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NHL
Philadelphia Flyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Flyers
New York Rangers
Rangers
New York Rangers
Full Game Analysis
NHL
Ω DDN SI PICK +5.1% EV
55% Lean
55% Lean
MONEYLINE
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers None
"Total UNDER 5.5 at +102 is the only live number: +5.1% EV vs Pinnacle fair 52%, sharp RLM on the under — both goalies on IR/Shest IS NOT here, scoring pool is depressed."
EV / $100
-4.1
Win Prob
61%
SPREAD Philadelphia Flyers 1.5
62%
TOTAL under 5.5
58%
Full DDN SI Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors under side. 3.6% divergence on total with strong signal. RLM detected on total.
Sharp: under Boost: +1
Whale Activity Detected
$39871 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (75% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 5 trades Kalshi: 76 trades Largest: $9951

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Philadelphia Flyers

New York Rangers

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -147 / 127 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -146 / 129 -
Value Line - -155 / 130 -
Sharp Action Best Line -1.5 (173) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (172) ↓ - -
Value Line -1.5 (165) ↓ - -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 6.0 (-103)
Market Consensus - - Over 6.0 (101)
Value Line - - Over 5.5 (-127)
De-Vigged Fair Value 188 / -188 -138 / 138 O/U 108 / -108
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Philadelphia Flyers

R
Rasmus Ristolainen
(D) Injured Reserve — Ristolainen (hand) was placed on injured reserve, retroactive to Oct. 24, on Tuesday.
Injured Reserve
N
Nikita Grebenkin
(RW) Injured Reserve — Grebenkin (back) underwent successful surgery and is expected to miss at least four months.
Injured Reserve

New York Rangers

S
Sean Durzi
(D) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
J
Joonas Korpisalo
(G) Injured Reserve — Korpisalo (foot) was reassigned to AHL Hartford on Wednesday for a conditioning stint, Mollie Walker of the New York Post.
Injured Reserve
I
Igor Shesterkin
(G) Injured Reserve — Shesterkin will require surgery and a lengthy rehab process to address his season-ending right knee injury, Vince Z. Mercogliano of The Athletic reports Sunday.
Injured Reserve
J
Joe Veleno
(C) Injured Reserve — Veleno (lower body) was placed on long-term injured reserve Saturday, Vince Z. Mercogliano of The Athletic reports.
Injured Reserve
A
Aidan Thompson
(C) Injured Reserve — ir-nr
Injured Reserve
A
Adam Sykora
(LW) Injured Reserve — ir
Injured Reserve
Game Preview
Philadelphia Flyers @ New York Rangers
until puck drop
Current Line
Spread -1.5 (173)
Total Over 6.0
Key Injuries
Rasmus Ristolainen Injured Reserve
Nikita Grebenkin Injured Reserve
Sean Durzi Day-To-Day
Joonas Korpisalo Injured Reserve
Analysis starts at puck drop

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Recorded picks and reasons

These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.

Spread: Philadelphia Flyers 1.5 (-198) PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-04T03:04:51.335391 UTC

Puckline posteriors show away covers +1.5 at 63.7% vs market 63.4% (+0.3pp edge, the highest-covering cell), driven by the Rangers' -25% critical goalie injury impact.

Total: under 5.5 (+102) PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-05T01:01:58.367181 UTC

Market Consensus fair value puts the under at 52.0% vs the retail +102 price (breakeven 49.5%) = +5.1% EV, the only positive-EV cell on the board.

Moneyline: Philadelphia Flyers (+130) PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-03T17:42:51.857418 UTC

Rangers lose both Shesterkin and Korpisalo (IR, critical quality), a -25% net injury impact vs -12.6% for Philly — but Market Consensus fair value (away 41.7%) still sits below +130 breakeven of 43.5%.

Player Prop: over (-110) PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-04T03:34:35.224703 UTC

Fox leads the Rangers with 16-17 helpers and runs the power play; with Veleno and Thompson out, offensive zone usage clusters toward the top unit — but roster is unvalidated, so confidence capped at 60.

Ω
DDN SI ANALYSIS

Philadelphia Flyers @ New York Rangers

+-4.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Philadelphia Flyers 55% Lean
"Total UNDER 5.5 at +102 is the only live number: +5.1% EV vs Pinnacle fair 52%, sharp RLM on the under — both goalies on IR/Shest IS NOT here, scoring pool is depressed."
61% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 61%
Book Implied 61%
Edge 0.0%
Line Movement
Open No opening line movement detected (line velocity flat)
Current Rangers ML -155 / Flyers ML +130; Spread NYR -1.5 (164/-198); Total 5.5 (-127/+102)
Movement No significant line movement
FULL ANALYSIS
The market has this one nailed: Bayesian posterior on the Rangers ML (60.8%) is exactly the devigged book price — 0.0pp edge, so no side plays. The real number is the total: Pinnacle fair under is 52.0% but the retail under pays +102 (breakeven 49.5%), a +5.1% EV cell, and the sharps signal 3.6% divergence on the UNDER with RLM confirming — market is converging, move fast. Rangers lose both Shesterkin and Korpisalo (net -25%), Flyers only -12.6%, and whale money ($39.8K STRONG tier) is still on home — conflicting with the away lean, we respect the sharper (neutral) signal instead.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Philadelphia Flyers None
-4.1 EV 55%
SPREAD Philadelphia Flyers 1.5
-2.2 EV 62%
TOTAL under 5.5
+5.1 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Philadelphia Flyers 130
  • Rangers lose both Shesterkin and Korpisalo (IR, critical quality), a -25% net injury impact vs -12.6% for Philly — but Market Consensus fair value (away 41.7%) still sits below +130 breakeven of 43.5%
SPREAD PICK
○ 62%
Philadelphia Flyers 1.5
  • Puckline posteriors show away covers +1.5 at 63.7% vs market 63.4% (+0.3pp edge, the highest-covering cell), driven by the Rangers' -25% critical goalie injury impact
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
UNDER 5.5
  • Market Consensus fair value puts the under at 52.0% vs the retail +102 price (breakeven 49.5%) = +5.1% EV, the only positive-EV cell on the board
About This Analysis

DDN SI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Rangers ML 61.2% fused vs 60% Kalshi is the only signal (whales at $38.9K STRONG tier back it) but no market odds and NHL paused — PASS.
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