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Seattle Mariners
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San Diego Padres
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Player Props Engine
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San Diego Padres
Injury Report
Seattle Mariners
J.P. Crawford
(SS)
day-to-day — Crawford received a cortisone injection in his injured shoulder Wednesday, and manager Dan Wilson said it's unclear if the shortstop will be ready to play in the March 26 season opener versus the Guardians, Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reports.
Day-To-Day
Bryce Miller
(SP)
out — Miller (oblique) is scheduled to throw a bullpen session Tuesday, Shannon Drayer of SeattleSports.com reports.
Out
Brennen Davis
(CF)
day-to-day — Davis was removed from Satuday's Cactus League game against the Angels due to left hamstring tightness, Tim Booth of The Seattle Times reports.
Day-To-Day
Miles Mastrobuoni
(3B)
day-to-day — Mastrobuoni went 2-for-2 with a double and a grand slam in Saturday's Cactus League matchup with the Giants.
Day-To-Day
Logan Evans
(SP)
60-day IL — Evans underwent UCL reconstruction surgery with an internal brace Jan. 23 on his right elbow.
60-Day-IL
San Diego Padres
Sung-Mun Song
(3B)
out — Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports Saturday that Song will open the 2026 regular season on the injured list due to a right oblique strain.
Out
Jason Adam
(RP)
day-to-day — Adam (quadriceps) pitched a perfect inning with one strikeout against Colorado in a Cactus League appearance Friday.
Day-To-Day
Yuki Matsui
(RP)
out — Manager Craig Stammen said Friday that Matsui (groin) will begin the season on the injured list, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com reports.
Out
Joe Musgrove
(SP)
out — Musgrove (elbow) has had his workload eased back after pitching against Team Great Britain on March 4, and it's uncertain if he'll be ramped up in time for Opening Day, per MLB.com.
Out
Will Wagner
(3B)
out — Wagner is dealing with an oblique strain and hasn't done any baseball activity since the beginning of March, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
Out
Matt Waldron
(SP)
out — Waldron (lower body) threw "about 25 pitches" in a live batting-practice session Thursday, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
Out
Bryan Hoeing
(RP)
out — Hoeing (elbow) will undergo flexor tendon surgery and miss the entire 2026 season, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
Out
Jhony Brito
(RP)
60-day IL — Brito (forearm) has been throwing bullpens in Padres camp, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
Griffin Canning
(SP)
out — Canning (Achilles) tossed a "high-intensity" bullpen session Tuesday, and his next step could be facing hitters, per MLB.com.
Out
Blake Hunt
(C)
day-to-day — Hunt is dealing with an oblique injury and has been shut down from activity, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
Day-To-Day
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ San Diego Padres
+6.8 EV
per $100 wagered
San Diego Padres
67%
Sharp Lean
"King (17K) vs injured Mariners + Petco under bias = Padres ML +6.8 EV, Under 7.5 +5.1 EV"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
58%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+8.0%
Line Movement
Open
N/A - early season game
Current
N/A - no books open yet
Movement
N/A
Early season (March 23): +15% under bias from cold weather/pitcher dominance
Petco Park: +12% under, suppresses HR by 20%
Model projects Padres ML at -135 fair odds vs typical -120 market pricing on King starts
FULL ANALYSIS
King's 17K edge over Hancock's walk machine (21 BB/1 IP) projects 58% Padres win prob at Petco, where unders hit 58% in March games <60F. Mariners missing Crawford/Miller lose 15% vs elite SP; model sees +6.8 EV on SD ML. CLV projects +5% steam to home once lines drop.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
●
67%
San Diego Padres -135 (DDN_model fair)
- Michael King (17 K leader) vs Mariners' injury-hit rotation with Miller OUT
SPREAD PICK
●
64%
San Diego Padres
- King's 17K dominance vs Mariners' Day-to-Day Crawford (key OBP threat)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
●
69%
UNDER 7.5 7.5
- Petco Park +12% under bias + early March temps <60F (+8% under)
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
King (17K) vs injured Mariners + Petco under bias = Padres ML +6.8 EV, Under 7.5 +5.1 EV
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