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MLB
Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds
Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK ALIGNED
55% Lean
55% Lean
SPREAD
Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 1.5
"Fade the juiced Brewers ML (-157, -EV). Play Reds +1.5 and over 8.5 for value, but keep units small due to data quality concerns."
EV / $100
+2.9
Win Prob
60%
Edge
-0.8%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Milwaukee Brewers None
56%
TOTAL over 8.5
63%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Whale Activity Detected
$2147895 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (81% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 513 trades Kalshi: 71 trades Largest: $245000
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +1.5
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.0
Win Prob
42.1%
ML
137 / -137

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

Cincinnati Reds

Milwaukee Brewers

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Market Consensus - -147 / 133 ↑ -
Market Consensus -1.5 (139) - -
Market Consensus - - Over 9.0 (101)
De-Vigged Fair Value 149 / -149 -140 / 140 O/U 108 / -108
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Cincinnati Reds

E
Elly De La Cruz
(SS) day-to-day — De La Cruz batted leadoff and went 0-for-4 with a walk in Saturday's 9-6 win over Pittsburgh.
Day-To-Day
E
Eugenio Suarez
(DH) day-to-day — Suarez (hand/wrist) underwent X-rays, which were inconclusive, after his departure from Sunday's 9-4 loss to the Pirates, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
Day-To-Day
G
Graham Ashcraft
(RP) 60-day IL — Ashcraft (elbow) will have another scan of his UCL on Tuesday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brandon Williamson
(SP) 60-day IL — Williamson (shoulder) injured his finger while working out, and his overall rehab has been pushed back by about 10 days as a result, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Blake Dunn
(CF) 10-day IL — Dunn (elbow) underwent an MRI on Saturday and is likely to return to Cincinnati for more testing, Mark Sheldon of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
T
Tony Santillan
(RP) 15-day IL — Reds manager Terry Francona said Friday that an MRI on Santillan's left oblique showed a significant strain, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
15-Day-IL
H
Hunter Greene
(SP) 60-day IL — Reds manager Terry Francona said Wednesday that Greene (elbow) will make one more rehab start with Triple-A Louisville on Sunday, Charlie Clifford of NBC 5 Cincinnati reports.
60-Day-IL
E
Emilio Pagan
(RP) 15-day IL — Pagan (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment Thursday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
15-Day-IL
K
Ke'Bryan Hayes
(3B) 10-day IL — Hayes (back) has begun hitting at the Reds' training facility in Arizona, MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Connor Burns
(C) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
C
Carson Spiers
(SP) out — The Reds re-signed Spiers (elbow) to a minor-league contract with an invitation to spring training Monday.
Out

Milwaukee Brewers

L
Logan Henderson
(SP) 15-day IL — Henderson (back) was sent to Triple-A Nashville to begin a minor-league rehab assignment Sunday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
D
DL Hall
(RP) 15-day IL — Hall (pectoral) hopes to gain clearance to resume throwing during a checkup Tuesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
B
Brandon Lockridge
(LF) 10-day IL — Lockridge's timeline for a return has been pushed back to late July after imaging showed a chondral flap in his right patella, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Coleman Crow
(SP) 15-day IL — Crow (forearm) will throw a bullpen session Tuesday, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
15-Day-IL
Q
Quinn Priester
(SP) 60-day IL — Priester will undergo thoracic outlet compression surgery on Monday and is expected to be sidelined 8-to-10 months, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brian Fitzpatrick
(RP) 60-day IL — Fitzpatrick (elbow) has been diagnosed with a left UCL strain and will get a second opinion to determine if he needs Tommy John surgery, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Carlos Rodriguez
(RP) 15-day IL — The Brewers placed Rodriguez on the 15-day injured list Monday due to a right shoulder impingement, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
R
Rob Zastryzny
(RP) 15-day IL — The Brewers reinstated Zastrzyny (shoulder/ribs) from the 60-day injured list Sunday.
15-Day-IL
A
Angel Zerpa
(RP) 60-day IL — The Brewers transferred Zerpa (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Sunday.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -1.5 (139)
Total Over 9.0
Key Injuries
Elly De La Cruz Day-To-Day
Eugenio Suarez Day-To-Day
Logan Henderson 15-Day-IL
DL Hall 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers

+2.9 EV
per $100 wagered
Cincinnati Reds 55% Lean
"Fade the juiced Brewers ML (-157, -EV). Play Reds +1.5 and over 8.5 for value, but keep units small due to data quality concerns."
60% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 60%
Book Implied 61%
Edge -0.8%
Line Movement
Current Brewers -1.5 / Total 8.5
Movement No significant movement detected
Home team on 15-day IL injuries: R. Zastryzny, C. Rodriguez, C. Crow, L. Henderson, D. Hall Away team with day-to-day injuries: E. De La Cruz, E. Suarez, C. Burns
Negative EV on Brewers moneyline. Spread and total offer better value.
FULL ANALYSIS
The Brewers are heavy favorites, but our Bayesian fusion shows negative EV on the moneyline. The spread yields a small edge for the Reds (+1.5) with +2.9% EV, though confidence is low due to data gaps. The standout play is the over 8.5, where our model sees a 65.2% probability and +24.5% EV, but the absurd OMEGA total projection (22.5) raises red flags. Proceed with caution.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Cincinnati Reds 1.5
+2.9 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Milwaukee Brewers None
-2.0 EV 56%
TOTAL over 8.5
+24.5 EV 63% 1u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 56%
Milwaukee Brewers -157
  • No edge - Bayesian posterior (60.3%) below breakeven (61.1%)
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Cincinnati Reds 1.5
  • Bayesian posterior gives Reds 53.9% cover probability, exceeding the 52.38% breakeven at -110, yielding +2.9% EV
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 63%
OVER 8.5
  • Bayesian posterior at 65.2% for over, yielding +24.5% EV vs market
  • Strong model agreement despite OMEGA total outlier
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Model projects Reds as slight favorite (51.3% MC win) vs market's 60% Brewers — fade extreme $2.1M whale volume on Brewers with Reds ML at -144; under 22.5 has 72% Monte Carlo support but totals are DDN's weakest market (48.7% WR)
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