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MLB
Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles
Orioles
New York Yankees
Yankees
New York Yankees
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +48.1% EV EARLY VALUE
56% Lean
56% Lean
SPREAD
Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 2.2
"Orioles +2.2 (56% cover +6pp edge, omega even) + Over 8.5 (65% +15pp, model totals 22.5 >> market)"
EV / $100
+7.2
Win Prob
56%
Edge
+6.3%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE New York Yankees None
62%
TOTAL over 8.5
65%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 14.8% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1386847 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (73% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 527 trades Kalshi: 545 trades Largest: $34132
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +2.2
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.0
Win Prob
44.0%
ML
127 / -127

Player Props Engine

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Baltimore Orioles

New York Yankees

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -157 / 131 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -150 / 135 -
Value Line - -162 / 128 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (265) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (137) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.5 (-111)
De-Vigged Fair Value 146 / -146 -143 / 143 O/U -104 / 104
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Baltimore Orioles

R
Ryan Helsley
(RP) 15-day IL — Imaging on Helsley's right elbow came back negative Friday, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jackson Holliday
(2B) 10-day IL — Holliday (hand) expects to resume his rehab assignment next week, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
10-Day-IL
T
Trevor Rogers
(SP) 15-day IL — Orioles manager Craig Albernaz said Friday that he expects Rogers (illness) to return from the 15-day injured list when first eligible, Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun reports.
15-Day-IL
H
Hans Crouse
(RP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
W
Will Robertson
(LF) day-to-day — The Orioles reassigned Robertson to minor-league camp Wednesday, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Ryan Noda
(1B) day-to-day — The Orioles reassigned Noda to Triple-A Norfolk on Wednesday, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.
Day-To-Day
D
Dean Kremer
(SP) 15-day IL — Kremer (quadriceps) is expected to miss several weeks, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
15-Day-IL
Y
Yaramil Hiraldo
(RP) 60-day IL — Hiraldo is scheduled to meet with Dr. Neal ElAttrache on Monday to receive a second opinion on his inflamed right shoulder, Andy Kostka of TheBanner.com reports.
60-Day-IL
H
Heston Kjerstad
(LF) 10-day IL — Kjerstad (hamstring) is running and participating in baseball activities, per MLB.com.
10-Day-IL
R
Ryan Mountcastle
(1B) 60-day IL — The Orioles placed Mountcastle (foot) on the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
Z
Zach Eflin
(SP) 60-day IL — Eflin underwent Tommy John surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jordan Westburg
(3B) 60-day IL — Westburg (elbow) will begin a throwing progression this week, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Richard Guasch
(SP) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
L
Luis Vazquez
(SS) day-to-day — Orioles manager Craig Albernaz said Monday that Vazquez has been diagnosed with a broken right thumb, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.
Day-To-Day
K
Keagan Gillies
(P) day-to-day — Gillies will be sidelined for at least six weeks with a quad injury, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
Day-To-Day
F
Felix Bautista
(RP) 60-day IL — Bautista (shoulder) threw a baseball Tuesday for the first time since undergoing surgery last August, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Colin Selby
(RP) 60-day IL — The Orioles placed Selby on the 60-day injured list Saturday with right shoulder inflammation, Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com reports.
60-Day-IL

New York Yankees

C
Carlos Rodon
(SP) 15-day IL — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Friday that Rodon's (elbow) next rehab start Tuesday with Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre could be his last, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
15-Day-IL
G
Giancarlo Stanton
(DH) 10-day IL — Stanton (calf) has not been cleared to resume running, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
10-Day-IL
A
Anthony Volpe
(SS) 10-day IL — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Friday that Volpe (shoulder) will remain on his rehab assignment at Double-A Somerset through this weekend, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
10-Day-IL
G
Gerrit Cole
(SP) 15-day IL — Cole (elbow) struck out three and allowed allowed three earned runs on three hits and zero walks across 5.2 innings Wednesday in his rehab start with Double-A Somerset.
15-Day-IL
A
Angel Chivilli
(RP) 15-day IL — Manager Aaron Boone said Tuesday that Chivilli (shoulder) will be shut down from throwing for roughly three weeks, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
B
Ben Hess
(SP) day-to-day — Double-A Somerset placed Hess on its 7-day injured list April 18 due to an unspecified injury.
Day-To-Day
C
Clarke Schmidt
(SP) 60-day IL — Schmidt (elbow) threw a bullpen session Friday, Pete Caldera of The Bergen Record reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Travis MacGregor
(SP) day-to-day — MacGregor signed a minor-league contract with the Angels on Monday.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (265)
Total Over 8.5
Key Injuries
Ryan Helsley 15-Day-IL
Jackson Holliday 10-Day-IL
Carlos Rodon 15-Day-IL
Giancarlo Stanton 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees

+7.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Baltimore Orioles 56% Lean
"Orioles +2.2 (56% cover +6pp edge, omega even) + Over 8.5 (65% +15pp, model totals 22.5 >> market)"
56% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 56%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +6.3%
Line Movement
Current Yankees -2.2 / Orioles +2.2 | O/U 8.5 | Yankees -185 / Orioles +153
Movement No significant movement
Net injury advantage Yankees +1.9%
+EV on Orioles spread cover; ML neutral/slight neg, total strongly +EV
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega even spread vs market Yankees -2.2 with MC projecting Orioles 48.6% win (-0.4 margin), 56% cover posterior +6.3pp edge despite extreme $600K whales on NYY. Total crushed: 65% over 8.5 posterior vs omega/MC ~20-22.5 totals (+15pp). Injuries net +1.9% home but no pitchers/weather limits; sharp spread home divergence conflicts whales.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Baltimore Orioles 2.2
+7.2 EV 56% 0.5u
MONEYLINE New York Yankees None
-0.8 EV 62%
TOTAL over 8.5
+24.5 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 62%
New York Yankees -185
  • Posterior 64.4% home win vs implied 64.9% (-0.5pp); below 5% breakeven threshold
SPREAD PICK
○ 56%
Baltimore Orioles 2.2
  • Posterior 56.3% Orioles cover +2.2 vs market 50% (+6.3pp edge); omega spread 0.0 vs market -2.2
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 65%
OVER 8.5
  • Posterior 65.2% over 8.5 vs market 50% (+15.2pp); omega total 22.5 vs market 8.5
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Yankees spread +15.4% sharp edge + $563k extreme whales + injury net +1.9%, 4.1 EV on -2.2
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