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NFL
Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers
Chargers
Seattle Seahawks
Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks
Full Game Analysis
NFL
Ω OMEGA PICK +50.0% EV LATE TO MARKET
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Seattle Seahawks Seattle Seahawks -7.0
EV / $100
+12.2
Win Prob
60%
Edge
+6.5%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Seattle Seahawks None
50%
TOTAL under 42.5
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 6.7% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$553083 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (87% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 38 trades Kalshi: 453 trades Largest: $179394
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
-18.0
Edge: -11.0
Total
40.0
Edge: -2.5
Win Prob
91.8%
ML
-1113 / 1113
⚠
Key Number Alert
KEY NUMBER: Spread at -7.0 — 9.2% of NFL games land on 7. Buying the half point is worth ~4.6% win probability. Pay up to -120 for the buy. OMEGA line (-18.0) disagrees by 11.0 pts — added value in the half-point buy.

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Los Angeles Chargers

Seattle Seahawks

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -340 / 270 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -327 / 270 -
Sharp Action Best Line -14.5 (240) - -
Market Consensus -7.5 (109) ↓ - -
Value Line -7.0 (-112) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 43.0 (-103)
De-Vigged Fair Value 116 / -116 -304 / 304 O/U 104 / -104
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Los Angeles Chargers

P
Patrick Herbert
(TE) active — The Chargers elevated Herbert from their practice squad to their active roster for Sunday's matchup in Seattle.
Active
D
Dalvin Tomlinson
(DT) out — Tomlinson (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Seahawks.
Out
B
Brenen Thompson
(WR) out — Thompson (quadriceps) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Seahawks.
Out
C
Charlie Kolar
(TE) out — Kolar (forearm) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Seahawks.
Out
D
Donte Jackson
(CB) questionable — Jackson (concussion) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Seahawks.
Questionable
E
Elijah Molden
(CB) questionable — Molden (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Seahawks.
Questionable
T
Trey Lance
(QB) questionable — Lance (groin) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against Seattle.
Questionable
D
Derwin James Jr.
(S) questionable — James (hamstring) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Seahawks.
Questionable
K
Keaton Mitchell
(RB) active — Mitchell (ankle) was a full participant in Friday's practice and does not have an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Seahawks, Kris Rhim of ESPN.com reports.
Active
L
Ladd McConkey
(WR) questionable — McConkey (foot) is questionable for Sunday's game against Seattle, Kris Rhim of ESPN.com reports.
Questionable
J
Justin Eboigbe
(DT) active
Active
K
Kayode Awosika
(G) out — out
Out
A
Alec Ingold
(FB) active — Ingold finished with three receptions for 35 yards on four targets in Sunday's 24-16 loss to the Bills.
Active
T
Tuli Tuipulotu
(LB) active — Tuipulotu logged six tackles (five solo), including 1.5 sacks, in the Chargers' 24-16 loss to the Bills on Sunday.
Active
G
Genesis Smith
(S) active — Smith accumulated five tackles (two solo) and two interceptions in the Chargers' 24-16 loss to the Bills on Sunday.
Active
O
Oronde Gadsden
(TE) active — Gadsden didn't catch any of his three targets in Sunday's loss to the Bills.
Active
Q
Quentin Johnston
(WR) active — Johnston caught three of six targets for 40 yards during Sunday's 24-16 loss to the Bills.
Active
D
DJ Uiagalelei
(QB) active
Active
A
Alex Harkey
(G) active
Active
T
Tre' Harris
(WR) active — Harris caught six of seven targets for 76 yards during Sunday's 24-16 loss to Buffalo.
Active
C
Cameron Dicker
(PK) active — Dicker went 3-for-4 on field-goal attempts and made his lone extra-point try during the Chargers' 24-16 loss to the Bills on Sunday.
Active
J
Justin Herbert
(QB) active — Herbert completed 20 of 34 passes for 226 yards with one touchdown and one interception and rushed four times for 17 yards in the Chargers' 24-16 loss to the Bills on Sunday.
Active
O
Omarion Hampton
(RB) active — Hampton rushed 15 times for 56 yards and failed to bring in his only target in the Chargers' 24-16 loss to the Bills on Sunday.
Active
R
Rodney Shelley
(CB) active — Shelley (hamstring) is active Week 3 against the Bills.
Active
T
Trey Pipkins III
(OT) Injured Reserve — The Chargers placed Pipkins (knee) on injured reserve Saturday.
Injured Reserve

Seattle Seahawks

V
Velus Jones Jr.
(RB) active — Seattle signed Jones from the practice squad to the 53-man roster Saturday, John Boyle of the team's official site reports.
Active
J
Jadarian Price
(RB) Injured Reserve — Price (chest) was placed on injured reserve Saturday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.
Injured Reserve
T
Ty Okada
(S) questionable — Okada (hamstring) is listed as questionable ahead of Sunday's game against the Chargers.
Questionable
J
Julian Love
(S) active — Love (calf) does not have any injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Chargers.
Active
C
Chazz Surratt
(LB) questionable — questionable
Questionable
G
George Holani
(RB) active — Holani (rib) doesn't have an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Chargers, while teammate Jadarian Price (chest) has been ruled out.
Active
Z
Zach Charbonnet
(RB) out — Charbonnet (knee) was a limited practice participant Thursday and Friday, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports.
Out
E
Emanuel Wilson
(RB) active — With Jadarian Price (chest) out for Sunday's game against the Chargers, Wilson is expected to take on an expanded role out of the backfield, Gregg Bell of The Tacoma News Tribune reports.
Active
B
Brandon Pili
(DT) active — Pili (neck) was a full practice participant Wednesday and Thursday, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports.
Active
G
Grey Zabel
(G) active
Active
J
Jarran Reed
(DT) active
Active
R
Rashid Shaheed
(WR) active — Shaheed caught two passes on three targets for 14 yards during the Seahawks' 33-31 loss to the Commanders on Sunday, He also returned three punts for 29 yards and added 63 yards on two kickoff returns.
Active
A
AJ Barner
(TE) active — Barner caught five of nine targets for 69 yards in the Seahawks' 33-31 loss to the Commanders on Sunday.
Active
C
Connor O'Toole
(LB) active
Active
M
Montorie Foster Jr.
(WR) active
Active
J
Jalen Milroe
(QB) active
Active
A
Avery Smith
(CB) active
Active
J
Jason Myers
(PK) active — Myers made his only field-goal attempt, a 57 yarder, and all four of his extra-point tries in Sunday's 33-31 loss to the Commanders.
Active
C
Cooper Kupp
(WR) active — Kupp caught four of five targets for 46 yards and a touchdown during Sunday's 33-31 loss to the Commanders.
Active
J
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
(WR) active — Smith-Njigba caught 10 of 14 targets for 128 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 33-31 loss to the Commanders.
Active
S
Sam Darnold
(QB) active — Darnold completed 31 of 45 passes for 379 yards and four touchdowns with two interceptions in Sunday's 33-31 loss to the Commanders. He added five yards on his only carry.
Active
N
Nick Emmanwori
(S) active — Emmanwori (hamstring) returned to Sunday's game against the Commanders, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports.
Active
D
Drew Lock
(QB) active — Lock will return to a backup role for Sunday's game at Washington after coach Mike Macdonald said Friday that Sam Darnold (glute) is "going to play," John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports.
Active
E
Ernest Jones IV
(LB) active — Jones (neck) was a full participant in Thursday's practice, Brady Henderson of ESPN.com reports.
Active
B
Brady Russell
(FB) active
Active
Game Preview
Los Angeles Chargers @ Seattle Seahawks
until kickoff
Current Line
Spread -14.5 (240)
Total Over 43.0
Key Injuries
Patrick Herbert Active
Dalvin Tomlinson Out
Velus Jones Jr. Active
Jadarian Price Injured Reserve
Analysis starts at kickoff

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Los Angeles Chargers @ Seattle Seahawks

+12.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Seattle Seahawks 65% Sharp Lean
OMEGA model sees no actionable edge on this game. OMEGA -18.0 vs -7.0 with 29.0-10.9 projection and totals 40.0 vs 42.5: lean Seattle -7.0 and under 42.5, -375 ML juice
60% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 60%
Book Implied 54%
Edge +6.5%
Line Movement
Current Seattle Seahawks -7.0 / Total 42.5
Movement No opening line supplied; current Draft Kings spread -7.0 with home -115 / away -105, total 42.5, ML -375 / 295
60.0% vs 53.5% implied at -115 gives +12.2 EV per $100 on Seattle -7.0; edge driven by OMEGA -18.0, EWMA 22.2 vs 14.6, and 2-1 vs 0-3 records
FULL ANALYSIS
OMEGA has Seattle 29.0-10.9 with spread -18.0 vs market -7.0, an 11.0-pt gap backed by EWMA 22.2 vs 14.6 and 2-1 vs 0-3 records. Total models agree under: OMEGA 40.0 and decomposed 40.8 vs 42.5. With Charbonnet out and no sharp or movement data, take only the model lean Seattle -7.0 and under 42.5, and pass the -375 ML juice.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Seattle Seahawks -7.0
+12.2 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE Seattle Seahawks None
+50.0 EV 50%
TOTAL under 42.5
+5.5 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 50%
Seattle Seahawks -375
  • Model win prob 91.8% vs 79.0% implied at -375, but -375 is worse than -250 so ML filter forces PASS despite math edge
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
Seattle Seahawks -7.0
  • OMEGA -18.0 vs market -7.0 is an 11.0-pt gap with expected score 29.0-10.9, EWMA 22.2 vs 14.6, and 2-1 vs 0-3 record support
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
UNDER 42.5
  • OMEGA total and decomposed 40.8 both under 42.5 by 2.0+ pts with EWMA combined form 36.8 supporting lower scoring
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Seahawks -7 at -115: OMEGA projects 18-point win, key number 7 adds 4.6% edge, buy the half point.
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