Home › NBA › Dallas Mavericks @ LA Clippers
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
Dallas Mavericks
Mavericks
103 - 116
Final
LA Clippers
Clippers
LA Clippers
Full Game Analysis
NBA
Ω OMEGA PICK
64% Sharp Lean
64% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Dallas Mavericks Dallas Mavericks 12.5
"OMEGA -3.0 vs mkt -12.5 (9.5pt edge) + total 203 vs 236.5; DAL +12.5 / under 236.5 value explosion"
EV / $100
+18.2
Win Prob
62%
Edge
+12.3%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Dallas Mavericks None
62%
TOTAL under 236.5
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
-3.0
Edge: +9.5
Total
203.0
Edge: -33.5
Win Prob
62.3%
ML
-165 / 165

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Dallas Mavericks

LA Clippers

Box Score + OMEGA Props

Injury Report

Dallas Mavericks

B
Brandon Williams
(G) day-to-day — Williams (illness) has been ruled out for Wednesday's game against the Suns.
Day-To-Day
P
P.J. Washington
(F) day-to-day — Washington (elbow) has been ruled out for Wednesday's game against Phoenix.
Day-To-Day
K
Klay Thompson
(G) day-to-day — Thompson (rest) has been ruled out for Wednesday's game against the Suns.
Day-To-Day
N
Naji Marshall
(F) day-to-day — Marshall (hip) has been ruled out for Wednesday's game against the Suns.
Day-To-Day
D
Daniel Gafford
(F) out — Gafford (shoulder) has been ruled out for Wednesday's game against the Suns.
Out
C
Caleb Martin
(F) out — Martin (heel) has been ruled out for Wednesday's game against the Suns.
Out
K
Kyrie Irving
(G) out — Irving (knee) will miss the remainder of the 2025-26 season, ESPN's Shams Charania reports.
Out
D
Dereck Lively II
(C) out — Lively successfully underwent surgery on his right foot Sunday.
Out

LA Clippers

D
Darius Garland
(G) day-to-day — Garland has been ruled out for Wednesday's game against the Thunder due to left toe injury management.
Day-To-Day
I
Isaiah Jackson
(F) out — Jackson (ankle) could return as soon as for Sunday's regular-season finale against the Thunder, Janis Carr of The Orange County Register reports.
Out
Y
Yanic Konan Niederhauser
(C) out — Niederhauser has been diagnosed with a Lisfranc injury in his right foot and will require surgery. He's been ruled out for the remainder of the 2025-26 season, Joey Linn of SI.com reports.
Out
B
Bradley Beal
(G) out — Beal will undergo season-ending surgery on his left hip, ESPN's Shams Charania reports.
Out
Box Score
FINAL
Dallas Mavericks
Mavericks
103
-
LA Clippers
Clippers
116
Dallas Mavericks 12.5
64% conf
L

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Dallas Mavericks @ LA Clippers

+18.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Dallas Mavericks 64% Sharp Lean
"OMEGA -3.0 vs mkt -12.5 (9.5pt edge) + total 203 vs 236.5; DAL +12.5 / under 236.5 value explosion"
62% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 62%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +12.3%
Line Movement
Current LAC -12.5 / 236.5 / ML -650/+470
Movement No movement data
Massive +EV on DAL ML +470 (breakeven 68.5%, our 62.3% still +EV due to odds value); spread away +EV huge vs -12.5
Model: 48.9% win rate | n=403 — Spread/moneyline profitable in leans; totals losing—cap total conf <60; vs LAC 14-4 strong
FULL ANALYSIS
OMEGA -3.0 vs market -12.5 screams value on DAL +12.5 after heavy injuries both sides; MC confirms 48.4% cover at -3.0 (explodes vs 12.5). Total 203.0 vs 236.5 is massive under edge but totals losing in calibration. DAL ML +470 offers +14.7 EV despite 62% model prob (breakeven 68.5%). Data degraded, conf reduced.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

OMEGA Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Dallas Mavericks 12.5
+18.2 EV 64% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Dallas Mavericks None
+14.7 EV 62% 1u
TOTAL under 236.5
+21.4 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 62%
LA Clippers -165
  • Model win prob 62.3% meets -165 breakeven exactly; lean tier ML 54.3% WR profitable
SPREAD PICK
● 60%
LA Clippers -3.0
  • OMEGA model projects Clippers 103-100 (+3pt edge) with MC home cover 48% vs 50% breakeven
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 203.0
  • MC simulation shows 50.1% under hit rate vs 52.4% breakeven; model totals losing across tiers
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Clippers -3 (60%) model edge with 14-4 historical vs LAC; Mavs decimated by Irving/Lively out but data quality limits to 0.5u
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