Home › MLB › Cincinnati Reds @ Miami Marlins
MLB
Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds
Reds
6 - 3
Final
Miami Marlins
Marlins
Miami Marlins
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
58% Lean
58% Lean
SPREAD
Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 0.0
"Reds +119 ML +5.8 EV (46.8% MC vs 45.7% breakeven) after 3-0 MIA sweep; model 14-5 vs CIN"
EV / $100
+3.1
Win Prob
47%
Edge
-3.2%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Cincinnati Reds None
62%
TOTAL under 7.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +144.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +16.5
Win Prob
29.6%
ML
238 / -238

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Cincinnati Reds

Miami Marlins

Box Score + OMEGA Props

Injury Report

Cincinnati Reds

J
Jose Trevino
(C) 10-day IL — Trevino is out of the lineup for Sunday's game against the Mets.
10-Day-IL
N
Nick Lodolo
(SP) 15-day IL — Lodolo is using a new "resource" to deal with his blister issue and is making some progress in his recovery. He played catch on Monday, Charlie Goldsmith of Charlie's Chalkboard reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Caleb Ferguson
(RP) 15-day IL — Ferguson (oblique) threw from 60 feet on flat ground Wednesday, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Connor Burns
(C) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
H
Hunter Greene
(SP) 60-day IL — The Reds placed Greene (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
J
Josh Staumont
(RP) day-to-day — The Reds re-signed Staumont to a minor-league contract Dec. 30.
Day-To-Day
A
Alex Young
(RP) out — Young revealed in a post on his personal Instagram account that he underwent season-ending surgery on his left elbow March 31.
Out
C
Carson Spiers
(SP) out — The Reds re-signed Spiers (elbow) to a minor-league contract with an invitation to spring training Monday.
Out

Miami Marlins

K
Kyle Stowers
(LF) 10-day IL — Marlins manager Clayton McCullough said Wednesday that Stowers (hamstring) should be ready to begin a rehab assignment "soon," Kevin Barral of FishonFirst.com reports.
10-Day-IL
T
Thomas White
(SP) day-to-day — White (oblique) will make his second rehab assignment for Single-A Jupiter on Wednesday, the Marlins' television broadcast reports.
Day-To-Day
P
Pete Fairbanks
(RP) Paternity — Fairbanks will start Sunday's game against the Yankees before being placed on the paternity list Monday, Isaac Azout of FishOnFirst.com reports.
paternity
C
Christopher Morel
(LF) 10-day IL — Morel was scratched from the lineup for Friday's game against the Rockies due to a left oblique strain, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
E
Esteury Ruiz
(LF) 10-day IL — The Marlins placed Ruiz (oblique) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday, retroactive to Sunday.
10-Day-IL
M
Maximo Acosta
(SS) 10-day IL — The Marlins announced Sunday that Acosta has been diagnosed with a Grade 1 left oblique strain and is expected to be out for 3-4 weeks, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
A
Adam Mazur
(SP) 60-day IL — The Marlins placed Mazur (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
R
Ronny Henriquez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Marlins placed Henriquez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.
60-Day-IL
J
Jesus Tinoco
(RP) out — The Marlins re-signed Tinoco (elbow) to a minor-league contract Jan. 5.
Out
Box Score
FINAL
Cincinnati Reds
Reds
6
-
Miami Marlins
Marlins
3
Cincinnati Reds 0.0
58% conf
W

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Cincinnati Reds @ Miami Marlins

+3.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Cincinnati Reds 58% Lean
"Reds +119 ML +5.8 EV (46.8% MC vs 45.7% breakeven) after 3-0 MIA sweep; model 14-5 vs CIN"
47% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 47%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -3.2%
Line Movement
Current MIA -144 / CIN +119 | Total 7.5
Movement No movement data
Reds ML +119 offers +5.8 EV vs our 46.8% win prob (breakeven 45.7%)
Model: 53.4% win rate | n=322 — MLB 53.4% N=322; 14-5 vs Reds, swept MIA yesterday
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega/MC project dead even 12-12 (pick +EV Reds ML +119 at 46.8% vs 45.7% breakeven) despite market MIA -144 juice—Reds 4-0 road/model 14-5 vs CIN exploits. Yesterday's 3-0 sweep confirms edge. Under 7.5 sharp vs model total 24.1 error (Alcantara 0.00/12K, Burns 0.82). Data quality 58% caps confidence.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

OMEGA Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Cincinnati Reds 0.0
+3.1 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Cincinnati Reds None
+5.8 EV 62% 1u
TOTAL under 7.5
+1.2 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 64%
Cincinnati Reds -217
  • Omega ML -217 (68.4% implied) matches our prob exactly but Reds calibration edge (11W-5L vs Marlins 4W-12L)
SPREAD PICK
○ 58%
Cincinnati Reds 0.0
  • Omega spread 0.0 but ELO projects Reds -1.7 (1511 rating vs 1468), model vs Reds 11-5 (69%)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 24.0
  • Model total 24.0 extreme for MLB (avg ~8.5); totals losing across all tiers (42-43% WR)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Reds ML -217 model edge on ELO -1.7 + 11-5 calibration vs Marlins but 0% EV at juice; Burns/Alcantara duel projects under 24
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