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MLB
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers
Houston Astros
Astros
Houston Astros
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +48.6% EV
62% Lean
62% Lean
SPREAD
Houston Astros Houston Astros 1.5
"Over 7.5: Bayesian fusion shows +15.2pp edge with no confirmed starters and bullpen injuries on both sides — model projects 22.5 total runs"
EV / $100
+48.6
Win Prob
65%
Edge
+15.2%
Size
1.0u
MONEYLINE Houston Astros None
60%
TOTAL over 7.5
65%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 21.4% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1825566 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (75% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 576 trades Kalshi: 130 trades Largest: $106907
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +193.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +15.0
Win Prob
35.1%
ML
185 / -185

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

Milwaukee Brewers

Houston Astros

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 159 / -194 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 165 / -185 -
Value Line - 145 / -182 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-275) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-108) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.5 (-105)
De-Vigged Fair Value -102 / 102 176 / -176 O/U 102 / -102
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Milwaukee Brewers

Q
Quinn Priester
(SP) 15-day IL — Priester (shoulder) recorded two outs and was charged with three earned runs on two hits and three walks Wednesday in his rehab start with Triple-A Nashville. He struck out one batter.
15-Day-IL
J
Jared Koenig
(RP) 15-day IL — Koenig (elbow) said his live bullpen session went well Tuesday and he expects to begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Nashville on Friday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
B
Brandon Woodruff
(SP) 15-day IL — The Brewers announced Tuesday that Woodruff (shoulder) is scheduled for a 60-pitch live batting practice session next week, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
L
Logan Henderson
(SP) 15-day IL — Brewers manager Pat Murphy said Monday that Henderson might not make his next scheduled start Wednesday against the Cardinals due to back tightness, Jack Stern of BrewerFanatic.com reports.
15-Day-IL
R
Rob Zastryzny
(RP) 60-day IL — Zastryzny (shoulder/ribs) will resume a rehab assignment with Triple-A Nashville on Wednesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brandon Lockridge
(LF) 10-day IL — Lockridge is expected to be sidelined until mid-to-late June after an MRI on his right knee showed a bone bruise, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
10-Day-IL
G
Gerson Garabito
(RP) day-to-day — Garabito will be out for four months after undergoing surgery to address a broken bone in his foot, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Day-To-Day
A
Angel Zerpa
(RP) 15-day IL — Zerpa will undergo UCL reconstruction on his left elbow next week, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
15-Day-IL

Houston Astros

B
Braden Shewmake
(SS) day-to-day — Shewmake was removed from Saturday's game against the Brewers with right groin soreness.
Day-To-Day
J
Jose Altuve
(2B) 10-day IL — Altuve (oblique) took BP, ran the bases and fielded grounders Saturday, and he's slated to face live pitching in the coming days, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Cristian Javier
(SP) 60-day IL — The next step in Javier's (shoulder) throwing progression will be a minor-league rehab start, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
H
Hayden Wesneski
(SP) 60-day IL — Wesneski (elbow) has progressed to throwing live batting practice this week, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Ronel Blanco
(SP) 60-day IL — Blanco (elbow) has progressed to throwing live batting practice this week, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Josh Hader
(RP) 60-day IL — Hader (biceps) will pitch for Triple-A Sugar Land on Wednesday and Thursday, which should represent his final steps before he's activated from the 60-day injured list, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
H
Hunter Brown
(SP) 60-day IL — Brown (shoulder) will make his next rehab start this weekend at Triple-A Sugar Land, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Joey Loperfido
(LF) 10-day IL — Astros manager Joe Espada told reporters Monday that Loperfido (quadriceps) will pause his rehab assignment until Wednesday after fouling a ball off his foot during Sunday's game with Double-A Corpus Christie, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
Y
Yainer Diaz
(C) 10-day IL — Astros general manager Dana Brown said Sunday that Diaz (oblique) is expected to begin a rehab assignment during the first week of June, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
L
Lance McCullers Jr.
(SP) 15-day IL — McCullers was scratched from his scheduled start against the Twins on Tuesday due to shoulder inflammation, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Carlos Correa
(SS) 10-day IL — Correa is scheduled to undergo surgery Monday in Houston to repair the tendon in his left ankle, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
B
Bennett Sousa
(RP) 15-day IL — The Astros placed Sousa on the 15-day injured list Saturday with left elbow inflammation, retroactive to Wednesday, Julia Morales of Space City Home Network reports.
15-Day-IL
B
Brandon Walter
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros placed Walter (elbow) on the 60-day injured list.
60-Day-IL
W
Walker Janek
(C) day-to-day — Double-A Corpus Christi placed Janek on its 7-day injured list Sunday due to an unspecified injury.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
Milwaukee Brewers @ Houston Astros
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-275)
Total Over 7.5
Key Injuries
Quinn Priester 15-Day-IL
Jared Koenig 15-Day-IL
Braden Shewmake Day-To-Day
Jose Altuve 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Milwaukee Brewers @ Houston Astros

+48.6 EV
per $100 wagered
Houston Astros 62% Lean
"Over 7.5: Bayesian fusion shows +15.2pp edge with no confirmed starters and bullpen injuries on both sides — model projects 22.5 total runs"
65% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 65%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +15.2%
Line Movement
Current MIL -193 / HOU +158, Total 7.5
Movement No significant movement detected
No situational flags detected
The calibrated posterior shows a massive +15.2pp edge on the over. The market total of 7.5 is wildly disconnected from the scoring model/team strength projection of 22.5. Even accounting for the degraded data quality, this is a clear overvaluation of pitching in a game with no confirmed starters and multiple bullpen injuries.
FULL ANALYSIS
The market total of 7.5 is wildly disconnected from the Poisson/ELO projection of 22.5, creating a massive +15.2pp edge on the over. With no confirmed starting pitchers and multiple bullpen injuries on both sides (Hader, Sousa, Loperfido for Houston; Zastryzny, Koenig, Woodruff for Milwaukee), scoring should be significantly higher than the market expects. Sharp money favors the Astros on the spread (+21.4% edge), but whale volume ($1.8M) is on the Brewers — a rare conflict that reduces confidence in the side bets. The over is the cleanest play here, backed by both the Bayesian fusion and the OMEGA independent line.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge on spread is 21.4% favoring away (Houston), with a strong signal. Pinnacle fair value on the spread is near 50/50, but retail books have Milwaukee as heavy favorites — sharp money is fading that line.
Recommended Sizing
1.0u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Houston Astros 1.5
+48.6 EV 62% 1.0u
MONEYLINE Houston Astros None
+4.1 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL over 7.5
+30.4 EV 65% 1.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 60%
Houston Astros 158
  • Bayesian fusion posterior shows 40.6% win probability for Astros vs market 38.8% — a +1.8pp edge; sharp money also favors away side
SPREAD PICK
○ 62%
Houston Astros 1.5
  • +EV analysis shows +48.6% EV on Astros spread at Bovada (+200) vs Pinnacle fair value of 49.5%
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 65%
OVER 7.5
  • Bayesian fusion posterior shows 65.2% over probability vs market 50.0% — a +15.2pp edge; OMEGA model projects 22.5 total, far above market 7.5
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Brewers +118: stale Kambi price vs whale consensus = +7.1 EV per $100; 31 profitable wallets backing Milwaukee with $320K volume
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