Home › Serie A › Parma @ Udinese
Serie A
Parma
Parma
Parma
Udinese
Udinese
Udinese
Full Game Analysis
Serie A
Ω OMEGA PICK
55% Lean
55% Lean
SPREAD
Parma Parma 0.5
"Udinese +110 ML value (52% model vs 47.6% implied, +9.2 EV) in data-poor spot"
EV / $100
+1.2
Win Prob
52%
Edge
+2.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Udinese None
60%
TOTAL under 2.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

Parma

Udinese

Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
1.2
Moneyline
UDI -119 / PAR 119
Win Probability
54% - 46%

Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.

Game Preview
Parma @ Udinese
until kickoff
Analysis starts at kickoff

Get Daily Picks

AI picks delivered to your inbox every morning.

You're in!

Already subscribed!

Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Parma @ Udinese

+1.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Parma 55% Lean Raw
"Udinese +110 ML value (52% model vs 47.6% implied, +9.2 EV) in data-poor spot"
52% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 52%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +2.0%
Line Movement
Current Udinese -0.5 (-150 / Parma +0.5 +105)
Movement No significant line movement detected
+EV on Udinese ML at +110; spread too juiced at -150
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion shows no edge but Udinese +110 ML beats 47.6% implied with 52% our prob (+9.2 EV). Spread -150 too juiced for 52% win prob; Parma +0.5 reciprocal value. Under 2.5 leans on Serie A norms but totals unprofitable historically.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Parma 0.5
+1.2 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Udinese None
+9.2 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL under 2.5
+2.3 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 60%
Udinese 110
  • Home ML +110 undervalues Udinese at 47.6% implied vs our 52% projection from Bayesian fusion
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Parma 0.5
  • Juiced Udinese -0.5 at -150 with only 52% model win prob creates reciprocal value on Parma +0.5
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 2.5
  • Serie A avg ~2.7 goals but totals historically losing (48.7% WR), model projects 2.3 total
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Udinese -0.5 +105: +10.7 EV from 54% home win prob vs 48.8% implied; low gpg leaders
Partner Spotlight

Want to reach bettors who use data?

partnerships@degendailynews.com

21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-522-4700