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MLB
Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox
Sox
Detroit Tigers
Tigers
Detroit Tigers
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +55.8% EV
61% Lean
61% Lean
SPREAD
Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 1.5
"Over 8.5 +24 EV (65% posterior vs 50% mkt, omega/MC 20+ total); BOS +1.5 sharp/whale edge vs juiced DET"
EV / $100
+16.5
Win Prob
65%
Edge
+15.2%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Boston Red Sox None
37%
TOTAL over 8.5
65%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 19.8% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1393980 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: away Polymarket: 402 trades Kalshi: 51 trades Largest: $93024
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +186.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.0
Win Prob
42.7%
ML
134 / -134

Player Props Engine

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Boston Red Sox

Detroit Tigers

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 108 / -130 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 111 / -121 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-440) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-161) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.5 (102)
De-Vigged Fair Value -154 / 154 116 / -116 O/U 108 / -108
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Boston Red Sox

R
Roman Anthony
(LF) day-to-day — X-rays on Anthony's right wrist returned negative, but he'll fly to Boston on Tuesday morning to see a hand specialist, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.
Day-To-Day
D
Danny Coulombe
(RP) 15-day IL — no
15-Day-IL
P
Patrick Sandoval
(SP) 60-day IL — The Red Sox transferred Sandoval (biceps/elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports.
60-Day-IL
S
Sonny Gray
(SP) 15-day IL — Gray (hamstring) will throw a bullpen session Monday, Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
R
Ranger Suarez
(SP) day-to-day — Suarez (hamstring) is hopeful he will be ready to go for his next scheduled start, Gabrielle Starr of the Boston Herald reports.
Day-To-Day
G
Garrett Crochet
(SP) 15-day IL — Crochet (shoulder) was able to play catch Sunday for the first time since landing on the injured list Wednesday, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Justin Slaten
(RP) 15-day IL — Slaten (oblique) will begin a rehab assignment with Double-A Portland on Sunday, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
15-Day-IL
T
Triston Casas
(1B) 60-day IL — The Red Sox transferred Casas (abdomen/knee) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
K
Kutter Crawford
(SP) 15-day IL — Crawford has been diagnosed with inflammation in his right elbow following an MRI, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Johan Oviedo
(SP) 60-day IL — The Red Sox transferred Oviedo (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brendan Rodgers
(2B) out — Rodgers (shoulder) re-signed Friday with the Red Sox on a two-year, minor-league contract, Chris Hatfield of SoxProspects.com reports.
Out
H
Hobie Harris
(RP) day-to-day — Red Sox manager Alex Cora said Monday that Harris has been shut down due to forearm tightness, Mac Cerullo of the Boston Herald reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Romy Gonzalez
(1B) 60-day IL — Gonzalez will have his left shoulder injury evaluated Tuesday to determine whether he needs to undergo surgery, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Tanner Houck
(SP) 60-day IL — Houck (elbow) began a throwing program Monday with 25 throws from 45 feet, Ian Browne of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL

Detroit Tigers

G
Gleyber Torres
(2B) day-to-day — Torres (side) wasn't available to pinch hit Monday against the Red Sox, Evan Woodbery of MLive.com reports.
Day-To-Day
Z
Zach McKinstry
(2B) 10-day IL — McKinstry (hip) has rejoined the Tigers in Detroit and could be activated from the 10-day injured list prior to Tuesday's game versus the Red Sox, Evan Woodbery of MLive.com reports.
10-Day-IL
T
Tarik Skubal
(SP) 15-day IL — Skubal has been scratched from his scheduled start Monday against the Red Sox due to an undisclosed injury, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Justin Verlander
(SP) 15-day IL — Verlander (hip) threw a bullpen session Sunday at close to full intensity, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
B
Beau Brieske
(RP) 60-day IL — Brieske (adductor) faced live hitters Friday for the second time during his throwing program, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Troy Melton
(RP) 60-day IL — Melton (elbow) yielded two runs (one earned) on two hits and no walks while striking out two batters over 1.2 innings in his rehab start Sunday with Single-A Lakeland.
60-Day-IL
W
Will Vest
(RP) 15-day IL — Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said Friday that Vest is "not at 100 percent" physically, Evan Woodbery of MLive.com reports.
15-Day-IL
M
Max Anderson
(2B) day-to-day — Anderson is performing well in the minors this season and will play in the Arizona Fall League, where he'll focus on defense and finding a good positional fit, Jason Beck of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Josue Briceno
(C) day-to-day — Briceno said Friday that he expects to be sidelined a few months after having surgery Wednesday to repair a tendon in his right wrist, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Javier Baez
(SS) 10-day IL — The Tigers placed Baez on the 10-day injured list Wednesday with a right ankle sprain.
10-Day-IL
C
Casey Mize
(SP) 15-day IL — Mize was removed from Tuesday's game against Atlanta with an apparent injury, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jackson Jobe
(SP) 60-day IL — Jobe (elbow) threw a bullpen session Tuesday, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Connor Seabold
(RP) 15-day IL — Detroit moved Seabold to the 15-day IL on Sunday due to left ankle inflammation, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
15-Day-IL
B
Bailey Horn
(RP) 60-day IL — The Tigers transferred Horn (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Wednesday, Evan Woodbery of MLive.com reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Parker Meadows
(CF) 60-day IL — Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said that Meadows underwent surgery Tuesday to repair a left radius fracture and will be sidelined "multiple months," Jason Beck of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Trey Sweeney
(SS) 60-day IL — The Tigers transferred Sweeney (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Saturday.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-440)
Total Over 8.5
Key Injuries
Roman Anthony Day-To-Day
Danny Coulombe 15-Day-IL
Gleyber Torres Day-To-Day
Zach McKinstry 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers

+16.5 EV
per $100 wagered
Boston Red Sox 61% Lean
"Over 8.5 +24 EV (65% posterior vs 50% mkt, omega/MC 20+ total); BOS +1.5 sharp/whale edge vs juiced DET"
65% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 65%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +15.2%
Line Movement
Current ML: DET -186 / BOS +153 | Total: 8.5 | Spread: DET -186
Movement No significant line movement detected.
+24.5 EV on over 8.5 from +15.2pp calibrated edge vs vigged market 50%; ML EV negative both sides.
FULL ANALYSIS
Total 8.5 crushed by omega 22.5, MC 19.6 avg score, Bayesian +15.2pp over edge (65.2% prob) for +24 EV. BOS runline value with sharp 19.8% edge away, +55.8% +EV retail, extreme $1.4M whales (101 wallets) on BOS despite prediction mkt home lean. ML pass neg EV both sides, low model agreement VERY_LOW, injuries balanced -9% both.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge 19.8% spread away (strong signal), ML 0.7% away (weak); +EV analysis confirms +55.8% EV away spread at retail.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Boston Red Sox 1.5
+16.5 EV 61% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Boston Red Sox None
-6.4 EV 37%
TOTAL over 8.5
+24.5 EV 65% 1.0u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 37%
Boston Red Sox 153
  • Bayesian away posterior 37% (+2pp edge vs market 35%); whales EXTREME $1.4M + sharp away but EV neg post-vig
SPREAD PICK
○ 61%
Boston Red Sox 1.5
  • MC margin +0.2 home (std 4.6) implies 61% BOS +1.5 cover; sharp +EV +55.8% away spread + extreme whales $1.4M away
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 65%
OVER 8.5
  • Bayesian over posterior 65.2% (+15.2pp vs market 50%); omega total 22.5 + MC proj 19.6 crush 8.5
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Red Sox +1.5 (54% cover, +2.9 EV) + over 7 (60% prob, +24 EV); extreme $741K whale steam on Boston vs juiced Tigers line
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