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MLB
New York Yankees
New York Yankees
Yankees
Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +51.5% EV LATE TO MARKET
56% Lean
56% Lean
SPREAD
Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 2.2
"Brewers +2.2 (56% posterior +7.5 EV) as Omega even vs market overvalue; over 7.5 +24 EV total mismatch"
EV / $100
+7.5
Win Prob
56%
Edge
+6.3%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE New York Yankees None
56%
TOTAL over 7.5
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 19.1% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1075497 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 450 trades Kalshi: 102 trades Largest: $50000
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: -2.2
Total
22.5
Edge: +15.0
Win Prob
33.9%
ML
195 / -195

Player Props Engine

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New York Yankees

Milwaukee Brewers

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 104 / -124 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 110 / -121 -
Value Line - 102 / -125 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-400) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-156) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.0 (-109)
De-Vigged Fair Value -147 / 147 116 / -116 O/U -102 / 102
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

New York Yankees

G
Gerrit Cole
(SP) 15-day IL — Cole (elbow) will make his next rehab start with Double-A Somerset Sunday, Casey Drottar of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jasson Dominguez
(LF) 10-day IL — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Thursday that Dominguez will miss "a few weeks" after an MRI revealed a low-grade AC joint sprain in his left shoulder, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
A
Angel Chivilli
(RP) 15-day IL — Manager Aaron Boone said Tuesday that Chivilli (shoulder) will be shut down from throwing for roughly three weeks, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Clarke Schmidt
(SP) 60-day IL — Schmidt (elbow) threw a bullpen session Friday, Pete Caldera of The Bergen Record reports.
60-Day-IL
G
Giancarlo Stanton
(DH) 10-day IL — Stanton (calf) has not been cleared to resume running, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
10-Day-IL
T
Travis MacGregor
(SP) day-to-day — MacGregor underwent Tommy John surgery last September and will miss the entire 2019 season, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Ryan Weathers
(SP) day-to-day — The Yankees placed Weathers on the paternity list Wednesday.
Day-To-Day
B
Ben Hess
(SP) day-to-day — Double-A Somerset placed Hess on its 7-day injured list April 18 due to an unspecified injury.
Day-To-Day
C
Carlos Rodon
(SP) 15-day IL — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Wednesday that Rodon (elbow) is likely on track to return from the 15-day injured list to make his season debut Sunday in Milwaukee, Jorge Castillo of ESPN.com reports.
15-Day-IL

Milwaukee Brewers

B
Brandon Lockridge
(LF) 10-day IL — Lockridge is expected to get an MRI on his injured right knee once swelling subsides, Jack Stern of BrewerFanatic.com reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jared Koenig
(RP) 15-day IL — Koenig (elbow) is slated to resume a throwing program Tuesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
G
Gerson Garabito
(RP) day-to-day — Garabito will be out for four months after undergoing surgery to address a broken bone in his foot, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Day-To-Day
B
Brandon Woodruff
(SP) 15-day IL — Woodruff is tentatively slated to resume throwing Saturday after undergoing a minor procedure Tuesday to drain fluid from his inflamed right shoulder, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Christian Yelich
(LF) 10-day IL — Yelich (groin) is expected to progress to facing live pitching and running the bases early next week, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
Q
Quinn Priester
(SP) 15-day IL — Priester (wrist) is with the Brewers in St. Louis after being pulled from his rehab assignment due to shoulder soreness, Sophia Minnaert of Brewers.tv reports.
15-Day-IL
J
J.B. Bukauskas
(RP) day-to-day — Bukauskas will undergo surgery on his injured right lat and be sidelined for 9-to-10 months, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Day-To-Day
A
Akil Baddoo
(LF) 60-day IL — The Brewers placed Baddoo (quadriceps) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Rob Zastryzny
(RP) 60-day IL — The Brewers transferred Zastryzny (shoulder/ribs) to the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Angel Zerpa
(RP) 15-day IL — Zerpa will undergo UCL reconstruction on his left elbow next week, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
15-Day-IL
Game Preview
New York Yankees @ Milwaukee Brewers
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-400)
Total Over 8.0
Key Injuries
Gerrit Cole 15-Day-IL
Jasson Dominguez 10-Day-IL
Brandon Lockridge 10-Day-IL
Jared Koenig 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

New York Yankees @ Milwaukee Brewers

+7.5 EV
per $100 wagered
Milwaukee Brewers 56% Lean
"Brewers +2.2 (56% posterior +7.5 EV) as Omega even vs market overvalue; over 7.5 +24 EV total mismatch"
56% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 56%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +6.3%
Line Movement
Current Yankees -2.2 / Brewers +2.2 | O/U 7.5 | Yankees -130 / Brewers +110
Movement No significant movement detected
+6.3pp edge on Brewers +2.2 cover posterior vs 50% market
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion posterior shows Brewers +2.2 covering at 56.3% (+6.3pp edge) with Omega even line at 0.0 vs market -2.2 Yankees shade. Total market 7.5 crushed by Omega 22.5/MC 20.4 projection (65% over posterior, +24 EV) but totals 47% historical WR caps sizing. Mixed sharp/whale on Yankees but contradicting spread signal and data gaps limit to leans.
SHARP MONEY
19.7% sharp edge on spread favoring Yankees cover, weak 0.9% ML edge away; strong spread divergence
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Milwaukee Brewers 2.2
+7.5 EV 56% 0.5u
MONEYLINE New York Yankees None
-0.9 EV 56%
TOTAL over 7.5
+24.4 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 56%
New York Yankees -130
  • Posterior 56.0% Yankees win vs devigged market ~54.3% (+1.7pp); whale extreme volume $316k on away
SPREAD PICK
○ 56%
Milwaukee Brewers 2.2
  • Bayesian posterior 56.3% Brewers cover +2.2 vs market 50% (+6.3pp); Omega line even spread 0.0 vs market -2.2
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 7.5
  • Over posterior 65.2% vs market 50% (+15.2pp); Omega total 22.5 and MC ~20.4 vs market 7.5
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Yankees -2.2: 19.2% sharp edge + $301k extreme whales (78%) vs Pinnacle shade
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