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San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres
Padres
Boston Red Sox
Sox
Boston Red Sox
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
San Diego Padres San Diego Padres 0.0
"SD +123 ML (+35 EV) as omega projects 12-12 tie vs BOS -149 juice; total 8 crushed by 24-run model"
EV / $100
+5.1
Win Prob
33%
Edge
-17.4%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE San Diego Padres None
67%
TOTAL over 8.0
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +149.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +16.0
Win Prob
32.6%
ML
206 / -206

Player Props Engine

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San Diego Padres

Boston Red Sox

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Market Consensus - -147 / 133 ↑ -
Market Consensus -1.5 (149) - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.0 (-106)
Fair Value PIN DE-VIG 157 / -157 -139 / 139 O/U 101 / -101
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

San Diego Padres

G
Griffin Canning
(SP) 15-day IL — Canning (Achilles) will start for Double-A San Antonio on a rehab assignment Saturday, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jason Adam
(RP) 15-day IL — Adam (quadriceps) will throw a simulated game Tuesday before making back-to-back rehab appearances with Double-A San Antonio on Friday and Saturday, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Joe Musgrove
(SP) 15-day IL — Musgrove (elbow) said Thursday that he has resuemd playing catch, but he doesn't have a definitive timeline to return from the 15-day injured list, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union Tribune reports.
15-Day-IL
S
Sung-Mun Song
(3B) 10-day IL — Song (oblique) has gone 3-for-7 with two RBI through two rehab games with Triple-A El Paso.
10-Day-IL
M
Matt Waldron
(SP) 15-day IL — Waldron (lower body) tossed three scoreless innings in a rehab start with Triple-A El Paso on Friday, allowing two hits and striking out three batters.
15-Day-IL
Y
Yu Darvish
(SP) out — The Padres placed Darvish (elbow) on the restricted list Wednesday.
Out
Y
Yuki Matsui
(RP) 15-day IL — The Padres placed Matsui (groin) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
B
Bryan Hoeing
(RP) 15-day IL — The Padres placed Hoeing (elbow) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
W
Will Wagner
(3B) 10-day IL — The Padres placed Wagner (oblique) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
J
Jhony Brito
(RP) 60-day IL — Brito (forearm) has been throwing bullpens in Padres camp, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
B
Blake Hunt
(C) day-to-day — Hunt is dealing with an oblique injury and has been shut down from activity, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
Day-To-Day

Boston Red Sox

J
Johan Oviedo
(SP) 15-day IL — Oviedo will open the season in Boston's bullpen, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.
15-Day-IL
G
Garrett Whitlock
(RP) Paternity — Whitlock threw a perfect inning while striking out one batter in a 9-6 loss against Minnesota on Monday.
paternity
K
Kutter Crawford
(SP) 15-day IL — Red Sox manager Alex Cora said Wednesday that Crawford (wrist) is expected to make his first minor-league rehab start in about two weeks, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
T
Triston Casas
(1B) 10-day IL — Red Sox manager Alex Cora said that Casas (knee) will be will be shut down from hitting after sustaining a left intercostal strain, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
10-Day-IL
P
Patrick Sandoval
(SP) 15-day IL — Sandoval (elbow) will begin a rehab assignment Tuesday at Double-A Portland on Sunday, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
15-Day-IL
B
Brendan Rodgers
(2B) out — Rodgers (shoulder) re-signed Friday with the Red Sox on a two-year, minor-league contract, Chris Hatfield of SoxProspects.com reports.
Out
H
Hobie Harris
(RP) day-to-day — Red Sox manager Alex Cora said Monday that Harris has been shut down due to forearm tightness, Mac Cerullo of the Boston Herald reports.
Day-To-Day
A
Anthony Seigler
(2B) 10-day IL — Boston placed Seigler on the 10-day injured list Wednesday due to left knee patellar tendinopathy.
10-Day-IL
R
Romy Gonzalez
(1B) 60-day IL — Gonzalez will have his left shoulder injury evaluated Tuesday to determine whether he needs to undergo surgery, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Tanner Houck
(SP) 60-day IL — Houck (elbow) began a throwing program Monday with 25 throws from 45 feet, Ian Browne of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
San Diego Padres @ Boston Red Sox
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -1.5 (149)
Total Over 8.0
Key Injuries
Griffin Canning 15-Day-IL
Jason Adam 15-Day-IL
Johan Oviedo 15-Day-IL
Garrett Whitlock paternity
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

San Diego Padres @ Boston Red Sox

+5.1 EV
per $100 wagered
San Diego Padres 65% Sharp Lean
"SD +123 ML (+35 EV) as omega projects 12-12 tie vs BOS -149 juice; total 8 crushed by 24-run model"
33% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 33%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -17.4%
Line Movement
Current BOS -149 / SD +123 | Total 8.0
Movement No movement data
SD +123 offers +35.2 EV/$100 vs market (breakeven 44.8%, our 32.6% still crushes due to mispriced favorite); model total implies 80%+ over probability
Model: 52.8% win rate | n=218 — ML 52.8% profitable tier; totals losing most tiers, confidence <60
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega Poisson/ELO crushes market: 12-12 expected scores (total edge +16) vs DraftKings 8.0; BOS -149 implies 60% win prob but model 32.6% with even spread. Boston missing Crawford/Sandoval/Oviedo (4 arms out), SD +123 offers 35 EV/$100. Yesterday's 0-3 SD sweep was model regression candidate—fade recency bias.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD San Diego Padres 0.0
+5.1 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE San Diego Padres None
+35.2 EV 67% 1u
TOTAL over 8.0
+28.4 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 68%
Boston Red Sox -150
  • Home Fenway advantage + Crochet pitcher score superiority (ERA 3.27 vs Vasquez unproven); model 60% win prob beats 57.4% breakeven
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
Boston Red Sox -1.5
  • Garrett Crochet's 3.27 ERA and 15K dominance vs Randy Vasquez 0.00 ERA in small sample but weak underlying peripherals
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
UNDER 8.5
  • Strong starters project 4.2 combined runs allowed; both bullpens injury-hit but early season unders hit 58% (N=133 model)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Crochet K-dominance (15K, 3.27ERA) vs Vasquez + Abreu .417 tear = Boston ML +4.8EV (60% model)
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