English Premier League
AFC Bournemouth
Bournemout
Fulham
Fulham
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGAAFC Bournemouth
Fulham
Betting Odds Comparison
| Source | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Consensus | - | 172 / 157 ↑ | - |
| Market Consensus | 0.0 (102) | - | - |
| Market Consensus | - | - | Over 3.0 (104) |
| De-Vigged Fair Value | 106 / -106 | 104 / -104 | O/U 109 / -109 |
Line Movement
Open
Current
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
AFC Bournemouth @ Fulham
+-4.9 EV
per $100 wagered
AFC Bournemouth
56%
Lean
"Bournemouth ML -155 +2.5 EV (62% model vs 61% breakeven); fade juiced -0.5 spread"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
62%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+12.3%
Line Movement
Current
Bournemouth -0.5 (-190)/Fulham +0.5 (+135); ML Bournemouth -155/Fulham +165; Total 2.5 (-110)
Movement
No significant movement
Slight +EV on Bournemouth ML -155; spread negative EV due to -190 juice
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion posterior gives Bournemouth 62.3% DNB win prob vs -155 implied 60.8% for +2.5 EV on ML, but spread -190 too juiced (-4.9 EV). Pinnacle fair value favors under 2.5 at 51.8% with no pace/over factors in mild 64F weather. Poor data quality caps all edges marginal; moneylines profitable in Lean tier historically.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
60%
AFC Bournemouth -155
- Bayesian posterior 62.3% win prob exceeds -155 implied 60.8% for +2.5 EV
SPREAD PICK
○
56%
AFC Bournemouth -0.5
- Posterior cover prob 62.3% but -190 requires 65.5% breakeven
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
55%
UNDER 2.5
- +EV analysis shows under fair value 51.8% vs market ~50%
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Bournemouth -0.5 +125 w/ 63.6% posterior vs 44% implied = +43 EV; rain under 3.5
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