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NHL
Utah Mammoth
Utah Mammoth
Mammoth
3 - 6
Final
Philadelphia Flyers
Flyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Full Game Analysis
NHL
Ω DDN SI PICK ALIGNED
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
MONEYLINE
Utah Mammoth Utah Mammoth None
"Utah Mammoth ML at -175: Bayesian posterior 67% vs 59.2% market = +7.8pp edge, flyers 3-8-4 with two key IRs — +$4.4 EV per $100"
EV / $100
+4.4
Win Prob
67%
Edge
+7.8%
Size
1.0u
SPREAD Philadelphia Flyers 1.5
62%
TOTAL over 6.5
58%
Full DDN SI Breakdown
DDN SI LINE DDN SI Independent Projection
Spread
2.0
Edge: +0.5
Total
6.0
Edge: -0.5
Win Prob
18.0%
ML
455 / -455

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Utah Mammoth

Philadelphia Flyers

Box Score + DDN SI Props

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 145 / -170 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 140 / -156 -
Sharp Action Best Line 1.5 (-180) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-185) ↓ - -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 6.0 (-112)
Market Consensus - - Over 6.0 (-104)
Value Line - - Over 6.5 (108)
De-Vigged Fair Value -174 / 174 148 / -148 O/U 102 / -102
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Utah Mammoth

K
Kailer Yamamoto
(RW) out — out
Out
J
John Marino
(D) Injured Reserve — ir
Injured Reserve
M
Maveric Lamoureux
(D) Injured Reserve — ir
Injured Reserve

Philadelphia Flyers

R
Rasmus Ristolainen
(D) Injured Reserve — Ristolainen (hand) was placed on injured reserve, retroactive to Oct. 24, on Tuesday.
Injured Reserve
N
Nikita Grebenkin
(RW) Injured Reserve — Grebenkin (back) underwent successful surgery and is expected to miss at least four months.
Injured Reserve
Box Score
FINAL
Utah Mammoth
Mammoth
3
-
Philadelphia Flyers
Flyers
6
Utah Mammoth None
65% conf
L

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Recorded picks and reasons

These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.

Moneyline: Utah Mammoth (-175) LOSS · Recorded 2026-11-01T16:21:03.382128 UTC

calibrated posterior 67.0% for Utah vs 59.2% devigged market is a +7.8pp edge, with Dixon-Coles (2.09-4.00) and MC (18.9% home win) both deeply favoring Utah

Spread: Philadelphia Flyers 1.5 (-180) WIN · Recorded 2026-11-01T01:37:41.274149 UTC

Home +1.5 cover posterior is 62.0% vs 61.4% devigged market — scoring model margin (-1.7 std 2.5) keeps one-goal games frequent enough to protect the +1.5

Total: over 6.5 (+112) WIN · Recorded 2026-11-01T12:04:58.586192 UTC

Market Consensus de-vigged fair total is 49.5% over, but Value Line offers +112 → +5.0% EV, the best-priced plus-money side on the board

Player Prop: over (-110) LOSS · Recorded 2026-11-01T08:31:14.150621 UTC

Team-leader in shots volume (16 points pace) and faces a Flyers blue line missing Ristolainen; model projection line, no bookmaker market provided — capped at 60 per unvalidated-roster rule.

Ω
DDN SI ANALYSIS

Utah Mammoth @ Philadelphia Flyers

+4.4 EV
per $100 wagered
Utah Mammoth 65% Sharp Lean
"Utah Mammoth ML at -175: Bayesian posterior 67% vs 59.2% market = +7.8pp edge, flyers 3-8-4 with two key IRs — +$4.4 EV per $100"
67% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 67%
Book Implied 59%
Edge +7.8%
Line Movement
Current Spread: PHI +1.5 (-180) / UTA -1.5 (+150); Total 6.5; ML PHI +145 / UTA -175
Movement No significant line movement detected
calibrated posterior for Utah ML (67.0%) exceeds the devigged market 59.2% by +7.8pp, yielding ~+$4.4 per $100 at -175
FULL ANALYSIS
Utah ML is the play: fusion posterior 67.0% vs 59.2% devigged market (+7.8pp), backed by Dixon-Coles (2.09-4.00) and 10K MC sims (18.9% home win). Philly is 3-8-4 with Ristolainen and Grebenkin on IR (-12.6% impact) while Sharp/Public moves (0.1%) and one $10K whale on home are noise. Spread edge is only 0.6pp — taken only as the lean side at +1.5. Over 6.5 at +112 vs Pinnacle fair 49.5% is the best price on the board (+5.0% EV) despite OMEGA's own 6.0 total leaning under.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge on ML is only 0.1% toward home with no RLM; spread sharp side 0.0% away; all signals weak. Whale $10.2K on home is single-wallet noise against a much stronger model consensus
Recommended Sizing
1.0u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

DDN SI Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Utah Mammoth None
+4.4 EV 65% 1.0u
SPREAD Philadelphia Flyers 1.5
+0.3 EV 62% 0.5u
TOTAL over 6.5
+5.0 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 65%
Utah Mammoth -175
  • calibrated posterior 67.0% for Utah vs 59.2% devigged market is a +7.8pp edge, with Dixon-Coles (2.09-4.00) and MC (18.9% home win) both deeply favoring Utah
SPREAD PICK
○ 62%
Philadelphia Flyers 1.5
  • Home +1.5 cover posterior is 62.0% vs 61.4% devigged market — scoring model margin (-1.7 std 2.5) keeps one-goal games frequent enough to protect the +1.5
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
OVER 6.5
  • Market Consensus de-vigged fair total is 49.5% over, but Value Line offers +112 → +5.0% EV, the best-priced plus-money side on the board
About This Analysis

DDN SI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
PASS — market and model agree exactly (57.6% vs 57.6%, 0.0pp edge) and NHL is calibration-paused after -13.9% ROI.
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