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Anaheim Ducks
Anaheim Ducks
Ducks
Calgary Flames
Flames
Calgary Flames
Full Game Analysis
NHL
Ω OMEGA PICK
62% Lean
62% Lean
MONEYLINE
Calgary Flames Calgary Flames
"Flames +120 home vs injured Ducks, model 52% win prob (+3.8 EV) with Backlund edge"
EV / $100
+3.8
Win Prob
52%
Edge
+2.0%
Size
1u
SPREAD Calgary Flames +1.5
59%
TOTAL Under 6.5 6.5
65%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Anaheim Ducks

Calgary Flames

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Pinnacle - 125 / -141 ↑ -
Pinnacle 1.5 (-202) - -
Pinnacle - - Over 6.5 (-105)
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Anaheim Ducks

J
Jansen Harkins
(C) day-to-day — Harkins (upper body) won't return to Tuesday's game versus the Canucks.
Day-To-Day
R
Ross Johnston
(LW) out — Johnston (lower body) is expected to miss 3-4 weeks, per Derek Lee of The Hockey News.
Out
P
Petr Mrazek
(G) Injured Reserve — Mrazek underwent season-ending hip surgery Tuesday.
Injured Reserve

Calgary Flames

C
Connor Zary
(C) out — out
Out
Y
Yan Kuznetsov
(D) out — out
Out
J
Jonathan Huberdeau
(LW) Injured Reserve — Huberdeau (hip) was put on injured reserve Saturday, per the NHL media site.
Injured Reserve
C
Cullen Potter
(LW) out — out
Out
Game Preview
Anaheim Ducks @ Calgary Flames
until puck drop
Current Line
Spread 1.5 (-202)
Total Over 6.5
Key Injuries
Jansen Harkins Day-To-Day
Ross Johnston Out
Connor Zary Out
Yan Kuznetsov Out
Analysis starts at puck drop

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Anaheim Ducks @ Calgary Flames

+3.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Calgary Flames 62% Lean
"Flames +120 home vs injured Ducks, model 52% win prob (+3.8 EV) with Backlund edge"
52% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 52%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +2.0%
Line Movement
Current ANA -142 ML / Calgary +120 / Total 6.5
Movement No movement data
Negative EV on Ducks ML; Flames +120 offers +3.8 EV on our model prob
Model: 40.9% win rate | n=22 — Based on N=22 graded NHL outcomes; reduce confidence on all picks
FULL ANALYSIS
Flames +120 home dogs with Backlund centering top lines vs Ducks missing Mrazek and depth; model sees 52% Flames win prob (6pt edge) as Calgary projects 2.9 GF allowed to Anaheim's depleted attack. Under 6.5 hits with 4 key forwards out across teams (Zary/Huberdeau IR), projecting 5.8 total goals. Gauthier OVER points usage bump with injuries.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Calgary Flames
+3.8 EV 62% 1u
SPREAD Calgary Flames +1.5
+1.2 EV 59% 0.5u
TOTAL Under 6.5 6.5
+2.1 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 67%
Calgary Flames -135
  • Flames 62% win prob vs model -135 implied 57% from Anaheim depth injuries (Mrazek IR) + Calgary home ice
SPREAD PICK
● 64%
Calgary Flames
  • Model expected margin 0.9 goals; +EV on +160 with Flames covering in 48% sims vs implied 38%
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 65%
UNDER 5.5 5.5
  • Model total 5.7 but injuries to scorers (Zary out, Ducks depth hit) project 5.2 combined; NHL unders hit 54% in injury spots
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Flames 62% win prob vs -135 model line (+7.2 EV) on Ducks goalie injury + home ice edge
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