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MLB
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays
Rays
Boston Red Sox
Sox
Boston Red Sox
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +48.1% EV EARLY VALUE
56% Lean
56% Lean
SPREAD
Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 2.2
"Rays +117 ML +11.3pp Bayesian edge, OMEGA even vs mkt -2.2 & 22.5 total crushes 8.5"
EV / $100
+5.7
Win Prob
54%
Edge
+3.9%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Tampa Bay Rays None
54%
TOTAL over 8.5
62%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 13.6% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1072879 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (80% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 533 trades Kalshi: 96 trades Largest: $90740
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +2.2
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.0
Win Prob
30.2%
ML
231 / -231

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

Tampa Bay Rays

Boston Red Sox

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -138 / 115 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -130 / 120 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (295) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (157) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.5 (-107)
De-Vigged Fair Value 167 / -167 -125 / 125 O/U -101 / 101
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Tampa Bay Rays

A
Austin Vernon
(RP) day-to-day — The Rays have shut Vernon down from throwing due to right elbow soreness, per MLB.com.
Day-To-Day
T
Ty Johnson
(SP) day-to-day — Triple-A Durham placed Johnson on the 7-day injured list due to a lower-back strain, Sam Dykstra of MLB Pipeline reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Joe Boyle
(SP) 15-day IL — Boyle (elbow) struck out four over two scoreless innings in his first rehab start Wednesday with Triple-A Durham.
15-Day-IL
S
Steven Wilson
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rays placed Wilson (back) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
S
Steven Matz
(SP) 15-day IL — Matz's (elbow) stint on the 15-day injured list is not expected to last long, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.
15-Day-IL
L
Logan Driscoll
(C) day-to-day — The Rays released Driscoll (ankle) on Friday, Ryan Bass of FanDuel Sports Network Sun reports.
Day-To-Day
K
Keyshawn Askew
(RP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
R
Ryan Pepiot
(SP) 60-day IL — Pepiot will undergo surgery on his right hip May 13 and miss the rest of the 2026 season, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Tre' Morgan
(1B) day-to-day — Triple-A Durham placed Morgan on the 7-day injured list with a quad injury, Sam Dykstra of MLB Pipeline reports.
Day-To-Day
A
Alfredo Zarraga
(RP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
J
John Rooney
(RP) day-to-day — The Rays signed Rooney (elbow) to a minor-league contract Nov. 15.
Day-To-Day
M
Michael Grove
(RP) 60-day IL — Grove (shoulder) is scheduled to face hitters this weekend, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
M
Manuel Rodriguez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rays placed Rodriguez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
E
Edwin Uceta
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rays transferred Uceta (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Friday, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.
60-Day-IL
T
TJ Nichols
(P) day-to-day — Double-A Montgomery placed Nichols on its 7-day injured list April 7 due to an unspecified injury.
Day-To-Day
G
Gavin Lux
(LF) 10-day IL — Lux (shoulder/ankle) is tracking toward a return during the Rays' series in Boston this weekend, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
10-Day-IL

Boston Red Sox

R
Ranger Suarez
(SP) day-to-day — Red Sox interim manager Chad Tracy said Friday that Suarez's (hamstring) next start will come next week "sometime in the Philly series," Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
Day-To-Day
H
Hobie Harris
(RP) day-to-day — Harris was optioned to Triple-A Rochester on Saturday, Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Roman Anthony
(LF) 10-day IL — The Red Sox placed Anthony (wrist) on the 10-day injured list Thursday, retroactive to Tuesday, Gabrielle Starr of the Boston Herald reports.
10-Day-IL
T
Triston Casas
(1B) 60-day IL — The Red Sox transferred Casas (abdomen/knee) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
B
Brendan Rodgers
(2B) out — Rodgers (shoulder) re-signed Friday with the Red Sox on a two-year, minor-league contract, Chris Hatfield of SoxProspects.com reports.
Out
R
Romy Gonzalez
(1B) 60-day IL — The Red Sox placed Gonzalez (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Thursday, Christopher Smith of MassLive.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Justin Slaten
(RP) 15-day IL — Slaten (oblique) allowed one hit and struck out two over a scoreless inning for Double-A Portland on Sunday.
15-Day-IL
D
Danny Coulombe
(RP) 15-day IL — The Red Sox placed Coulombe on the 15-day injured list Monday with cervical spasms.
15-Day-IL
T
Tanner Houck
(SP) 60-day IL — Houck (elbow) began a throwing program Monday with 25 throws from 45 feet, Ian Browne of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Patrick Sandoval
(SP) 60-day IL — The Red Sox transferred Sandoval (biceps/elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.
60-Day-IL
G
Garrett Crochet
(SP) 15-day IL — Crochet (shoulder) was able to play catch Sunday for the first time since landing on the injured list Wednesday, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Johan Oviedo
(SP) 60-day IL — Oviedo (elbow) will be reevaluated by Dr. Keith Meister in two weeks to determine his progress, Marcos Grunfeld of ElEmergente.com reports.
60-Day-IL
K
Kutter Crawford
(SP) 15-day IL — Crawford has been diagnosed with inflammation in his right elbow following an MRI, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
15-Day-IL
Game Preview
Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (295)
Total Over 8.5
Key Injuries
Austin Vernon Day-To-Day
Ty Johnson Day-To-Day
Ranger Suarez Day-To-Day
Hobie Harris Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox

+5.7 EV
per $100 wagered
Tampa Bay Rays 56% Lean
"Rays +117 ML +11.3pp Bayesian edge, OMEGA even vs mkt -2.2 & 22.5 total crushes 8.5"
54% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 54%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +3.9%
Line Movement
Current Boston -2.2 / Rays +2.2 | O/U 8.5 | ML Boston -135 / Rays +117
Movement No significant movement
Injury net home edge +1.9% but poor quality data
+11.3pp edge on Rays ML exceeds breakeven (46.1%) by 7.8pp; spread away +6.3pp EV ~5.7; over total +15.2pp EV ~13.8 (reduced for totals calibration)
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion shows Rays 53.9% ML vs market 42.5% (+11.3pp) with OMEGA even spread vs -2.2 market for +2.2pt edge; total posterior 65.2% over 8.5 aligns OMEGA 22.5 proj despite no pitchers. Injuries net home +1.9% but poor quality; whales extreme home volume contradicts model (-conf). Mixed sharp (spread home) but +EV away cover 62.5% Pinnacle fair.
SHARP MONEY
ML sharp away (1.1%); spread sharp home (13.9% strong); Pinnacle fair spread away 62.5%
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Tampa Bay Rays 2.2
+5.7 EV 56% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Tampa Bay Rays None
+17.0 EV 54% 0.5u
TOTAL over 8.5
+13.8 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 54%
Tampa Bay Rays 117
  • Posterior 53.9% Rays win vs market 42.5% (+11.3pp); exceeds +117 breakeven 46.1% by 7.8pp
SPREAD PICK
○ 56%
Tampa Bay Rays 2.2
  • Bayesian posterior 56.3% Rays cover vs market 50%; OMEGA even spread vs market -2.2 = +2.2pt early value
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 62%
OVER 8.5
  • Posterior 65.2% over vs 50% (+15.2pp); OMEGA total 22.5 vs market 8.5 = massive 14pt edge
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Rays +3: +8.4pp Bayesian edge + Omega pick'em vs BOS -3 juice (MC tight 10-9.7)
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