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MLB
St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +49.5% EV EARLY VALUE
56% Lean
56% Lean
SPREAD
St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 2.2
"Cardinals +2.2 (56% posterior +7.5 EV): Omega 0.0 spread + MC -0.4 margin vs juiced market; over 8.5 +15pp explosion"
EV / $100
+7.5
Win Prob
47%
Edge
-2.8%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE St. Louis Cardinals None
47%
TOTAL over 8.5
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 17.1% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1208002 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (78% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 369 trades Kalshi: 148 trades Largest: $129610
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +2.2
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.0
Win Prob
35.7%
ML
180 / -180

Player Props Engine

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St. Louis Cardinals

Pittsburgh Pirates

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -225 / 185 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -214 / 190 -
Value Line - -240 / 185 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (220) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (107) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.0 (-122)
De-Vigged Fair Value 114 / -114 -203 / 203 O/U -114 / 114
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

St. Louis Cardinals

H
Hunter Dobbins
(SP) 15-day IL — Dobbins (knee) is expected to be activated from the 15-day injured list to start Thursday in Pittsburgh, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports.
15-Day-IL
M
Matt Pushard
(RP) 15-day IL — Pushard (knee) will head to Triple-A Memphis on Tuesday to begin a rehab assignment, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports.
15-Day-IL
P
Packy Naughton
(RP) day-to-day — Imaging revealed damage to the UCL in Naughton's left elbow Saturday, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports.
Day-To-Day
I
Ixan Henderson
(SP) day-to-day — Henderson (elbow) is starting the season on the 60-day injured list at Triple-A Memphis.
Day-To-Day
L
Lars Nootbaar
(LF) 60-day IL — Cardinals president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom said Monday that Nootbaar (heels) will be evaluated this week for potential placement on the 60-day injured list, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
60-Day-IL
V
Victor Santos
(RP) day-to-day — Santos (elbow) has compiled a 3.97 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 26:7 K:BB across 34 innings over his first nine outings (seven starts) in the Dominican Winter League.
Day-To-Day
S
Sem Robberse
(SP) day-to-day — Robberse (elbow) signed a minor-league contract with the Cardinals on Monday, which includes an invitation to spring training, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
Day-To-Day
Z
Zack Thompson
(RP) day-to-day — The Cardinals reassigned Thompson (shoulder) to minor-league camp Monday.
Day-To-Day

Pittsburgh Pirates

J
Jared Triolo
(SS) 10-day IL — Triolo (knee) went 3-for-4 with a home run, a walk, three RBI and an additional run Tuesday in a rehab game with Double-A Altoona.
10-Day-IL
J
Jared Jones
(SP) 60-day IL — Pirates general manager Ben Cherington said that Jones (elbow) will begin a rehab assignment Wednesday with Single-A Bradenton, Jason Mackey of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
S
Sean Sullivan
(SP) day-to-day — Sullivan owns a 5.87 ERA, 1.57 WHIP and 11:5 K:BB in 7.2 innings over his three appearances since being promoted to Triple-A Indianapolis on June 10.
Day-To-Day
D
Dominic Fletcher
(RF) day-to-day — The Pirates reassigned Fletcher to minor-league camp Monday.
Day-To-Day
A
Anthony Solometo
(SP) day-to-day — Solometo is sidelined at Double-A Altoona with recurring left shoulder discomfort, Jose Negron of DK Pittsburgh Sports reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Mike Clevinger
(RP) day-to-day — Clevinger is expected to be sidelined for around six weeks after being diagnosed with an MCL sprain in his right knee, Jason Mackey of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
O
Oddanier Mosqueda
(RP) day-to-day — Mosqueda will not throw for a couple weeks due to left forearm inflammation, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (220)
Total Over 7.0
Key Injuries
Hunter Dobbins 15-Day-IL
Matt Pushard 15-Day-IL
Jared Triolo 10-Day-IL
Jared Jones 60-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates

+7.5 EV
per $100 wagered
St. Louis Cardinals 56% Lean
"Cardinals +2.2 (56% posterior +7.5 EV): Omega 0.0 spread + MC -0.4 margin vs juiced market; over 8.5 +15pp explosion"
47% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 47%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -2.8%
Line Movement
Current Pittsburgh Pirates -2.2 / St. Louis Cardinals +2.2 | Total 8.5 | ML Pittsburgh Pirates -148 / St. Louis Cardinals +124
Movement No significant movement detected
+5.7 EV on Cardinals ML at +124; spread cover EV +7.5 at -110
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega spread even at 0.0 vs market Pirates -2.2 with Bayesian 56% Cardinals cover posterior; MC 49% away win, -0.4 margin crushes +2.2. Total mismatch massive: 65% over 8.5 posterior, Omega/MC 20+ runs projected despite no pitchers. Whales extreme Pirates but models/sharp ML away diverge +6.9pp edge.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD St. Louis Cardinals 2.2
+7.5 EV 56% 0.5u
MONEYLINE St. Louis Cardinals None
+5.7 EV 47%
TOTAL over 8.5
+20.1 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 47%
St. Louis Cardinals 124
  • Bayesian posterior 47.2% vs market 40.3% (+6.9pp edge); exponential momentum away 6.2 > home 5.1
SPREAD PICK
○ 56%
St. Louis Cardinals 2.2
  • Posterior 56.3% Cardinals cover +2.2 vs market 50%; Omega spread 0.0 vs market -2.2
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 8.5
  • Over posterior 65.2% vs market 50% (+15.2pp); Omega total 22.5 vs 8.5, MC projected 20.2
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Cardinals +2.2: 2.2 pt Omega edge vs market + $84k whale steam away (92% conf) + MC high edge conf
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