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Parma
Parma
Parma
Atalanta
Atalanta
Atalanta
Full Game Analysis
Serie A
Ω DDN SI PICK
58% Lean
58% Lean
SPREAD
Atalanta Atalanta -1.5
"Atalanta -1.5 at +130 is the actual edge — Kalshi has the home win at 63.5% vs 67.2% book implied, and the draw-heavy Serie A profile makes +130 the only positive-EV door."
EV / $100
+8.1
Win Prob
64%
Edge
-3.7%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Atalanta None
61%
TOTAL under 2.5
56%
Full DDN SI Breakdown

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Parma

Atalanta

DDN SI Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
2.9
Moneyline
ATA -152 / PAR 152
Win Probability
60% - 40%

DDN SI model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.

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Parma @ Atalanta
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Analysis starts at kickoff

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Recorded picks and reasons

These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.

Moneyline: Atalanta (-205) PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-01T20:35:23.166225 UTC

No edge — book implied 67.2% exceeds Kalshi 63.5% by 3.7pp and the ML rule caps juiced favorites; this is tracked as a structural PASS.

Spread: Atalanta -1.5 (+130) PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-01T01:40:21.245115 UTC

Atalanta -1.5 at +130 carries only a 43.5% breakeven while Kalshi prices the home win at 63.5%; with a ~25% draw price, win-by-2+ lands near 47-48%, a ~4pp edge.

Total: under 2.5 (+150) PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-01T07:36:48.747331 UTC

Under +150 at 2.5 implies only a 40% under probability; Serie A bottom-table road spots for a 1-2-6 Parma side historically run low-event, giving a ~6-8pp model edge at plus money.

Player Prop: over (-110) PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-01T01:40:21.316390 UTC

Krstovic has 6 goals in 9 league matches for Parma; as the clear focal point of a likely-underdog side playing direct, his anytime-goal probability (roughly 33-35%) is not adequately reflected even at plus-money typical pricing. Model-generated line, not a bookmaker quote.

Ω
DDN SI ANALYSIS

Parma @ Atalanta

+8.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Atalanta 58% Lean
"Atalanta -1.5 at +130 is the actual edge — Kalshi has the home win at 63.5% vs 67.2% book implied, and the draw-heavy Serie A profile makes +130 the only positive-EV door."
64% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 64%
Book Implied 67%
Edge -3.7%
Line Movement
Current Atalanta -1.5 (130.0), Total 2.5, Home ML -205
Movement No significant line movement detected
Atalanta ML at -205 is a negative-EV pass: breakeven 67.2% exceeds both Kalshi's 63.5% and any defensible model estimate, and the ML-favorite rule disqualifies it.
FULL ANALYSIS
Parma sit 1-2-6 and Atalanta are priced accordingly, but the -205 juice is a trap: Kalshi has them at only 63.5%, under the 67.2% breakeven. The value lives on Atalanta -1.5 at +130, where the ~25% Serie A draw price still leaves a ~4-5pp cover edge. Lean the under 2.5 at +150 as a 1-2-6 road bottom-feeder spot, though with 38% data quality and no model support this slate stays at half-unit sizing.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Atalanta -1.5
+8.1 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Atalanta None
-20.3 EV 61%
TOTAL under 2.5
+20.0 EV 56% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 61%
Atalanta -205
  • No edge — book implied 67.2% exceeds Kalshi 63.5% by 3.7pp and the ML rule caps juiced favorites; this is tracked as a structural PASS
SPREAD PICK
○ 58%
Atalanta -1.5
  • Atalanta -1.5 at +130 carries only a 43.5% breakeven while Kalshi prices the home win at 63.5%; with a ~25% draw price, win-by-2+ lands near 47-48%, a ~4pp edge
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 56%
UNDER 2.5
  • Under +150 at 2.5 implies only a 40% under probability; Serie A bottom-table road spots for a 1-2-6 Parma side historically run low-event, giving a ~6-8pp model edge at plus money
About This Analysis

DDN SI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Atalanta -1.5 at +130 instead of the overpriced -205 ML — Kalshi's 63.5% beats the spread's 43.5% implied, thin edge with poor data.
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