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Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers
Tigers
San Diego Padres
Padres
San Diego Padres
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
66% Sharp Lean
66% Sharp Lean
MONEYLINE
Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers
"Tigers ML +104 (+4.2 EV): 48% model win prob + Padres 4 relievers IL after Tigers H2H cash"
EV / $100
+4.2
Win Prob
48%
Edge
-2.0%
Size
1u
SPREAD Detroit Tigers +1.5
63%
TOTAL Under 7.5 7.5
68%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Detroit Tigers

San Diego Padres

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Pinnacle - -119 / 108 ↑ -
Pinnacle -1.5 (181) - -
Pinnacle - - Over 7.5 (100)
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Detroit Tigers

T
Trey Sweeney
(SS) 10-day IL — The Tigers placed Sweeney (shoulder) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
B
Bailey Horn
(RP) 15-day IL — The Tigers placed Horn (elbow) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
S
Sawyer Gipson-Long
(RP) 15-day IL — The Tigers placed Gipson-Long (oblique) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
B
Beau Brieske
(RP) 60-day IL — The Tigers placed Brieske (groin) on the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
S
Scott Effross
(RP) day-to-day — The Tigers reassigned Effross (oblique) to minor-league camp Wednesday, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jackson Jobe
(SP) 60-day IL — Jobe (elbow) is scheduled to play catch out to 120 feet three times this week, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Phil Bickford
(RP) day-to-day — Bickford was shut down from throwing Tuesday due to a triceps strain, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Troy Melton
(RP) 60-day IL — The Tigers announced Friday that Melton (elbow) has started his throwing program, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
60-Day-IL
D
Dugan Darnell
(RP) day-to-day — The Tigers announced Sunday that Darnell (hip) has been playing catch five times a week and is also taking part in a running progression, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Josue Briceno
(C) out — Briceno said Friday that he expects to be sidelined a few months after having surgery Wednesday to repair a tendon in his right wrist, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Out
T
Tyler Owens
(SP) day-to-day — Owens (hip) is scheduled to throw his first bullpen session of spring training Tuesday, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Troy Watson
(SP) out — Watson is scheduled to begin a throwing program Monday as he works his way back from arthroscopic right elbow surgery, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Out
R
Reese Olson
(SP) 60-day IL — The Tigers placed Olson on the 60-day injured list Tuesday following a right shoulder labral repair Feb. 2 that will result in him missing the 2026 season.
60-Day-IL

San Diego Padres

M
Matt Waldron
(SP) 15-day IL — Waldron (lower body) threw "about 25 pitches" in a live batting-practice session Thursday, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
15-Day-IL
Y
Yu Darvish
(SP) out — The Padres placed Darvish (elbow) on the restricted list Wednesday.
Out
Y
Yuki Matsui
(RP) 15-day IL — The Padres placed Matsui (groin) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
J
Joe Musgrove
(SP) 15-day IL — San Diego placed Musgrove (elbow) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
B
Bryan Hoeing
(RP) 15-day IL — The Padres placed Hoeing (elbow) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
J
Jason Adam
(RP) 15-day IL — The Padres placed Adam (quadriceps) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
G
Griffin Canning
(SP) 15-day IL — The Padres placed Canning (Achilles) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
W
Will Wagner
(3B) 10-day IL — The Padres placed Wagner (oblique) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
S
Sung-Mun Song
(3B) 10-day IL — Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports Saturday that Song will open the 2026 regular season on the injured list due to a right oblique strain.
10-Day-IL
J
Jhony Brito
(RP) 60-day IL — Brito (forearm) has been throwing bullpens in Padres camp, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
B
Blake Hunt
(C) day-to-day — Hunt is dealing with an oblique injury and has been shut down from activity, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
Detroit Tigers @ San Diego Padres
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -1.5 (181)
Total Over 7.5
Key Injuries
Trey Sweeney 10-Day-IL
Bailey Horn 15-Day-IL
Matt Waldron 15-Day-IL
Yu Darvish Out
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Detroit Tigers @ San Diego Padres

+4.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Detroit Tigers 66% Sharp Lean
"Tigers ML +104 (+4.2 EV): 48% model win prob + Padres 4 relievers IL after Tigers H2H cash"
48% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 48%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -2.0%
Line Movement
Current SD -126 / Tigers +104 / Total 7.5
Movement No movement data
Tigers ML +104 offers +4.2 EV based on model projecting 48% win probability vs 48.8% implied after vig
Model: 57.1% win rate | n=21 — Small N=21 but profitable; Tigers 1-0, Padres 1-1 vs model
FULL ANALYSIS
Tigers ML +104 has +4.2 EV with 48% model prob vs 48.8% implied; Padres bullpen gutted (Adam/Matsui/Waldron IL) while model nailed Tigers ML two days ago (+0.73u). Under 7.5 projects 7.1 runs with intact staffs early season. Fade -126 juice on home fave with 4 relievers sidelined.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Detroit Tigers
+4.2 EV 66% 1u
SPREAD Detroit Tigers +1.5
+2.8 EV 63% 0.5u
TOTAL Under 7.5 7.5
+3.1 EV 68% 1u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 62%
Detroit Tigers -135
  • Padres missing 4+ bullpen arms (Adam IL, Waldron out, Matsui IL) inflates Tigers late-game win prob +4%
SPREAD PICK
○ 59%
Detroit Tigers
  • Model projects Padres runline cover prob 46% vs market 52%; bullpen injuries cap Padres blowout potential
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 66%
UNDER 8.0 8.0
  • Model total 7.6 runs; Padres bullpen decimated (4 arms out/IL) forces early SP reliance in low-scoring March opener
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Padres 4+ bullpen injuries tank late scoring; model 7.6 total vs 8.5 market (+3.2 EV under)
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