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NHL
St. Louis Blues
St. Louis Blues
Blues
Anaheim Ducks
Ducks
Anaheim Ducks
Full Game Analysis
NHL
Ω OMEGA PICK +31.9% EV
67% Sharp Lean
67% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks None
"Ducks spread +180 = +31.9% EV vs Pinnacle fair 188 + sharp under RLM on 6.5 total (10.7% edge)"
EV / $100
+31.9
Win Prob
56%
Edge
+6.0%
Size
1.0u
MONEYLINE Anaheim Ducks None
58%
TOTAL under 6.5
64%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors under side. 10.7% divergence on total with strong signal. RLM detected on total.
Sharp: under Boost: +4

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St. Louis Blues

Anaheim Ducks

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -142 / 122 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -141 / 125 -
Sharp Action Best Line -2.5 (280) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (178) ↓ - -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 2.5 (-150)
Market Consensus - - Over 6.5 (103)
Fair Value PIN DE-VIG 188 / -188 -132 / 132 O/U 110 / -110
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

St. Louis Blues

T
Tyler Tucker
(D) out — out
Out

Anaheim Ducks

R
Radko Gudas
(D) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
P
Pavel Mintyukov
(D) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
C
Cutter Gauthier
(LW) out — Gauthier (upper body), who has already been ruled out against San Jose on Wednesday, is considered questionable for the Ducks' next two home games as well, Max Miller of NHL.com reports.
Out
J
Jansen Harkins
(C) out — Harkins had hand surgery Monday and is expected to miss about four weeks, the team announced Tuesday.
Out
R
Ross Johnston
(LW) out — Johnston (lower body) is expected to miss 3-4 weeks, per Derek Lee of The Hockey News.
Out
P
Petr Mrazek
(G) Injured Reserve — Mrazek underwent season-ending hip surgery Tuesday.
Injured Reserve
Game Preview
St. Louis Blues @ Anaheim Ducks
until puck drop
Current Line
Spread -2.5 (280)
Total Over 2.5
Key Injuries
Tyler Tucker Out
Radko Gudas Day-To-Day
Pavel Mintyukov Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at puck drop

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

St. Louis Blues @ Anaheim Ducks

+31.9 EV
per $100 wagered
Anaheim Ducks 67% Sharp Lean
"Ducks spread +180 = +31.9% EV vs Pinnacle fair 188 + sharp under RLM on 6.5 total (10.7% edge)"
56% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 56%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +6.0%
Line Movement
Current ANA -142 ML / STL +120 ML | Spread ANA +180 / STL -218 | Total 6.5
Movement RLM detected on total (sharp under)
Home ML breakeven 58.7%, our 56% model lacks 5% edge threshold per rules → PASS ML; focus spread/total sharp signals
Model: 44.0% win rate | n=168 — Strong moneylines (57.6% in 68-72 tier) but avoid props (0-27 lean tier); NHL home MLs prioritized
FULL ANALYSIS
Sharp money hammering Ducks spread (+9.7% edge, +31.9% EV at +180 Bovada) and total under (10.7% divergence + RLM) as Pinnacle de-vigs expose retail overpricing. Ducks multiple injuries (Gauthier/Harkins out) but home ice + Blues Tucker out keeps it tight; model 6-3 vs STL. Robert Thomas over 0.5 pts has usage edge vs depleted Ducks D.
SHARP MONEY
Strong sharp edge on spread home (9.7%) + total under (10.7% with RLM); Bovada spread home +280 vs Pinnacle fair 188 = +31.9% EV
Recommended Sizing
1.0u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Anaheim Ducks None
+31.9 EV 67% 1.0u
MONEYLINE Anaheim Ducks None
-3.1 EV 58% 0.5u
TOTAL under 6.5
+12.6 EV 64% 1.0u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 64%
St. Louis Blues -224
  • Omega win prob 69.1% matches -224 exactly; no edge after vig
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
St. Louis Blues 0.0
  • Omega spread 0.0 but ELO favors Blues by 0.6 with superior away rating (1483 vs 1468)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 54%
UNDER 19.0
  • Model totals consistently losing across tiers (34-40% hit rate); fade high 19.0 projection
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Blues PK +2.1 EV (ELO 0.6 edge + Ducks 5 outs) despite even Poisson; fade model totals (34% recent hit rate)
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