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Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers
Washington Nationals
Nationals
Washington Nationals
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 0.0
"Nats +229 ML has +65 EV vs omega 31.5% win prob despite -286 pricing and depleted Nats staff"
EV / $100
+5.2
Win Prob
32%
Edge
-18.5%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Washington Nationals None
68%
TOTAL over 9.5
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +286.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +14.5
Win Prob
31.5%
ML
218 / -218

Player Props Engine

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Los Angeles Dodgers

Washington Nationals

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Market Consensus - 234 / -270 ↑ -
Market Consensus 1.5 (142) - -
Market Consensus - - Over 9.5 (-103)
Fair Value PIN DE-VIG 149 / -149 244 / -244 O/U 104 / -104
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Los Angeles Dodgers

G
Gavin Stone
(SP) 60-day IL — Stone (shoulder) has resumed throwing, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
J
Jake Cousins
(RP) 60-day IL — The Dodgers transferred Cousins (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Blake Snell
(SP) 15-day IL — Manager Dave Roberts told reporters Wednesday that Snell (shoulder) will "likely" face hitters once the Dodgers return to Los Angeles from their upcoming six-game road trip, David Vassegh of AM 570 LA Sports reports.
15-Day-IL
E
Enrique Hernandez
(1B) 60-day IL — Hernandez (elbow) took on-field batting practice at Dodger Stadium on Saturday, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Tommy Edman
(2B) 10-day IL — Edman (ankle) took on-field batting practice Saturday and is progressing well, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.
10-Day-IL
B
Brock Stewart
(RP) 15-day IL — Stewart (shoulder) will begin throwing live batting practice Friday, Sonja Chen of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
E
Evan Phillips
(RP) 60-day IL — Phillips (elbow) threw a bullpen session to a squatting catcher March 17, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
B
Brusdar Graterol
(RP) 15-day IL — Graterol (shoulder) was spotted playing catch out to about 90 feet Monday, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
B
Bobby Miller
(SP) 60-day IL — The Dodgers placed Miller (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
L
Landon Knack
(SP) 15-day IL — The Dodgers placed Knack on the 15-day injured list Monday due to an intercostal strain, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL

Washington Nationals

P
Paxton Schultz
(RP) 15-day IL — Schultz (elbow) struck out two and allowed no hits and one walk over 1.2 scoreless innings in his first rehab appearance Saturday for Triple-A Rochester.
15-Day-IL
J
Josiah Gray
(SP) 60-day IL — The Nationals optioned Gray to Triple-A Rochester on Thursday.
60-Day-IL
D
DJ Herz
(SP) 60-day IL — Herz (elbow) threw a bullpen session Friday, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Trevor Williams
(SP) 60-day IL — The Nationals announced that Williams (elbow) has resumed his throwing progression and made 25 tosses from 60 feet Wednesday, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Joan Adon
(RP) out — no
Out
T
Tyler Stuart
(SP) out — Stuart underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this week, Bobby Blanco of MASNSports.com reports.
Out
J
Jarlin Susana
(RP) out — Susana underwent surgery last week to repair a right lat tear, Spencer Nusbaum of The Washington Post reports.
Out
T
Travis Sykora
(SP) out — Sykora will undergo a UCL reconstruction on his right elbow in two weeks, Andrew Golden of The Washington Post reports.
Out
Game Preview
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Washington Nationals
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 1.5 (142)
Total Over 9.5
Key Injuries
Gavin Stone 60-Day-IL
Jake Cousins 60-Day-IL
Paxton Schultz 15-Day-IL
Josiah Gray 60-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Washington Nationals

+5.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Washington Nationals 65% Sharp Lean
"Nats +229 ML has +65 EV vs omega 31.5% win prob despite -286 pricing and depleted Nats staff"
32% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 32%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -18.5%
Line Movement
Current LAD -286 / Nationals +229 / Total 9.5
Movement No movement data
Nationals +229 offers massive +EV vs omega_model's 31.5% win prob (breakeven 30.4%) despite -286 pricing on Dodgers
Model: 52.8% win rate | n=218 — MLB 115-103 (N=218); moneylines profitable in lean/strong tiers
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega model shows dead even matchup at 0.0 spread/12-12 scores but market has Dodgers -286 due to Yamamoto edge vs Nats' decimated rotation (5 pitchers out). Yesterday's Nats ML loss creates contrarian value at +229 (31.5% model prob beats 30.4% breakeven). Total 9.5 vs model 24.0 screams over but totals losing across calibration tiers.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Washington Nationals 0.0
+5.2 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE Washington Nationals None
+65.2 EV 68% 1.5u
TOTAL over 9.5
+3.8 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 68%
Los Angeles Dodgers -145
  • 62% model win prob vs 59% implied; Nationals missing Adon/Gray/Williams/Herz (pitching depth crushed)
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5
  • Dodgers superior offense (Ohtani 0.00 ERA early, Betts 5 hits) vs Nationals pitching injuries (4 SPs IL)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
UNDER 8.0
  • Model total 8.0 with Nationals depleted staff likely suppressing runs early season
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Dodgers -145 ML (+3.2 EV): 62% model prob vs 59% implied, Nationals 4 SPs IL obliterates matchup
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