yankees win probability with a -1.7 implied spread. Data gaps exist in records, stats, and odds, leading to conservative confidence levels.
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
New York Yankees -125
  • Yankees' ELO advantage (+42 points) and better record (10-8 vs 8-9) imply 56% win probability vs market fair value around -125
  • Injuries are balanced, but Yankees' peak ELO (1625) and last game delta (+33.6) signal momentum
  • MLB ML overconfidence adjustment applied (-8% from base 66%)
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
New York Yankees -1.5
  • ELO-implied spread of -1.7 supports Yankees -1.5, capturing their rating edge in a low-scoring rivalry projection
  • No line movement or sharp data, but qualitative H2H rivalry suggests close games—still directional value
  • Reduced 3pts for spread difficulty + MLB calibration (-8%)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 61%
UNDER 8.5
  • Without Poisson, default to under in SP-heavy injuries and average ELO tiers, projecting sub-8.5 runs in Fenway rivalry (indoor)
  • Both teams' recent deltas positive but records middling, implying pitching edges
  • Totals are strength (57% WR), slight boost applied
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

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