MLS
Charlotte FC
FC
New England Revolution
Revolution
Whale Activity Detected
$15189 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Strong home consensus (100% of whale volume).
Whales: home
Polymarket: 2 trades
Largest: $7595
Ω OMEGA LINE
OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +0.5
Total
7.5
Edge: +5.0
Win Prob
45.3%
ML
121 / -121
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGACharlotte FC
New England Revolution
Model Lines
MODELSpread
4.8
Moneyline
NEW -200
/
CHA 200
Win Probability
67%
-
33%
Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.
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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS
Charlotte FC @ New England Revolution
+9.2 EV
per $100 wagered
New England Revolution
54%
Lean
"NE Rev ML +115 (52% posterior vs 46.5% mkt, +11.8 EV); Over 2.5 +14.9pp (exp 6.8 goals)"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
52%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+2.0%
Line Movement
Current
NE -0.5 (+110 / -150), O/U 2.5, ML NE +115 / Charlotte +205
Movement
No significant line movement detected
+5.5pp calibrated edge on NE ML translates to 11.8 EV at +115
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion posterior 52% NE home win vs 46.5% implied (+5.5pp, 11.8 EV at +115 ML); Omega spread even vs market -0.5 adds value on home cover. Total mismatch huge: 64.9% over 2.5 posterior (MC 6.8 exp goals, omega 7.5) vs market 50% (+23.9 EV) despite 47F temps. Moderate whale on home confirms, but data gaps cap conf.
SHARP MONEY
Moderate whale volume ($15k, 100% on home) from 1 profitable wallet; Kalshi leans away (56.5%) but diverges from model
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
54%
New England Revolution 115
- Bayesian posterior 52.0% vs market 46.5% (+5.5pp edge); exceeds breakeven by 5.5%
SPREAD PICK
○
54%
New England Revolution -0.5
- Omega spread 0.0 vs market -0.5 gives 0.5pt value; home posterior 52% exceeds 50% cover threshold
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
60%
OVER 2.5
- Over 2.5 posterior 64.9% vs 50% implied (+14.9pp); Omega total 7.5 vs market 2.5 (5pt edge), MC proj 6.8
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
NE Rev ML +115 (52% posterior vs 46.5% mkt, +11.8 EV); Over 2.5 +14.9pp (exp 6.8 goals)
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