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NBA
Boston Celtics
Boston Celtics
Celtics
Philadelphia 76ers
76ers
Philadelphia 76ers
Full Game Analysis
NBA
Ω OMEGA PICK +40.7% EV
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Philadelphia 76ers Philadelphia 76ers 5.5
"PHI +5.5 / +180 value: Omega edge 3pts + Bayesian +9.7pp vs -218 juice, whales $2.6M home"
EV / $100
+12.4
Win Prob
45%
Edge
-4.6%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Philadelphia 76ers None
58%
TOTAL under 212.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors over side. 16.4% divergence on total with strong signal. RLM detected on total.
Sharp: over Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$2672153 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 659 trades Kalshi: 1089 trades Largest: $48234
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
-2.5
Edge: +3.0
Total
179.0
Edge: -33.5
Win Prob
54.4%
ML
-119 / 119

Player Props Engine

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Boston Celtics

Philadelphia 76ers

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 195 / -235 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 199 / -232 -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 21.5 (180)
Market Consensus - - Over 213.0 (-109)
Market Consensus Best Line 6.0 (-106) - -
Value Line 6.0 (-112) ↓ - -
De-Vigged Fair Value -100 / -100 218 / -218 O/U -101 / 101
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Boston Celtics

No injuries reported

Philadelphia 76ers

J
Joel Embiid
(C) day-to-day — Embiid (abdomen) is listed as probable for Thursday's Game 6 of the Eastern Conference first-round series against Boston.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
Boston Celtics @ Philadelphia 76ers
until tip-off
Current Line
Total Over 21.5
Spread 6.0 (-106)
Key Injuries
Joel Embiid Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at tip-off

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Boston Celtics @ Philadelphia 76ers

+12.4 EV
per $100 wagered
Philadelphia 76ers 60% Lean
"PHI +5.5 / +180 value: Omega edge 3pts + Bayesian +9.7pp vs -218 juice, whales $2.6M home"
45% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 45%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -4.6%
Line Movement
Current BOS -5.5 (-115) / PHI +5.5 (-105) | O/U 212.5 | BOS -218 / PHI +180
Movement No significant movement detected
+27.1 EV on PHI ML at +180; breakeven 35.7% vs our 45.4%
FULL ANALYSIS
Market juices BOS to -5.5/-218 but Omega -2.5/54.4% home win prob with Bayesian +9.7pp edge on PHI ML (+27 EV). Total 212.5 vs models 179-181 screams under despite sharp over signal. Extreme $2.6M whales on PHI confirm contrarian value; low agreement caps conf.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Philadelphia 76ers 5.5
+12.4 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Philadelphia 76ers None
+27.1 EV 58% 0.5u
TOTAL under 212.5
+2.1 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 58%
Philadelphia 76ers 180
  • Bayesian posterior 45.4% home win vs market 35.7% (+9.7pp edge); exceeds breakeven by 9.7%
SPREAD PICK
○ 60%
Philadelphia 76ers 5.5
  • Omega spread BOS -2.5 vs market -5.5 creates 3pt edge; MC away covers 55% at -2.5 implies 62%+ at +5.5
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 212.5
  • Omega total 179 / Decomp 181.3 / NegBin 181.3 vs market 212.5 (-33pt discrepancy)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Philly +7.5/+258 value (omega home -2.5 vs mkt +7.5, 10pt edge; MC cover 68%) + over 118.2 smash (MC 70%)
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