La Liga
Athletic Club
Club
0
-
2
Final
Getafe
Getafe
Player Props Results
Final Box ScoreAthletic Club
Getafe
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
Athletic Club @ Getafe
+2.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Athletic Club
59%
Lean
"Athletic Club ML +150 (64% model vs 60% implied, +4.8 EV) exploits Getafe home pricing inefficiency"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
64%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+14.0%
Line Movement
Open
No open line data
Current
ATH -0.5 (Home +140 / Away -195), ML Getafe +235 / Athletic Club +150, Total 1.5
Movement
No movement data
+4.8 EV on Athletic Club ML at +150; exceeds 5% buffer over 60% breakeven
FULL ANALYSIS
Athletic Club +150 ML undervalued at 64% model prob vs 60% implied; Getafe home ML +235 too juiced despite record parity as Athletic's attack (Guruzeta 6G, Williams assists) exploits Getafe's mid-table defense. Low 1.5 total fits LaLiga norm (2.4 gpg) with both sides low-scoring leaders. Spread -0.5 lacks value at -195 pricing.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
●
66%
Athletic Club 170
- Breakeven 37% vs our 58% prob; Athletic Club 62% win rate as road fave in LaLiga (N=21)
SPREAD PICK
●
64%
Athletic Club -0.5
- Athletic Club's superior xG differential (1.42 vs Getafe 0.92 season avg) projects 1.6-1.0 scoreline
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
58%
UNDER 1.5
- Getafe matches avg 1.9 total goals; combined xG 2.34 but 68% under 2.5 (N=29)
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
ATH +170 ML (58% prob vs 37% breakeven) on xG edge + Getafe home unders 68% (N=29)
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