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UTSA Roadrunners
UTSA Roadrunners
Roadrunner
Florida Atlantic Owls
Owls
Florida Atlantic Owls
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NCAA Football
Ω DDN SI PICK
62% Lean
62% Lean
SPREAD
UTSA Roadrunners UTSA Roadrunners -7.0
"Spread is the value entry on UTSA (-7): model shows 55% cover vs ~51.2% implied for +8.8 EV per $100"
EV / $100
+8.8
Win Prob
55%
Edge
+3.8%
Size
1.0u
MONEYLINE UTSA Roadrunners None
50%
TOTAL under 72.5
57%
Full DDN SI Breakdown
Whale Activity Detected
$305 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (100% of whale volume).
Whales: home Kalshi: 2 trades Largest: $192
⚠
Key Number Alert
KEY NUMBER: Spread at 7.0 — 9.2% of NFL games land on 7. Buying the half point is worth ~4.6% win probability. Pay up to -120 for the buy.

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UTSA Roadrunners

Florida Atlantic Owls

DDN SI Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
-9.4
Moneyline
FLO 385 / UTS -385
Win Probability
21% - 79%

DDN SI model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.

Game Preview
UTSA Roadrunners @ Florida Atlantic Owls
until tip-off
Analysis starts at tip-off

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Recorded picks and reasons

These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.

Spread: UTSA Roadrunners -7.0 (-105) PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-05T08:36:46.908544 UTC

Our probability has UTSA at roughly 55% to cover -7 vs ~51.2% implied, yielding positive EV on a 7-point road favorite in a matchup where no situational counterweight (injuries, rest, travel) was flagged against UTSA.

Ω
DDN SI ANALYSIS

UTSA Roadrunners @ Florida Atlantic Owls

+8.8 EV
per $100 wagered
UTSA Roadrunners 62% Lean
"Spread is the value entry on UTSA (-7): model shows 55% cover vs ~51.2% implied for +8.8 EV per $100"
55% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 55%
Book Implied 51%
Edge +3.8%
Line Movement
Current FAU +7.0 (UTSA -7.0), Total 72.5, UTSA ML -265 / FAU +215
De-vigged spread market prices UTSA -7 at ~51.2% to cover. Our model lands UTSA at ~55%, north of the 2% vig threshold, making UTSA -7 the positive-EV entry point. The -265 moneyline fails the price filter (breakeven 72.6% > our 65-capped confidence), so the number to attack is the spread, not the ML.
FULL ANALYSIS
UTSA -7 is the only number worth touching: the ML (-265) prices UTSA at 72.6% breakeven, but the spread market only implies ~51-52% cover probability, and our model puts UTSA at 55% — real but modest edge on the -105 side. The 7 is a key number; if you can buy to -6.5 at -120, take it. Under 72.5 is a weak-side lean damped by totals being this engine's worst market (48.7% historical WR). This is a display-tier NCAA game on a non-validated slate — the read is UTSA -7 and a light under look.
SHARP MONEY
Slight juice on FAU +7 (-115 vs -105) suggests the book may be protecting the dog side or anticipating UTSA-cover action. No Pinnacle/retail divergence, bet-vs-money splits, or Kambi data supplied, so any sharp read is speculative — this is a source-limited, non-validated-slate game. Sample size for any historical claim here is N/A (<20 threshold not met with supplied data).
Recommended Sizing
1.0u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD UTSA Roadrunners -7.0
+8.8 EV 62% 1.0u
MONEYLINE UTSA Roadrunners None
-6.5 EV 50%
TOTAL under 72.5
+4.0 EV 57%
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 50%
UTSA Roadrunners -265
  • PASS-tier under odds-contract rule: UTSA ML -265 carries a 72.6% breakeven, which exceeds even the ML 畅filter requirement (breakeven +5pp needs ~77.6%; hard filter kicks at breakeven >71.4%) and the portable 65 confidence cap in non-validated sports
  • Return pick is contract-mandated at minimum 50 confidence; no value at this price
SPREAD PICK
○ 62%
UTSA Roadrunners -7.0
  • Our probability has UTSA at roughly 55% to cover -7 vs ~51.2% implied, yielding positive EV on a 7-point road favorite in a matchup where no situational counterweight (injuries, rest, travel) was flagged against UTSA
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 57%
UNDER 72.5
  • 72.5 is a near-prime total for a matchup where both bowl-eligible drives and quick scores compress scoring windows; with no total-specific pace data supplied and a thin -100/-104 spread, treat as a minimalvod edge — totals are a proven weak market and confidence is damped 5 points accordingly
About This Analysis

DDN SI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
FAU +7 at -115 — full TD on the 9-landing margin, ~1% EV, and the -265 UTSA ML is a hard pass at 72.6% breakeven.
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