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MLB
Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians
Guardians
Chicago White Sox
Sox
Chicago White Sox
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +50.0% EV LATE TO MARKET
56% Lean
56% Lean
SPREAD
Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 2.2
"Over 7.5 at -110 has +26.9% EV from fusion model; Guardians +2.2 a modest lean with contradictory sharp-whale signals."
EV / $100
+8.2
Win Prob
50%
Edge
+1.5%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Chicago White Sox None
50%
TOTAL over 7.5
65%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 19.0% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$864863 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (85% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 338 trades Kalshi: 39 trades Largest: $46576
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: -2.2
Total
22.5
Edge: +15.0
Win Prob
37.3%
ML
168 / -168

Player Props Engine

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Cleveland Guardians

Chicago White Sox

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -105 / -115 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -100 / -110 -
Value Line - -104 / -120 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-500) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-180) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.0 (-116)
De-Vigged Fair Value -169 / 169 105 / -105 O/U -108 / 108
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Cleveland Guardians

C
Chase DeLauter
(RF) 10-day IL — Guardians manager Stephen Vogt said Monday that the team hopes DeLauter (rib) will be ready to return during its June 26-July 5 homestand, Tim Stebbins of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
T
Tanner Burns
(SP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
J
Jose Ramirez
(3B) 10-day IL — Ramirez underwent surgery to address the hamate bone fracture in his left hand Tuesday and is expected to be sidelined 5-to-7 weeks, Zack Meisel of The Athletic reports.
10-Day-IL
A
Angel Martinez
(LF) 10-day IL — Martinez (foot) will be placed on the 10-day injured list Tuesday, reports Cade Cracas of Sports Illustrated.
10-Day-IL
C
Carlos Hernandez
(RP) day-to-day — Hernandez (shoulder) began his rehab assignment with Triple-A Omaha on Friday.
Day-To-Day

Chicago White Sox

N
Noah Schultz
(SP) 15-day IL — Schultz (knee) struck out four over 2.2 scoreless innings in a rehab start Sunday with Triple-A Charlotte. He scattered two hits and one walk and also hit two batters.
15-Day-IL
M
Munetaka Murakami
(1B) 10-day IL — White Sox manager Will Venable said Sunday that Murakami (hamstring) is increasing the intensity of his hitting and running at about 80 percent intensity, Scott Merkin of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
E
Everson Pereira
(RF) 7-day IL — The White Sox activated Pereira (pectoral) from the 10-day injured list Thursday.
7-day il
H
Hagen Smith
(SP) day-to-day — Smith will be shut down for two weeks after being diagnosed with a left shoulder impingement, James Fegan of SoxMachine.com reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Tim Elko
(1B) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
T
Tyler Gilbert
(RP) 15-day IL — The White Sox placed Gilbert on the 15-day injured list Wednesday with a left shoulder impingement.
15-Day-IL
A
Austin Hays
(LF) 60-day IL — Hays has been pulled off his rehab assignment at Triple-A Charlotte due to a recurrence of left calf soreness, Scott Merkin of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jordan Leasure
(RP) 60-day IL — Leasure (forearm) said Friday that he will be shut down from throwing for four weeks, James Fegan of SoxMachine.com reports.
60-Day-IL
K
Ky Bush
(SP) 60-day IL — Bush (elbow) had a setback in his recovery from Tommy John surgery and is unlikely to return until the second half of the season, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
D
Drew Thorpe
(SP) 60-day IL — Thorpe (elbow) recently underwent an appendectomy but has resumed throwing, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Prelander Berroa
(RP) 60-day IL — Berroa is dealing with right elbow inflammation and will have his rehab stint paused, James Fegan of SoxMachine.com reports.
60-Day-IL
M
Mike Vasil
(RP) 60-day IL — The White Sox transferred Vasil (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
T
Tanner Murray
(LF) 60-day IL — The White Sox transferred Murray (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
M
Mason Adams
(RP) day-to-day — The White Sox announced that Adams underwent successful Tommy John surgery Wednesday, Scott Merkin of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
B
Brooks Baldwin
(LF) 60-day IL — The White Sox transferred Baldwin (elbow) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-500)
Total Over 7.0
Key Injuries
Chase DeLauter 10-Day-IL
Tanner Burns Day-To-Day
Noah Schultz 15-Day-IL
Munetaka Murakami 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox

+8.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Cleveland Guardians 56% Lean
"Over 7.5 at -110 has +26.9% EV from fusion model; Guardians +2.2 a modest lean with contradictory sharp-whale signals."
50% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 50%
Book Implied 48%
Edge +1.5%
Line Movement
Current Spread: 2.2, Total: 7.5, Moneyline: Home -106 / Away -112
Movement No significant movement detected
Negative EV on moneyline; no edge.
FULL ANALYSIS
Degraded data quality (63%) forces caution. Sharp money diverges from whale action, creating uncertainty on spread. The over total stands out with strong Bayesian posterior (65.2%) and positive EV, despite questionable Monte Carlo projection. Moneyline offers no edge.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge 18.5% on spread away with strong signal; prediction markets also lean away.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Cleveland Guardians 2.2
+8.2 EV 56% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Chicago White Sox None
-6.0 EV 50%
TOTAL over 7.5
+26.9 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 50%
Chicago White Sox -112
  • No edge; our probability 50% vs book implied 52.9%
SPREAD PICK
○ 56%
Cleveland Guardians 2.2
  • Posterior shows Home cover at 56.3% vs market implied 52.4%, giving +3.9pp edge
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 65%
OVER 7.5
  • Fusion posterior 65.2% over vs market 50% implied, huge +15.2pp edge
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Guardians +2.5 at near-even ML? Structural mispricing — posterior model says 56.3% cover (+14.9 EV). Under 22.5 even better: MC says 77.2% under.
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