Home › MLS › Austin FC @ Inter Miami CF
MLS
Austin FC
Austin FC
FC
Inter Miami CF
CF
Inter Miami CF
Full Game Analysis
MLS
Ω OMEGA PICK
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Austin FC Austin FC 1.5
"Omega spread 0.0 vs MIA -1.5 market (+1.5pt edge) + total 13.0 vs 3.5 (+9.5pt edge); Austin +550 ML +56 EV/$100"
EV / $100
+4.2
Win Prob
28%
Edge
-21.6%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Austin FC None
68%
TOTAL over 3.5
70%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +1.5
Total
13.0
Edge: +9.5
Win Prob
28.4%
ML
252 / -252

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

Austin FC

Inter Miami CF

Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
—
Moneyline
INT -100 / AUS -100
Win Probability
50% - 50%

Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.

Game Preview
Austin FC @ Inter Miami CF
until kickoff
Analysis starts at kickoff

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Austin FC @ Inter Miami CF

+4.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Austin FC 65% Sharp Lean
"Omega spread 0.0 vs MIA -1.5 market (+1.5pt edge) + total 13.0 vs 3.5 (+9.5pt edge); Austin +550 ML +56 EV/$100"
28% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 28%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -21.6%
Line Movement
Open No open line provided
Current MIA -1.5 / 3.5 / MIA -270 / AUS +550
Movement No movement data
-270 ML requires 73% win prob to breakeven; our 28% model prob = massive negative EV. Spread -1.5 has 60.8% breakeven but omega even spread = no value
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega model sees dead even matchup at 6.4-6.4 expected goals (spread 0.0) vs market MIA -1.5/-270 juice; +550 Austin ML has 56 EV/$100 since breakeven just 15% vs our 28%. Total 3.5 is 9.5pts soft vs omega 13.0 projection. Messi 1.0 goal line value but cap props at 65 w/o market lines.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Austin FC 1.5
+4.2 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE Austin FC None
+56.4 EV 68% 1.5u
TOTAL over 3.5
+8.1 EV 70% 1.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 65%
Austin FC 600
  • Omega win prob 28.4% vs market-implied 14.3% breakeven (+14.1% edge at +600)
SPREAD PICK
● 68%
Austin FC 1.5
  • Omega spread 0.0 vs market -1.5 creates 1.5pt edge on Austin +1.5
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 3.5
  • Omega total 13.0 vs market 3.5 reveals massive underpricing (9.5pt edge)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Austin +1.5 & +600 ML: omega 0.0 spread vs market -1.5 (+12.4 EV spread / +85 EV ML); total 3.5 vs model 13.0
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