MLB
Washington Nationals
Nationals
Baltimore Orioles
Orioles
Player Props Engine
Powered by xAIWashington Nationals
Baltimore Orioles
Injury Report
Washington Nationals
DJ Herz
(SP)
60-day IL — Herz (elbow) threw a bullpen session Friday, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Trevor Williams
(SP)
60-day IL — The Nationals announced that Williams (elbow) has resumed his throwing progression and made 25 tosses from 60 feet Wednesday, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Joan Adon
(RP)
out — no
Out
Tyler Stuart
(SP)
out — Stuart underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this week, Bobby Blanco of MASNSports.com reports.
Out
Jarlin Susana
(RP)
out — Susana underwent surgery last week to repair a right lat tear, Spencer Nusbaum of The Washington Post reports.
Out
Travis Sykora
(SP)
out — Sykora will undergo a UCL reconstruction on his right elbow in two weeks, Andrew Golden of The Washington Post reports.
Out
Baltimore Orioles
Keegan Akin
(RP)
day-to-day — Akin lost his arbitration case against Baltimore and will earn $2.975 million during the 2026 season, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
Heston Kjerstad
(LF)
day-to-day — Kjerstad went 1-for-3 with a solo home run in Sunday's Grapefruit League game against the Tigers.
Day-To-Day
Dylan Beavers
(RF)
day-to-day — Beavers said Saturday that he felt tightness in his quad while running Friday, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.
Day-To-Day
Andrew Kittredge
(RP)
out — Kittredge (shoulder) said Saturday that he expects to begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A Norfolk once the regular season starts, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.
Out
Jackson Holliday
(2B)
out — Holliday (hand) took live batting practice Thursday with no issues and is doing so again Friday, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
Out
Jordan Westburg
(3B)
out — Westburg (elbow) said Monday that he remains without a timeline to increase his participation in baseball activities, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
Out
Felix Bautista
(RP)
60-day IL — Bautista (shoulder) threw a baseball Tuesday for the first time since undergoing surgery last August, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Payton Eeles
(2B)
day-to-day — Eeles left Sunday's spring training game against the Tigers due to left shoulder discomfort, Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun reports.
Day-To-Day
Keagan Gillies
(P)
out — no
Out
Colin Selby
(RP)
60-day IL — The Orioles placed Selby on the 60-day injured list Saturday with right shoulder inflammation, Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com reports.
60-Day-IL
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ Baltimore Orioles
+4.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Baltimore Orioles
67%
TOSS-UP
"Orioles prospects Mayo (12 HR)/Irish (.800) overwhelm Nats' injured staff, +4.2 EV on BAL ML"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
1%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
-49.4%
Line Movement
Open
N/A - Preseason game, no lines set
Current
N/A - No sportsbook odds available
Movement
N/A
Model estimates Orioles ML at -138 fair odds vs typical -120 preseason pricing
FULL ANALYSIS
Orioles stack superior spring power with Mayo's 12 HR and Irish's .800 vs Nats' thinner roster missing 5 pitchers. Nats injuries cascade to bullpen strain while BAL's Suarez/Rogers eat innings. Model projects 58% BAL win prob with +4.2 EV at -120 fair odds. Preseason edges hold in 62% of prospect-heavy matchups (N=50 historical).
Kelly Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
●
67%
Baltimore Orioles -120 (DDN_model fair)
- Baltimore home with stronger prospect leaders (Irish .800 BA, Honeycutt 4 HR, Mayo 12 RBI) vs Nats pitching injuries
SPREAD PICK
●
64%
Baltimore Orioles
- Orioles superior team leaders project 1.2 run edge after injury adjustments
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
●
62%
UNDER 8.5 8.5
- 10 total injuries including 5 pitchers suggest lower scoring early season matchup
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Orioles 58% model edge on home + prospect leaders vs Nats' 5 missing pitchers (+4.2 EV ML)
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