Home › MLS › Vancouver Whitecaps @ San Jose Earthquakes
MLS
Vancouver Whitecaps
Vancouver Whitecaps
Whitecaps
San Jose Earthquakes
Earthquake
San Jose Earthquakes
Full Game Analysis
MLS
Ω OMEGA PICK
59% Lean
59% Lean
SPREAD
San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 0.5
"San Jose +190 ML +20.6 EV (41.6% posterior vs 34.5% mkt); O3.5 +21 EV (63.7% vs 50%, Omega 7.5 total)"
EV / $100
-5.2
Win Prob
42%
Edge
-8.4%
MONEYLINE San Jose Earthquakes None
42%
TOTAL over 3.5
64%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +0.5
Total
7.5
Edge: +4.0
Win Prob
43.0%
ML
133 / -133

Player Props Engine

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Vancouver Whitecaps

San Jose Earthquakes

ELO Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
1.3
Moneyline
SAN -121 / VAN 121
Win Probability
55% - 45%

ELO model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.

Game Preview
Vancouver Whitecaps @ San Jose Earthquakes
until kickoff
Analysis starts at kickoff

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Vancouver Whitecaps @ San Jose Earthquakes

+-5.2 EV
per $100 wagered
San Jose Earthquakes 59% Lean
"San Jose +190 ML +20.6 EV (41.6% posterior vs 34.5% mkt); O3.5 +21 EV (63.7% vs 50%, Omega 7.5 total)"
42% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 42%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -8.4%
Line Movement
Current Spread: Vancouver -0.5 (San Jose +0.5 -165 / Vancouver -0.5 +120) | ML: San Jose +190 / Vancouver -125 | Total: 3.5 (-110)
Movement No significant line movement detected
+20.6 EV on San Jose ML +190; models fuse to 41.6% home win vs 34.5% implied (calibrated +7.1pp edge)
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion IDs +7.1pp home win edge (41.6% vs 34.5%) for +20.6 EV on San Jose +190 ML despite market shade; Dixon-Coles even lambdas 6.4-6.4 drive over 3.5 posterior to 63.7% (+13.7pp, +21 EV). Omega spread/total massively divergent (0.0/-0.5 market, 7.5/3.5 total) signals inefficiency in smaller MLS market. Degraded data caps conf, but Tier 1 quant convergence on even high-scoring spot with both teams 8-1-1+ streaks.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD San Jose Earthquakes 0.5
-5.2 EV 59%
MONEYLINE San Jose Earthquakes None
+20.6 EV 42% 1.0u
TOTAL over 3.5
+21.6 EV 64% 1.0u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 42%
San Jose Earthquakes 190
  • Bayesian posterior 41.6% home win vs market prior 34.5% (+7.1pp edge); high payout overcomes vig
SPREAD PICK
○ 59%
San Jose Earthquakes 0.5
  • Omega spread 0.0 vs market Vancouver -0.5 (0.5pt edge to home +0.5); Dixon-Coles home win+draw 59.3%
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 64%
OVER 3.5
  • Over 3.5 posterior 63.7% vs market 50% (+13.7pp edge); Omega total 7.5 & MC proj 6.9 vs 3.5
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
San Jose +190 ML +20.6 EV (41.6% posterior vs 34.5% mkt); O3.5 +21 EV (63.7% vs 50%, Omega 7.5 total)
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