Vegas Golden Knights @ Detroit Red Wings

NHL

Vegas Golden Knights

Knights

Detroit Red Wings

Wings

Full Game Analysis

NHL

Ω DDN SI PICK +3.2% EV

54% Lean

MONEYLINE

Vegas Golden Knights None

"No ML edge at -142 (54.5% vs 58.7% breakeven) — the only value is under 5.5 at +117 vs 51.3% Pinnacle fair, powered by Detroit missing Larkin/Kasper/Appleton"

Win Prob

54%

Edge

-4.2%

SPREAD Vegas Golden Knights -1.5

54%

TOTAL under 5.5

55%

Full DDN SI Breakdown

Sharp Money Signal

Sharp money favors away side. 1.4% divergence on spread with moderate signal.

Sharp: away Boost: +1

Whale Activity Detected

$5857 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.

Whales: away Polymarket: 4 trades Kalshi: 15 trades Largest: $2030

Player Props Engine

Vegas Golden Knights

Detroit Red Wings

Betting Odds Comparison

Source	Spread	Moneyline	Total
Sharp Action Best Line	-	127 / -147 ↑	-
Market Consensus	-	128 / -145	-
Value Line	-	117 / -139	-
Sharp Action Best Line	1.5 (-210)	-	-
Market Consensus	1.5 (-208) ↓	-	-
Value Line	1.5 (-235) ↓	-	-
Sharp Action Best Line	-	-	Over 6.0 (-108)
Market Consensus	-	-	Over 6.0 (-102)
Value Line	-	-	Over 6.5 (112)
De-Vigged Fair Value	-194 / 194	137 / -137	O/U 105 / -105

Line Movement

Open Current

Injury Report

Vegas Golden Knights

Parker Wotherspoon

(D) Injured Reserve — ir

Injured Reserve

Detroit Red Wings

Albert Johansson

(D) Injured Reserve — The Red Wings placed Johansson (undisclosed) on injured reserve Wednesday, retroactive to Oct. 24.

Injured Reserve

John Gibson

(G) day-to-day — day-to-day

Day-To-Day

Dylan Larkin

Injured Reserve

Mason Appleton

(C) Injured Reserve — Head coach Todd McLellan said Friday that Appleton (undisclosed) is still 10 days to two weeks away from returning to game action, Ansar Khan of MLive.com reports.

Injured Reserve

Marco Kasper

(C) Injured Reserve — Head coach Todd McLellan said Friday that Kasper (upper body) is still 10 days to two weeks away from returning to game action, Ansar Khan of MLive.com reports.

Injured Reserve

Simon Edvinsson

(D) Injured Reserve — Edvinsson (contract dispute) is on the Red Wings' injured, non-roster list, per the NHL media site Wednesday.

Injured Reserve

Game Preview

until puck drop

Current Line

Spread 1.5 (-210)

Total Over 6.0

Key Injuries

Parker Wotherspoon Injured Reserve

Albert Johansson Injured Reserve

John Gibson Day-To-Day

Analysis starts at puck drop

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Recorded picks and reasons

These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.

Moneyline: Vegas Golden Knights (-142) PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-04T00:07:27.456993 UTC

Market Consensus fair value (57.8% away) and Kalshi (56.5%) both exceed our 54.5% posterior — the -142 price already contains the edge, so there is nothing to bet

Spread: Vegas Golden Knights -1.5 (+180) PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-04T21:06:43.052763 UTC

Puck-line posterior is only 34.1% vs 35.7% breakeven at +180 — a marginal negative-EV spot despite the away-side sharp lean

Player Prop: over (-110) PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-04T08:06:29.479793 UTC

16 points as Vegas's primary playmaker against a Detroit defense missing Albert Johansson; thin evidence (no last-10 data), LEAN tier only

DDN SI ANALYSIS

Vegas Golden Knights @ Detroit Red Wings

Vegas Golden Knights 54% Lean

Untested not on slate

"No ML edge at -142 (54.5% vs 58.7% breakeven) — the only value is under 5.5 at +117 vs 51.3% Pinnacle fair, powered by Detroit missing Larkin/Kasper/Appleton"

EV Breakdown

Model Prob 54%

Book Implied 59%

Edge -4.2%

Line Movement

Current ML DET +120 / VGK -142 | Puck line DET +1.5 (-218) / VGK -1.5 (+180) | Total 5.5 (over -127 / under +117)

Movement No significant line movement detected

Detroit missing Dylan Larkin, Marco Kasper, Mason Appleton (IR) — -25% injury impact, CRITICAL quality Detroit G John Gibson day-to-day Vegas only missing Parker Wotherspoon (POOR quality, -6.3%) Net injury advantage: away +18.7% Data quality DEGRADED (67%) — 16/24 signals, Monte Carlo/Poisson/ELO failed NHL model PAUSED — ROI -13.9% over 21 picks, CLV beat 25%; confidence suppressed

calibrated shows zero edge vs market on the ML (posterior 54.5% = market 54.5%). At -142 the breakeven is 58.7% — our 54.5% posterior is well short. No positive EV on the moneyline; the only modeled +EV cell is the total under vs Market Consensus fair value

FULL ANALYSIS

This is a no-bet moneyline: Bayesian posterior (54.5% Vegas) exactly matches market, and -142 needs 58.7% — the sharp lean (+1.2% Pinnacle toward away) and $5.9K whale flow confirm direction the price already paid for. Detroit is down Larkin, Kasper and Appleton (CRITICAL, -25% impact) which crushes Wings scoring and supports 5.5 under — Pinnacle fair value 51.3% under vs 46.1% implied at +117 is the only spot with a real price gap. Keep it at 0.5u LEAN; sharp book shows a weak over lean and NHL props are 20.5% over the past week, so nothing else clears the bar.

SHARP MONEY

Pinnacle vs retail divergence: +1.2% sharp edge on ML toward away, +1.4% on spread toward away, both moderate signal, no RLM. Prediction markets (Kalshi 56.5% away) confirm. Whale flow: 4 profitable wallets, $5,857 volume (MODERATE tier, +2 conf) 68% on away

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE

MONEYLINE Vegas Golden Knights None

54%

SPREAD Vegas Golden Knights -1.5

-0.4 EV 54%

TOTAL under 5.5

+6.0 EV 55% 0.5u

MONEYLINE PICK

○ 54%

Vegas Golden Knights -142

Market Consensus fair value (57.8% away) and Kalshi (56.5%) both exceed our 54.5% posterior — the -142 price already contains the edge, so there is nothing to bet

SPREAD PICK

○ 54%

Vegas Golden Knights -1.5

Puck-line posterior is only 34.1% vs 35.7% breakeven at +180 — a marginal negative-EV spot despite the away-side sharp lean

TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)

○ 55%

UNDER 5.5

Market Consensus de-vigged fair value is under 51.3% while +117 implies only 46.1% — roughly +5pp of price-vs-fair gap, the single largest modeled edge in this game

About This Analysis

DDN SI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary

Vegas-by-injury ASP lean (Detroit -25% vs -6.3%) gives only +0.6pp edge at 57.6% posterior — no price, no bet, 0u

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