MLS
Red Bull New York
York
Chicago Fire FC
FC
Whale Activity Detected
$781246 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home
Polymarket: 303 trades
Kalshi: 232 trades
Largest: $24279
Ω OMEGA LINE
OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +1.5
Total
7.5
Edge: +4.0
Win Prob
45.0%
ML
122 / -122
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGARed Bull New York
Chicago Fire FC
ELO Model Lines
MODELSpread
4.3
Moneyline
CHI -185
/
RED 185
Win Probability
65%
-
35%
ELO model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.
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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS
Red Bull New York @ Chicago Fire FC
+9.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Red Bull New York
65%
Sharp Lean
"Even high-total models vs juiced CHI favorite; +82 EV NYRB ML +380, +22 EV over 3.5"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
38%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
-12.0%
Line Movement
Current
CHI -1.5 (+130) / NYRB +1.5 (-180) | O/U 3.5 | ML CHI -190 / NYRB +380
Movement
No significant movement
Massive underdog value on NYRB ML as market implies only 20.8-34.5% but posterior 38%
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega Poisson/ELO projects dead-even 3.8-3.8 (total 7.6) but DraftKings juices CHI -1.5/-190 implying 65.5% home win vs our 62% posterior; +3.5pp edge NYRB ML (+82 EV), ~70% NYRB +1.5 cover. Over 3.5 crushes at 63.7% posterior (+13.7pp, +22 EV) with MC/Dixon confirming 6.4-7.5 total. Extreme whales on CHI but contradict Tier 1 models; degraded data caps conf.
SHARP MONEY
Extreme whale volume ($754k from 59 profitable wallets) on home despite models even
Recommended Sizing
1.0u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
60%
Red Bull New York 380
- Posterior 38% away win vs market 34.5% implied (+3.5pp edge); breakeven only 21%
SPREAD PICK
●
65%
Red Bull New York 1.5
- Omega even spread vs market CHI -1.5; MC margin -0.0 std 2.6 implies ~70% NYRB +1.5 cover
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
62%
OVER 3.5
- Posterior 63.7% over 3.5 vs market 50% (+13.7pp); Omega/MC/Dixon project 6.4-7.6 total
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Over 3.5 +13.7pp Bayesian edge (posterior 63.7%) w/ Omega 7.5 total vs mgmt 3.5; NYRB +1.5 catches 1.5pt Omega discrepancy
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