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Toronto FC
Toronto FC
FC
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Atlanta United FC
FC
Atlanta United FC
Full Game Analysis
MLS
Ω DDN SI PICK
58% Lean
58% Lean
SPREAD
Toronto FC Toronto FC 0.5
"Atlanta ML +105 at 52.5% model probability (~+5 EV) vs an 8-6-18 season, but sub-.500 chaos with no market edge history — 0.5u max"
EV / $100
-9.1
Win Prob
52%
Edge
+2.5%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Atlanta United FC None
55%
TOTAL under 3.5
56%
Full DDN SI Breakdown

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Toronto FC

Atlanta United FC

Box Score + DDN SI Props

Box Score
FINAL
Toronto FC
FC
1
-
Atlanta United FC
FC
3
Toronto FC 0.5
58% conf
L

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Recorded picks and reasons

These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.

Spread: Toronto FC 0.5 (-140) LOSS · Recorded 2026-11-01T00:38:58.711568 UTC

Toronto finished 9-12-11 vs Atlanta's 8-6-18, and the away side is priced as the更大 favorite on the spread at -140 despite being the underdog ML at +195, so the market's real read leans Toronto.

Moneyline: Atlanta United FC (+105) WIN · Recorded 2026-11-01T19:32:11.022030 UTC

Atlanta +105 implies 48.8% at home where the ML favorite should sit above 50% even with an 8-6-18 season; model reads 52.5% for a +3.7pp edge at plus money.

Ω
DDN SI ANALYSIS

Toronto FC @ Atlanta United FC

+-9.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Toronto FC 58% Lean
"Atlanta ML +105 at 52.5% model probability (~+5 EV) vs an 8-6-18 season, but sub-.500 chaos with no market edge history — 0.5u max"
52% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 52%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +2.5%
Line Movement
Current Spread -0.5 (Home +100 / Away -140), Total 3.5, ML Home +105 / Away +195
Movement No movement data provided
none
Model puts Atlanta at ~52.5% to win at home vs the +100 price implying 50%, giving roughly +5 EV per $100. Thin edge, sample-size caveat applies with no quantitative models available for MLS.
FULL ANALYSIS
Toronto went 9-12-11 vs Atlanta's 8-6-18, yet the market hangs a home pick'em-plus on theFive-stripes — Atlanta at +105 on the ML vs 52.5% model win probability is the only spot with measurable EV (+5/$100). Keep stakes minimal: no quantitative models, no sharp data, and the away spread (Toronto +0.5, -140) shows the money is actually leaning toward the visitors. Under 3.5 only as a half-unit LEAN given our 48.7% historical totals WR.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

DDN SI Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Toronto FC 0.5
-9.1 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Atlanta United FC None
+5.0 EV 55% 0.5u
TOTAL under 3.5
+2.3 EV 56% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Atlanta United FC 105.0
  • Atlanta +105 implies 48.8% at home where the ML favorite should sit above 50% even with an 8-6-18 season; model reads 52.5% for a +3.7pp edge at plus money
SPREAD PICK
○ 58%
Toronto FC 0.5
  • Toronto finished 9-12-11 vs Atlanta's 8-6-18, and the away side is priced as the更大 favorite on the spread at -140 despite being the underdog ML at +195, so the market's real read leans Toronto
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 56%
UNDER 3.5
  • Two sub-.500 sides (Atlanta 8-6-18, Toronto 9-12-11) combined with late-season MLS matches trending lower scoring; 3.5 is a high bar against two leaky but_attack-limited teams
About This Analysis

DDN SI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Atlanta -0.5 at +110 in a market board showing 17.8% unknown-side vig — least-bad of three marginal prices, capped 0.5u
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