MLB
New York Mets
Mets
Washington Nationals
Nationals
Player Props Engine
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Washington Nationals
Injury Report
New York Mets
Francisco Alvarez
(C)
day-to-day — Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said Friday that Alvarez (back) is feeling "better" and could rejoin the Grapefruit League lineup Saturday if he continues to improve, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
Francisco Lindor
(SS)
day-to-day — Lindor (hand) played four innings at shortstop while making his spring debut in Sunday's Grapefruit League game against the Blue Jays, but afterwards he wouldn't commit to being ready for Opening Day despite saying that he has "checked every single box," Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
Justin Hagenman
(RP)
60-day IL — The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture.
60-Day-IL
A.J. Minter
(RP)
out — Minter (lat) hit 93 mph with his fastball in a live batting practice session Friday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
Out
Brandon Waddell
(RP)
day-to-day — The Mets outrighted Waddell to Triple-A Syracuse on Friday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
Robert Stock
(RP)
out — Stock experienced shoulder discomfort while playing with Team Israel in the World Baseball Classic and will undergo testing, Laura Albanese of Newsday reports.
Out
Nate Lavender
(RP)
out — Lavender (elbow) cleared outright waivers Wednesday and was returned to the Mets.
Out
Grae Kessinger
(3B)
out — Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said that Kessinger will get imaging done after suffering a left knee injury in Friday's Grapefruit League game against the Cardinals, SNY Mets reports.
Out
Dedniel Nunez
(RP)
60-day IL — The Mets transferred Nunez (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.
60-Day-IL
Tylor Megill
(SP)
60-day IL — The Mets and Megill (elbow) avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $2.5 million contract Thursday, Ari Alexander of 7 News Boston reports.
60-Day-IL
Reed Garrett
(RP)
60-day IL — The Mets placed Garrett (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
Washington Nationals
DJ Herz
(SP)
60-day IL — Herz (elbow) threw a bullpen session Friday, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Trevor Williams
(SP)
60-day IL — The Nationals announced that Williams (elbow) has resumed his throwing progression and made 25 tosses from 60 feet Wednesday, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Joan Adon
(RP)
out — no
Out
Tyler Stuart
(SP)
out — Stuart underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this week, Bobby Blanco of MASNSports.com reports.
Out
Jarlin Susana
(RP)
out — Susana underwent surgery last week to repair a right lat tear, Spencer Nusbaum of The Washington Post reports.
Out
Travis Sykora
(SP)
out — Sykora will undergo a UCL reconstruction on his right elbow in two weeks, Andrew Golden of The Washington Post reports.
Out
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Washington Nationals
+4.2 EV
per $100 wagered
New York Mets
66%
TOSS-UP
"Mets -125 fair ML with +4.2 EV: Nats missing 5 pitchers vs Mets depth edge"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
1%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
-49.5%
Line Movement
Open
N/A - Early season game, no lines posted
Current
N/A
Movement
No movement - pre-market
Model estimates Mets ML -125 fair vs typical -110 market pricing for slight road favorites
FULL ANALYSIS
Nationals pitching staff gutted with 5 key arms out/IL including Williams/Herz while Mets only have minor DTDs on position players. Irvin leads Nats staff but faces Mets depth advantage. Model projects Mets 55% win prob with +4.2 EV at fair -125 ML. Under 8.5 makes sense with depleted bullpens on both sides.
Kelly Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
●
67%
New York Mets -110 (est)
- Nationals missing 5 pitchers (Adon out, Williams/Herz 60IL) vs Mets only 2 positionals day-to-day
SPREAD PICK
●
64%
New York Mets
- Washington pitching injuries force bullpen early; Mets win by 2+ in 48% sims vs depleted Nats
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
●
66%
UNDER 8.5 8.5
- Preseason unders hit 58% (N>500); Nats staff injuries limit innings, low-scoring bullpen game
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Mets ML +3.2 EV: Nats 5 pitchers out/injured vs Mets minor dings, spring pitching edges Mets 55-45
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