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Ligue 1
Stade Rennais
Stade Rennais
Rennais
Brest
Brest
Brest
Full Game Analysis
Ligue 1
Ω OMEGA PICK
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Stade Rennais Stade Rennais -0.5
"Rennais -0.5 (+4.1 EV): 12-8-7 record + Lepaul 13G edge vs Brest home D (1.4 GA), model 60% prob"
EV / $100
+4.1
Win Prob
60%
Edge
+10.0%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Stade Rennais None
64%
TOTAL under 2.5
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Stade Rennais

Brest

Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
—
Moneyline
BRE -100 / STA -100
Win Probability
50% - 50%

Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.

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Stade Rennais @ Brest
until kickoff
Analysis starts at kickoff

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Stade Rennais @ Brest

+4.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Stade Rennais 65% Sharp Lean
"Rennais -0.5 (+4.1 EV): 12-8-7 record + Lepaul 13G edge vs Brest home D (1.4 GA), model 60% prob"
60% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 60%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +10.0%
Line Movement
Open No open line available
Current Spread: Stade Rennais -0.5 (Brest +125 / Stade Rennais -170); Total: 2.5; ML: Brest +205 / Stade Rennais -135
Movement No movement data
Stade Rennais ML +EV at -135 (breakeven 57.4%, our model 60%); spread EV +4.1 at -170
FULL ANALYSIS
Stade Rennais -0.5 (-170) offers value with 12-8-7 record topping Brest's 10-6-11, driven by Lepaul's 13 goals (0.52 GPG) vs Brest's 1.4 GA/home. Model sees 60% win prob vs 57.4% implied (-135 ML breakeven). Under 2.5 aligns with Ligue 1's 2.4 avg goals but cap exposure given model total losses.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Stade Rennais -0.5
+4.1 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE Stade Rennais None
+3.2 EV 64% 1u
TOTAL under 2.5
+1.8 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 66%
Stade Rennais 125
  • Rennes undervalued at +125 (breakeven 44.4%) with 60% model prob; Ligue 1 away teams with top scorers like Lepaul (13G/25M) convert 58% vs mid-table
SPREAD PICK
● 64%
Stade Rennais -0.5
  • Model projects 60% Rennes win prob vs 61.5% breakeven, plus 1-0 or 2-1 scoreline fits Poisson (exp goals: Rennes 1.4, Brest 1.1)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
UNDER 2.5
  • Ligue 1 avg 2.4 goals/game; model Poisson total 2.5 but 62% under hit rate in neutral venue/no flags (calibration shows totals losing)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Rennes ML +125 (60% model vs 55.6% implied, +5 EV) on Lepaul 13G firepower vs Brest D; fade heavy Brest home juice.
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