La Liga
Atlético Madrid
Madrid
Osasuna
Osasuna
Whale Activity Detected
$89098 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Strong home consensus (95% of whale volume).
Whales: home
Polymarket: 1 trades
Kalshi: 236 trades
Largest: $4750
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGAAtlético Madrid
Osasuna
ELO Model Lines
MODELSpread
-0.5
Moneyline
OSA 107
/
ATL -107
Win Probability
48%
-
52%
ELO model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
Atlético Madrid @ Osasuna
+1.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Osasuna
57%
Lean
"Osasuna +155 home dog: strong whale steam ($89k, 96%) yields +7.1 EV vs market"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
42%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
-8.0%
Line Movement
Current
ML: Osasuna +155 / Atlético Madrid -165 | Spread: Osasuna -0.5 +140 / Atlético Madrid +0.5 -195 | Total: 2.5 (-110)
Movement
No significant movement detected
Slight +EV on home dog from whale boost over neutral posterior
FULL ANALYSIS
Strong whale action on Osasuna ($89k vol, 96% conf) creates edge vs neutral 39.2% posterior in low-data spot. Atlético 19-6-10 record superior but El Sadar venue + cool 51F weather unpriced. Totals weak historically, lean under with no pace data.
SHARP MONEY
STRONG whale volume ($89k, 96% confidence, 1 profitable wallet) equivalent to steam move
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
60%
Osasuna 155
- Strong whale signal ($89k volume, 96% conviction) creates 2.8pp edge over 39.2% market
SPREAD PICK
○
57%
Osasuna -0.5
- Whale steam on home side pushes prob to 42% vs 41.7% implied at +140
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
55%
UNDER 2.5
- Cool 51F Pamplona weather + low wind suppresses scoring in LALIGA spot
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Atlético 58.3% posterior but -180 no EV; $89k strong whales on Osasuna dog + under 2.5 value
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