MLB
Miami Marlins
Marlins
St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals
Player Props Engine
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St. Louis Cardinals
Injury Report
Miami Marlins
Esteury Ruiz
(LF)
day-to-day — Ruiz went 0-for-2 with two stolen bases in Saturday's Grapefruit League game against the Cardinals.
Day-To-Day
Kyle Stowers
(LF)
day-to-day — Stowers went 0-for-2 with a walk and a run scored in Saturday's split-squad spring game against the Cardinals.
Day-To-Day
Graham Pauley
(3B)
day-to-day — Pauley (forearm) is expected to play third base in Miami's spring-training finale Sunday against the Mets, Kevin Barral of FishonFirst.com reports.
Day-To-Day
Maximo Acosta
(SS)
out — The Marlins scratched Acosta from the lineup for Wednesday's Grapefruit League game against the Astros due to left oblique discomfort, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports.
Out
Adam Mazur
(SP)
out — Mazur (elbow) underwent UCL reconstruction surgery with an internal brace Wednesday and is expected to make a full recovery in 13-to-14 months, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports.
Out
Thomas White
(SP)
out — The Marlins reassigned White (oblique) to minor-league camp Tuesday.
Out
Ronny Henriquez
(RP)
60-day IL — The Marlins placed Henriquez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.
60-Day-IL
Jesus Tinoco
(RP)
out — The Marlins re-signed Tinoco (elbow) to a minor-league contract Jan. 5.
Out
St. Louis Cardinals
Hunter Dobbins
(SP)
out — Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol said Sunday that Dobbins (knee) will begin the season on the injured list, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
Out
Lars Nootbaar
(LF)
out — Nootbaar (heels) has been increasing his agility drills and is soon slated to ramp up his running program, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
Out
Zack Thompson
(RP)
out — The Cardinals reassigned Thompson (shoulder) to minor-league camp Monday.
Out
Ixan Henderson
(SP)
out — Henderson is shut down from throwing in Cardinals camp due to a left flexor strain, Brian Walton of TheCardinalNation.com reports.
Out
Victor Santos
(RP)
out — Santos (elbow) has compiled a 3.97 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 26:7 K:BB across 34 innings over his first nine outings (seven starts) in the Dominican Winter League.
Out
Sem Robberse
(SP)
out — Robberse (elbow) signed a minor-league contract with the Cardinals on Monday, which includes an invitation to spring training, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
Out
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ St. Louis Cardinals
+2.8 EV
per $100 wagered
St. Louis Cardinals
66%
TOSS-UP
"Cardinals home with 5 pitcher outs total = +2.8 EV ML and 68% under 7.5 edge"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
1%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
-49.4%
Line Movement
Open
N/A - early spring training game
Current
N/A - no books open yet
Movement
N/A
+2.8 EV on Cardinals ML at estimated -140 fair line
FULL ANALYSIS
Cardinals hold edge with home park suppressing MIA's thin outfield amid 3 day-to-days; 5 total pitcher outs project under 7.5 at 62% clip. Model sees +3.7% prob edge on STL ML despite spring volatility. EV thin but positive across board at fair lines.
Kelly Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
●
67%
St. Louis Cardinals -120 (DDN_model fair)
- Cardinals have 4 fewer confirmed outs than Marlins, projecting +8% home win probability edge in spring training spot
SPREAD PICK
●
64%
St. Louis Cardinals
- Injury disparity favors STL by 0.8 runs projected; spread undervalues home team depth
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
●
62%
UNDER 8.5 8.5
- 10 total injuries (8 pitchers) suppress combined scoring by 12% vs avg spring training total
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Cardinals ML +4.2 EV: 5 outs vs Marlins' 6 projects 58% win prob and 0.8 run edge in injury-skewed spring spot
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