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Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates
New York Mets
Mets
New York Mets
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
58% Lean
58% Lean
MONEYLINE
Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates
"Early MLB under 7: model totals 6.8 runs with dual bullpen injuries (+3.2 EV)"
EV / $100
-1.2
Win Prob
51%
Edge
+1.0%
SPREAD New York Mets -1.5
55%
TOTAL Under 7.0 7.0
67%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Pittsburgh Pirates

New York Mets

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Pinnacle - -112 / 102 ↑ -
Pinnacle -1.5 (185) - -
Pinnacle - - Over 7.0 (-107)
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Pittsburgh Pirates

C
Chris Devenski
(RP) out — The Pirates reassigned Devenski (head) to minor-league camp Sunday.
Out
O
Oddanier Mosqueda
(RP) out — Mosqueda will not throw for a couple weeks due to left forearm inflammation, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
Out
R
Ronny Simon
(2B) out — Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Monday that Simon (shoulder) is projected to return to game competition in late March or early April, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
Out
J
Jared Jones
(SP) 60-day IL — Pirates senior director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Monday that Jones (elbow) should be ready for game action when he's eligible to return from the 60-day injured list in late May, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Anthony Solometo
(SP) day-to-day — Solometo was pulled off his rehab assignment with Single-A Bradenton in late June after he experienced recurrent shoulder discomfort, Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
Day-To-Day

New York Mets

A
A.J. Minter
(RP) 15-day IL — The Mets placed Minter (lat) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
F
Francisco Lindor
(SS) day-to-day — Lindor (hand) is expected to be good to go for Thursday's Opening Day game against the Pirates, MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
N
Nate Lavender
(RP) day-to-day — Lavender (elbow) cleared outright waivers Wednesday and was returned to the Mets.
Day-To-Day
M
Mike Tauchman
(RF) out — Tauchman was diagnosed Sunday with a torn meniscus in his left knee and will require surgery, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports.
Out
J
Justin Hagenman
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture.
60-Day-IL
B
Brandon Waddell
(RP) day-to-day — The Mets outrighted Waddell to Triple-A Syracuse on Friday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Robert Stock
(RP) out — Stock experienced shoulder discomfort while playing with Team Israel in the World Baseball Classic and will undergo testing, Laura Albanese of Newsday reports.
Out
G
Grae Kessinger
(3B) out — Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said that Kessinger will get imaging done after suffering a left knee injury in Friday's Grapefruit League game against the Cardinals, SNY Mets reports.
Out
D
Dedniel Nunez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets transferred Nunez (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.
60-Day-IL
T
Tylor Megill
(SP) 60-day IL — The Mets and Megill (elbow) avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $2.5 million contract Thursday, Ari Alexander of 7 News Boston reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Reed Garrett
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Garrett (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Mets
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -1.5 (185)
Total Over 7.0
Key Injuries
Chris Devenski Out
Oddanier Mosqueda Out
A.J. Minter 15-Day-IL
Francisco Lindor Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Mets

+-1.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Pittsburgh Pirates 58% Lean
"Early MLB under 7: model totals 6.8 runs with dual bullpen injuries (+3.2 EV)"
51% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 51%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +1.0%
Line Movement
Current NYM -118 / PIT -102 | Total 7.0
Movement No movement data
No edge on Mets ML; Pirates ML shows -EV at -102
Model: 60.0% win rate | n=10 — Based on N=10 graded MLB outcomes (60%)
FULL ANALYSIS
Low total 7.0 screams early season under with both bullpens banged up (Devenski/Minter out, Jones IL). Model projects 4.2-3.8 Mets edge but Pirates ML nearly fair at -102. Lindor DTD + PIT pen injuries create overreaction value on under 7.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Pittsburgh Pirates
-1.2 EV 58%
SPREAD New York Mets -1.5
+0.8 EV 55%
TOTAL Under 7.0 7.0
+3.2 EV 67% 1u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 62%
Pittsburgh Pirates -101
  • Model sees Pirates win prob at 49% vs 45.7% implied, capturing vig inefficiency on near-coinflip
SPREAD PICK
○ 59%
Pittsburgh Pirates
  • Omega model projects expected spread of PIT +0.8 based on pitcher equilibrium and injuries
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 68%
UNDER 6.5 6.5
  • Early MLB totals average 1.2 runs below norm; 6.5 implies 3.25/game but model projects 5.8 total
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Under 6.5 (-110, +3.4 EV) as early MLB totals undervalue 1.2 run suppression; Pirates ML +1.2 EV on injury inefficiency
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