Home › NHL › Calgary Flames @ Dallas Stars
NHL
Calgary Flames
Calgary Flames
Flames
3 - 4
Final
Dallas Stars
Stars
Dallas Stars
Full Game Analysis
NHL
Ω OMEGA PICK
64% Sharp Lean
64% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars -245
"Dallas spread +27% EV at Bovada +11.5% sharp div vs omega even line; fade -245 ML juice"
EV / $100
+4.8
Win Prob
46%
Edge
-4.2%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Calgary Flames None
58%
TOTAL under 5.5
61%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +245.0
Total
19.0
Edge: +13.5
Win Prob
32.3%
ML
210 / -210

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Calgary Flames

Dallas Stars

Box Score + OMEGA Props

Injury Report

Calgary Flames

K
Kevin Bahl
(D) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
J
Joel Hanley
(D) out — out
Out
S
Samuel Honzek
(LW) Injured Reserve — Honzek (upper body) will not return this season, per Pat Steinberg of Sportsnet 960 The Fan on Friday.
Injured Reserve
J
Jonathan Huberdeau
(LW) Injured Reserve — Huberdeau (hip) was put on injured reserve Saturday, per the NHL media site.
Injured Reserve
C
Cullen Potter
(LW) out — out
Out

Dallas Stars

N
Nathan Bastian
(RW) out — Head coach Glen Gulutzan said Monday that Bastian (hand) will be sidelined for 3-4 weeks, Lia Assimakopoulos of The Dallas Morning News reports.
Out
R
Radek Faksa
(C) Injured Reserve — Faksa (lower body) won't be an option against the Flames on Tuesday but is nearing a return to action, Brien Rea of Victory+ reports.
Injured Reserve
S
Sam Steel
(C) out — Steel's (hip) timeline for a return to the lineup has yet to be determined, but he is not expected to suit up in the short term, Owen Newkirk of DLLS Sports reports Tuesday.
Out
M
Michael Bunting
(LW) out — Bunting (lower body) isn't expected to be return to the lineup in the near future, per Owen Newkirk of DLLS Sports on Tuesday.
Out
R
Roope Hintz
(C) out — Hintz (lower body) will be out for an extended period of time, Brien Rea of Victory+ reports Saturday.
Out
T
Tyler Seguin
(C) Injured Reserve — Seguin (knee) will miss the remainder of the 2025-26 campaign and the entirety of the playoffs, Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet reports Thursday.
Injured Reserve
Box Score
FINAL
Calgary Flames
Flames
3
-
Dallas Stars
Stars
4
Dallas Stars -245
64% conf
L

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Calgary Flames @ Dallas Stars

+4.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Dallas Stars 64% Sharp Lean
"Dallas spread +27% EV at Bovada +11.5% sharp div vs omega even line; fade -245 ML juice"
46% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 46%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -4.2%
Line Movement
Current DAL -245 / O/U 5.5
Movement No movement data
Heavy juice kills ML value (-245 needs 71% breakeven, we project 46%); massive +27% EV on DAL spread +175 at Bovada per +EV analysis
Model: 49.1% win rate | n=273 — NHL 49.1% (N=273); reduce 55-67 tier conf by 4-6 pts per tier data; ML profitable in medium tier
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega even spread (9.6-9.6) vs market DAL -245 screams value on Flames ML (+200) but sharp money hammers home spread (11.5% div, +27% EV Bovada +175). RLM + sharp under total edge on 5.5 despite omega 19 total. Dallas 5 key injuries (Hintz out) but home record 23-11-4 holds vs Calgary 11-24-3 road.
SHARP MONEY
11.5% sharp edge on spread (home) + RLM on total under; strongest signal is Bovada DAL spread +175 yielding +27.3% EV vs Pinnacle fair 46.3%
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

OMEGA Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Dallas Stars -245
+4.8 EV 64% 1u
MONEYLINE Calgary Flames None
+2.1 EV 58% 0.5u
TOTAL under 5.5
+3.2 EV 61% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 56%
Dallas Stars -125
  • Home ice + Calgary key injuries (Huberdeau IR); NHL model favors Stars 56% despite depleted rosters
SPREAD PICK
○ 54%
Dallas Stars -1.5
  • Stars missing Hintz/Bunting but Calgary without Huberdeau; model projects 3.2-2.6 Dallas win
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 52%
UNDER 5.5
  • Multiple injuries both teams reduce scoring; model projects 5.8 total
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Stars ML -125 (model 56%): Home ice vs Calgary's Huberdeau-less attack, +3.2 EV despite Hintz out
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