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Athletics
Athletics
Athletics
Atlanta Braves
Braves
Atlanta Braves
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
68% Strong
68% Strong
MONEYLINE
Athletics Athletics
"Omega 12-12 vs market 8.0 total (+16pt edge) and Athletics ML +15.6 EV after 5-1 model H2H dominance"
EV / $100
+15.6
Win Prob
33%
Edge
-16.8%
Size
1u
SPREAD Athletics +219
65%
TOTAL Atlanta Braves/ Athletics Under 8.0 8.0
72%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +219.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +16.0
Win Prob
33.2%
ML
201 / -201

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Athletics

Atlanta Braves

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Pinnacle - -210 / 186 ↑ -
Pinnacle -1.5 (102) - -
Pinnacle - - Over 8.0 (-101)
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Athletics

G
Gunnar Hoglund
(SP) 15-day IL — The Athletics announced Thursday that Hoglund has been diagnosed with a lumbar spine strain.
15-Day-IL
B
Ben Bowden
(RP) day-to-day — The Athletics reassigned Bowden (lat) to minor-league camp Monday.
Day-To-Day

Atlanta Braves

S
Sean Murphy
(C) 10-day IL — Murphy (hip) could begin a rehab assignment with High-A Rome later this week, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.
10-Day-IL
S
Spencer Strider
(SP) 15-day IL — Strider (oblique) will travel with Atlanta on its road trip, but he remains without a timetable to begin a rehab assignment, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
H
Ha-Seong Kim
(SS) 10-day IL — Atlanta placed Kim (finger) on its 10-day injured list Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
D
Daysbel Hernandez
(RP) 15-day IL — Hernandez (shoulder) threw a live batting practice session Monday but has yet to make his Grapefruit League debut, Chad Bishop of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
15-Day-IL
D
Danny Young
(RP) 15-day IL — Atlanta placed Young (elbow) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
H
Hurston Waldrep
(SP) 15-day IL — Waldrep will undergo surgery Monday to remove loose bodies from his right elbow, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
A
AJ Smith-Shawver
(SP) 15-day IL — Atlanta announced Monday that Smith-Shawver (elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery and will miss the remainder of the 2025 season.
15-Day-IL
J
Joey Wentz
(RP) 60-day IL — Atlanta placed Wentz on the 60-day injured list Tuesday with a right ACL tear.
60-Day-IL
J
Jurickson Profar
(LF) Suspension — Profar will miss the full 2026 season after the appeal of his 162-game PED suspension was denied Thursday, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.
Suspension
S
Spencer Schwellenbach
(SP) 60-day IL — Atlanta announced that Schwellenbach underwent a procedure Wednesday to remove bone spurs from his right elbow, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Joe Jimenez
(RP) 60-day IL — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss acknowledged Wednesday that he's uncertain if Jimenez (knee) will be available to pitch at any point in 2026, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Athletics @ Atlanta Braves
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -1.5 (102)
Total Over 8.0
Key Injuries
Gunnar Hoglund 15-Day-IL
Ben Bowden Day-To-Day
Sean Murphy 10-Day-IL
Spencer Strider 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Athletics @ Atlanta Braves

+15.6 EV
per $100 wagered
Athletics 68% Strong
"Omega 12-12 vs market 8.0 total (+16pt edge) and Athletics ML +15.6 EV after 5-1 model H2H dominance"
33% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 33%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -16.8%
Line Movement
Current ATL -219 / Total 8.0
Movement No movement data
Massive edge on Athletics ML vs overpriced favorite line; total under 8 has +EV vs omega 24.0 projection
Model: 53.3% win rate | n=75 — Based on N=75 MLB graded outcomes; strong vs Athletics (5-1)
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega poisson projects 12-12 explosion vs market's 8.0 total and -219 ATL spread—clear misprice with Braves missing Strider/Murphy/Hernandez. H2H model crushed yesterday's Athletics ML/spread (+2.26u) and goes 5-1 lifetime on OAK. Sale dominates Ks but total edge too big to ignore.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Athletics
+15.6 EV 68% 1u
SPREAD Athletics +219
+12.1 EV 65% 1u
TOTAL Atlanta Braves/ Athletics Under 8.0 8.0
+18.2 EV 72% 1.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 68%
Athletics +169
  • Omega Poisson+ELO projects 36.6% Athletics win prob vs market-implied 37% at +169, but expected scores 12-12 show even matchup
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
Athletics +207
  • Omega spread 0.0 vs market ATL -207 = 207pt edge; model sees dead even game
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 72%
ATLANTA BRAVES/ ATHLETICS OVER 8.5 8.5
  • Omega total 24.0 vs market 8.5 = 15.5pt edge; Poisson projects 12-12=24 runs
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Omega 12-12 proj (+15.5 total edge) crushes 8.5 line; Athletics +169 ML has 14.2 EV vs -207 overprice
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