MLS
San Diego FC
FC
Seattle Sounders FC
FC
Whale Activity Detected
$7185682 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home
Polymarket: 2016 trades
Largest: $164029
Ω OMEGA LINE
OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +0.5
Total
7.5
Edge: +5.0
Win Prob
46.0%
ML
117 / -117
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGASan Diego FC
Seattle Sounders FC
ELO Model Lines
MODELSpread
6.0
Moneyline
SEA -236
/
SAN 236
Win Probability
70%
-
30%
ELO model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.
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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS
San Diego FC @ Seattle Sounders FC
+0.9 EV
per $100 wagered
Seattle Sounders FC
60%
Lean
"64.9pp over edge on 2.5 total (model 7.5 proj), whales ($6.8M extreme) back SEA ML +1.3pp posterior"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
60%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+9.7%
Line Movement
Current
SEA -0.5 (-145/ +105), ML SEA -140 / SD +310, Total 2.5
Movement
No significant line movement detected.
Marginal +EV on home ML/spread; massive +23.9 EV on over 2.5 from posterior 64.9%.
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion posterior 59.7% Seattle win vs 58.3% implied (+1.3pp edge) anchored by ELO dominance, confirmed by extreme $6.8M whale volume on home. Total mismatch glaring: omega/MC/Dixon-Coles project ~7+ goals vs 2.5 line (64.9% over posterior). Seattle turf +8% pace adds scoring bias; data gaps reduce conf despite signals.
SHARP MONEY
Extreme whale volume $6.8M from 101 profitable wallets on home (institutional tier).
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
59%
Seattle Sounders FC -140
- Posterior edge +1.3pp on home ML; breakeven 58.3% exceeded marginally
SPREAD PICK
○
60%
Seattle Sounders FC -0.5
- Bayesian posterior 59.7% home win vs market 58.3% implied for -0.5 cover equivalent
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
60%
OVER 2.5
- Posterior 64.9% over vs 50% implied; omega 7.5 and MC 3.2-3.5 vs market 2.5
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
64.9pp over edge on 2.5 total (model 7.5 proj), whales ($6.8M extreme) back SEA ML +1.3pp posterior
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