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New York Mets
New York Mets
Mets
San Francisco Giants
Giants
San Francisco Giants
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
74% High Edge
74% High Edge
SPREAD
San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants -120
"Giants spread +385 at Bovada = +58.7% EV from 13.7% sharp edge (Pinnacle 32.7% fair prob)"
EV / $100
+58.7
Win Prob
52%
Edge
+2.0%
Size
2.0u
MONEYLINE New York Mets None
60%
TOTAL over 7.0
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +120.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +17.0
Win Prob
31.4%
ML
219 / -219

Player Props Engine

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New York Mets

San Francisco Giants

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Market Consensus - -114 / 105 ↑ -
Market Consensus -1.5 (191) - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.0 (-116)
Fair Value Fair Value 205 / -205 -110 / 110 O/U -109 / 109
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

New York Mets

J
Juan Soto
(RF) day-to-day — Soto was diagnosed with a minor strain in his right calf Saturday, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Mike Tauchman
(RF) out — Tauchman underwent surgery Thursday to repair the torn meniscus in his left knee, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
Out
A
A.J. Minter
(RP) 15-day IL — The Mets placed Minter (lat) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
N
Nate Lavender
(RP) day-to-day — Lavender (elbow) cleared outright waivers Wednesday and was returned to the Mets.
Day-To-Day
J
Justin Hagenman
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture.
60-Day-IL
B
Brandon Waddell
(RP) day-to-day — The Mets outrighted Waddell to Triple-A Syracuse on Friday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Robert Stock
(RP) out — Stock experienced shoulder discomfort while playing with Team Israel in the World Baseball Classic and will undergo testing, Laura Albanese of Newsday reports.
Out
G
Grae Kessinger
(3B) out — Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said that Kessinger will get imaging done after suffering a left knee injury in Friday's Grapefruit League game against the Cardinals, SNY Mets reports.
Out
D
Dedniel Nunez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets transferred Nunez (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.
60-Day-IL
T
Tylor Megill
(SP) 60-day IL — The Mets and Megill (elbow) avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $2.5 million contract Thursday, Ari Alexander of 7 News Boston reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Reed Garrett
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Garrett (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL

San Francisco Giants

J
Jose Butto
(RP) 15-day IL — Butto will miss the next 2-4 months after undergoing surgery Saturday to remove a blood clot from his right arm, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Casey Schmitt
(3B) day-to-day — Schmitt (back) isn't in the lineup for Saturday's game against the Mets, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Joel Peguero
(RP) 15-day IL — Peguero (hamstring) threw a 20-pitch live batting practice session Monday, Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
15-Day-IL
S
Sam Hentges
(RP) 15-day IL — Hentges (knee/shoulder) threw 20 pitches during his live batting practice in Arizona on Monday, Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
15-Day-IL
H
Hayden Birdsong
(RP) 60-day IL — Birdsong underwent successful UCL reconstruction surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Reiver Sanmartin
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Sanmartin (hip) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
P
Parks Harber
(3B) out — The Giants announced Wednesday that Harber has been diagnosed with a Grade 2 right hamstring strain and will require 4-to-6 weeks of recovery time, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reports.
Out
R
Rowan Wick
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Wick (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jason Foley
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants signed Foley (shoulder) to a one-year contract Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
R
Randy Rodriguez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Rodriguez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -1.5 (191)
Total Over 7.0
Key Injuries
Juan Soto Day-To-Day
Mike Tauchman Out
Jose Butto 15-Day-IL
Casey Schmitt Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants

+58.7 EV
per $100 wagered
San Francisco Giants 74% High Edge
"Giants spread +385 at Bovada = +58.7% EV from 13.7% sharp edge (Pinnacle 32.7% fair prob)"
52% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 52%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +2.0%
Line Movement
Current SF -120 / Mets +100 (Total 7.0)
Movement No movement data
No positive EV on Giants ML at -120 (breakeven 54.5%, our prob 52%); Mets +100 offers +2.0 EV but sharp signals oppose
Model: 52.0% win rate | n=248 — MLB 129-119 (52%); H2H poor (6-10 Giants, 6-12 Mets); high edge spreads 100% (N=2)
FULL ANALYSIS
Massive +58.7% EV on Giants spread +385 at Bovada (Pinnacle fair 32.7% vs retail 20.6%) with strong sharp signal despite Omega even spread projection. Model totals 24.0 vs market 7.0 screams over but totals losing across tiers (42-56% WR). Recent 5 H2H picks 2-3 with SF sides 2-2, Mets 0-2.
SHARP MONEY
13.7% sharp edge on SF spread vs retail (Pinnacle fair home spread prob 32.7% vs retail 20.6%); +58.7% EV on Bovada SF spread +385
Recommended Sizing
2.0u
Positive EV with multiple confirming factors. Standard sizing.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD San Francisco Giants -120
+58.7 EV 74% 2.0u
MONEYLINE New York Mets None
+2.0 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL over 7.0
+1.8 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 64%
New York Mets -113
  • Omega Poisson/ELO shows 52% Mets win prob vs market 50.6% implied
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
New York Mets 2.2
  • 18.5% sharp divergence + omega_model even spread (0.0) vs market -2.2
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
OVER 8.0
  • Omega total 24.0 vs market 8.0 signals massive model overreaction
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Mets +2.2: 18.5% sharp edge + omega even spread vs market -2.2 = +52% EV Bovada
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