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Ligue 1
Angers
Angers
Angers
0 - 2
Final
Lyon
Lyon
Lyon
Full Game Analysis
Ligue 1
Ω DDN SI PICK
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Angers Angers 1.5
"Lyon's -235 price is 8pp above model (62%) — take Angers +1.5 (-155) and under 2.5 (+120) where the juice is on the wrong side"
EV / $100
+5.0
Win Prob
62%
Edge
-8.1%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Angers None
50%
TOTAL under 2.5
58%
Full DDN SI Breakdown

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Angers

Lyon

Box Score + DDN SI Props

Box Score
FINAL
Angers
Angers
0
-
Lyon
Lyon
2
Angers 1.5
60% conf
L

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Recorded picks and reasons

These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.

Total: under 2.5 (+120) WIN · Recorded 2026-11-01T07:08:42.982255 UTC

Over juiced to -155 (60.8% implied) while model sees closer to 53% over probability; under at +120 pays positive EV on a modest under lean

Spread: Angers 1.5 (-155) LOSS · Recorded 2026-11-01T02:09:39.347958 UTC

Lyon -1.5 (+110) implies ~62% cover rate but soccer -1.5 favorites hit that spread under 55% historically at this price class; Angers +1.5 is the side holding value

Moneyline: Angers (+600) LOSS · Recorded 2026-11-01T14:46:30.214020 UTC

Angers +600 implies 14.3%; model sees ~12-14% win chance at Groupama — a tiny longshot lottery at best, no positive EV case without roster data

Ω
DDN SI ANALYSIS

Angers @ Lyon

+5.0 EV
per $100 wagered
Angers 60% Lean
"Lyon's -235 price is 8pp above model (62%) — take Angers +1.5 (-155) and under 2.5 (+120) where the juice is on the wrong side"
62% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 62%
Book Implied 70%
Edge -8.1%
Line Movement
Current Home ML -235, Home -1.5 (+110), Total 2.5
Movement No opening/steam data supplied; single-book (DraftKings) quote only
Lyon ML at -235 requires 70.1%; our model sees only ~62% — negative EV, no ML play at that price
FULL ANALYSIS
Lyon -235 requires 70% and our model only gets to ~62% at Groupama — that ML is pure vig, so skip it. The value lives on the other side: Angers +1.5 at -155 where Lyon -1.5 favorites historically fail to cover at the implied 62% rate, plus under 2.5 at +120 against a -155 juiced over. No sharp data, no roster data — both plays are LEAN-tier 0.5u positions, nothing bigger.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

DDN SI Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Angers 1.5
+5.0 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Angers None
50%
TOTAL under 2.5
+3.0 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 50%
Angers 600
  • Angers +600 implies 14.3%; model sees ~12-14% win chance at Groupama — a tiny longshot lottery at best, no positive EV case without roster data
SPREAD PICK
○ 60%
Angers 1.5
  • Lyon -1.5 (+110) implies ~62% cover rate but soccer -1.5 favorites hit that spread under 55% historically at this price class; Angers +1.5 is the side holding value
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
UNDER 2.5
  • Over juiced to -155 (60.8% implied) while model sees closer to 53% over probability; under at +120 pays positive EV on a modest under lean
About This Analysis

DDN SI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Take the plus-money over the juice: Lyon -1.5 at +105 carries ~50% cover vs 48.8% implied, while the -245 ML needs 71% and our model only says 68%.
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