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MLB
St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +48.1% EV
62% Lean
62% Lean
SPREAD
St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 1.5
"STL +1.5 (Omega 0.0 edge 163pts) + ML +3.8pp Bayesian/whale extreme + O8 +15.2pp (model total 22.5)"
EV / $100
+5.5
Win Prob
42%
Edge
-8.2%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE St. Louis Cardinals None
60%
TOTAL over 8.0
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 14.8% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$255114 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: away Polymarket: 142 trades Kalshi: 78 trades Largest: $11880
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +163.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.5
Win Prob
39.7%
ML
152 / -152

Player Props Engine

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St. Louis Cardinals

Pittsburgh Pirates

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -160 / 134 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -153 / 138 -
Value Line - -159 / 128 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (265) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (137) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.0 (-114)
De-Vigged Fair Value 146 / -146 -146 / 146 O/U -106 / 106
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

St. Louis Cardinals

H
Hunter Dobbins
(SP) 15-day IL — Dobbins (knee) is expected to be activated from the 15-day injured list to start Thursday in Pittsburgh, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports.
15-Day-IL
M
Matt Pushard
(RP) 15-day IL — Pushard (knee) will head to Triple-A Memphis on Tuesday to begin a rehab assignment, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports.
15-Day-IL
P
Packy Naughton
(RP) day-to-day — Imaging revealed damage to the UCL in Naughton's left elbow Saturday, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports.
Day-To-Day
I
Ixan Henderson
(SP) day-to-day — Henderson (elbow) is starting the season on the 60-day injured list at Triple-A Memphis.
Day-To-Day
L
Lars Nootbaar
(LF) 60-day IL — Cardinals president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom said Monday that Nootbaar (heels) will be evaluated this week for potential placement on the 60-day injured list, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
60-Day-IL
V
Victor Santos
(RP) day-to-day — Santos (elbow) has compiled a 3.97 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 26:7 K:BB across 34 innings over his first nine outings (seven starts) in the Dominican Winter League.
Day-To-Day
S
Sem Robberse
(SP) day-to-day — Robberse (elbow) signed a minor-league contract with the Cardinals on Monday, which includes an invitation to spring training, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
Day-To-Day
Z
Zack Thompson
(RP) day-to-day — The Cardinals reassigned Thompson (shoulder) to minor-league camp Monday.
Day-To-Day

Pittsburgh Pirates

O
Oneil Cruz
(CF) day-to-day — Cruz was scratched from the Pirates' starting lineup against the Cardinals on Monday due to an illness.
Day-To-Day
B
Braxton Ashcraft
(SP) Bereavement — The Pirates placed Ashcraft (personal) on the bereavement/family medical emergency list Saturday.
Bereavement
J
Jared Triolo
(SS) 10-day IL — Triolo (knee) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A Bradenton on Friday, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
10-Day-IL
S
Sean Sullivan
(SP) day-to-day — Sullivan owns a 5.87 ERA, 1.57 WHIP and 11:5 K:BB in 7.2 innings over his three appearances since being promoted to Triple-A Indianapolis on June 10.
Day-To-Day
D
Dominic Fletcher
(RF) day-to-day — The Pirates reassigned Fletcher to minor-league camp Monday.
Day-To-Day
A
Anthony Solometo
(SP) day-to-day — Solometo is sidelined at Double-A Altoona with recurring left shoulder discomfort, Jose Negron of DK Pittsburgh Sports reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Mike Clevinger
(RP) day-to-day — Clevinger is expected to be sidelined for around six weeks after being diagnosed with an MCL sprain in his right knee, Jason Mackey of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jared Jones
(SP) 60-day IL — Jones (elbow) threw a live batting practice session Wednesday, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
O
Oddanier Mosqueda
(RP) day-to-day — Mosqueda will not throw for a couple weeks due to left forearm inflammation, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (265)
Total Over 8.0
Key Injuries
Hunter Dobbins 15-Day-IL
Matt Pushard 15-Day-IL
Oneil Cruz Day-To-Day
Braxton Ashcraft Bereavement
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates

+5.5 EV
per $100 wagered
St. Louis Cardinals 62% Lean
"STL +1.5 (Omega 0.0 edge 163pts) + ML +3.8pp Bayesian/whale extreme + O8 +15.2pp (model total 22.5)"
42% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 42%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -8.2%
Line Movement
Current PIT -1.5 -163 / STL +1.5 +137 / Total 8.0 -110
Movement No significant line movement detected
Positive EV on STL ML vs de-vigged market prior (41.8% posterior vs 38.0% implied)
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega line sees dead even spread (0.0) and blowout total (22.5 vs market 8.0) with MC confirming 9.7-9.8 score and 46.1% STL win prob. Bayesian fuses to +3.8pp STL ML edge vs de-vig prior, supercharged by extreme $255k whale volume on STL despite sharp spread home divergence. Injuries net even (-9.7% PIT vs -8.7% STL), no pitchers/rest flags limit situational boost.
SHARP MONEY
Extreme whale volume $255k (institutional tier) on STL at 61% consensus; aligns with weak sharp ML away despite strong sharp spread home signal
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD St. Louis Cardinals 1.5
+5.5 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE St. Louis Cardinals None
+4.5 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL over 8.0
+13.8 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 60%
St. Louis Cardinals 135
  • Bayesian posterior 41.8% STL win vs market 38.0% (+3.8pp edge)
SPREAD PICK
○ 62%
St. Louis Cardinals 1.5
  • Omega independent spread 0.0 and MC 10k sims margin -0.0 (away covers 46.1% at even) vs market PIT -1.5
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 8.0
  • Bayesian over posterior 65.2% vs market 50.0% (+15.2pp); Omega total 22.5 vs 8.0
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
MC under 71.6% on 24.0 (+28 EV) vs proj 21 runs; Pirates +155 (56.7% posterior, +23 EV)
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